Warning - Inflation, Hyperinflation, Stagflation coming
The FED has now published a report, that shows that during the last 600 years, and after each virus outbreak, company wins very much decline, while salaries grow.
Earlier outbreaks and plagues decimated the population. The labour workforce was drastically diminished and companies had to pay higher wages as they needed to entice the workers.
This pandemic, hopefully will not decimate the populations so much and, the majority of those dying are the elderly or sick who are no longer part of the workforce.
Companies may not be able to recover and many may shut down altogether. That could actually mean lower wages as there will be an excess of available labour trying to get employment with the companies that do survive.
In reality we can only guess what the outcome will be.
Earlier outbreaks and plagues decimated the population. The labour workforce was drastically diminished and companies had to pay higher wages as they needed to entice the workers.
This pandemic, hopefully will not decimate the populations so much and, the majority of those dying are the elderly or sick who are no longer part of the workforce.
Companies may not be able to recover and many may shut down altogether. That could actually mean lower wages as there will be an excess of available labour trying to get employment with the companies that do survive.
In reality we can only guess what the outcome will be.
Yes, you are right.
There might be the difference to actually All pandemics before [600 years], that this time much more people will survive.
However, what is sure is that companies profit will decline or give them a big loss.
Governments are now reaching all time highs in debt; the US 2.3 trillion, the EU is now said to fund a fond with 1.5 trillion, addtionally to the 500 billion (which makes 2 tril.).
All the south european countries had big tax income and a big fraction of their economy because of the tourism.
Just an update:
Gold has risen to new all time highs; now going into a range on a high level.
EUR/USD has fallen, as predicted by many analysts long before the crisis... On a long view, USD is stronger than EUR.
The german government says it sees a recession of 6% coming; many million people are unemployed right now.
They are being paid by the governments funds (taxes), but that will minimize the buying strength of people (for goods).
Companies that profit until now are online marketing shops, deliverers, pharmaceutic section, and supermarkets.
Bitcoin is now 18 days before halving; it is on a strong level over 7.6k USD.
A clear buy signal in my eyes.
Gold has risen to new all time highs; now going into a range on a high level.
Gold is still around $200 lower than its 2011 high and $ is the world standard.
It may be at all time highs when priced in Euros or GBP, but this is due to exchange rates.
Gold is still around $200 lower than its 2011 high and $ is the world standard.
It may be at all time highs when priced in Euros or GBP, but this is due to exchange rates.
Welll yes, it is on all time highs on EUR.
US has 3.7 trillion deficit, unemployment of around 30 million!
I just think, that diversifying your own portfolio is a must these days.
The question is, what to buy...
I belive in Gold, more than I do in fiat-money, and though I am a little sceptical towards the whole crypto-industry, the ideas and solutions over there are very interesting.
This is why I hold some bitcoins, additionally a little of ETH, XRP and ADA.
ETH is 2nd placed after bitcoin and hyped, XPR is being used by large banks already (Swift) and ADA is an insane technology, that might overcome all others...
Of course real stuff, like holding stocks, is even better, but to diversify and participate at some future chances ain't wrong either ;
Cheers
And, end of the line:
BTC at around 13k - double of what it was a half year ago
gold at 1.9k, half year ago at it was at 1.4k.
Well picked stocks of high demanded sectors have risen:
Online Shops, amazon, etsy & co.
IT solutions, Microsoft, Oracle, SAP
Internet Companies, Google (Alphabet), Rocket Internet
Entertainment, Netflix, WarnerBros., and a lot more
Tech-Suppliers, Apple, Samsung, aso.
Pharmaceutic, espec. those that run a vaccine test on covid-19
Supermarkets & Chains
You got to have these in your portfolio.
Then again, look at the big ones that are undervalued, like VW etc.
And always keep some good stash of your money in alternative currencies, like swiss franc, singapore dollar, maybe russian rubel, japanese yen and british pound.
Bitcoin at 19k !!
I remember when it was at 4k before corona crisis.
A lot of potential here, when you know when to enter, when to leave.
The problem is that people are always excited at the top and disappointed at the bottom.
The problem is that people are always excited at the top and disappointed at the bottom.
Yep.
But, one and a half year ago, when BTC was under 4k, I made my first investments (as you can see in the timeline of my profile, I recommended it to other traders too).
Now, of course, its too late, with prices above 27k.
Reasons why BTC will become the new 'Gold': [in quotation marks, as it of course can never become a physical good]
Just as predicted one and a half year ago, BTC has 'crashed' up and almost risen to 30k $!
BTC, in near future, will be more favorited than Gold, in terms of safe haven.
Why? - Because you can sell btc very fast and at any time, while Gold does not offer this flexibility.
On the other side, Gold has always been a metal, that had times of low validation.
People tend to sell their gold, because other than looking at it, is not possible [if you do not use it for jewelry].
Additionally, one must keep it safe and secret.
That means, that BTC will become very attractive for the really big investments.
It is much easier to deal with it, as you can keep it on a hard disk.
BTC, other than Gold, is a 'currency', so you can even pay with it - though in my eyes, this will only become the 2nd important reason for holding it.
I see prices of BTC not lower than 10k in future; anyone who has bought around that price is lucky and should keep it.
> It is, seen from a technical-analysis as well as from a fundamental point of view just not imageable, that it could go under this level. That would just be a catastrophy and destroy all confidence and trust into this currency.
People, who have bought around 20k, must be very patient and cautious, as BTC could go down to that level again at some time. But the long term trend is clearly above 20k.
Have a nice new year 2021!
Other reasons that speak for my perspective:
1) First 8 years were speculative - that is totally normal for a new asset, that must first provide some sort of feedback, before it can be seen as investment asset.
It must pass the speculative time; just like Tesla stocks had to pass it. Afterwards, it gets interesting for the really big boys, that do investment - and not trading.
2) Holder type changed: As there have been many spec. traders, that came into the game before (and sold at 17k, which caused a massive drop to under 4k), now there are much more serious investors in this trading floor.
Btc already reaches volume of trading, that is not far away from typical assets like oil, metals, etc.
3) Big volume makes the market much more stable.
And: Popularity of bitcoin is very important in this analysis, as it is the 'one' crypto currency.
This is no more story of typical crypto smash, as it has been before (but foremost for all kinds of cryptos, that no one uses).
I think that btc has survived the testing phase and will become a crucial investment asset in future.
Take care.
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as many may know, we are facing a great recession during the next months.
However, it is more than likely from todays perspective, that we also will have an inflation.
The FED has now published a report, that shows that during the last 600 years, and after each virus outbreak, company wins very much decline, while salaries grow.
What doest that mean?!
That means that the prices also start to grow!
Especially, when there are some production or delivery issues.
Now, that south korea said that already 'cured' people again got sick by the virus, it may mean that until there is no cure developed, people will have to obey distance rules, stay at home [not consume], have trouble in getting new jobs, etc.
Only max. 5% of the european or american population have been sick until now, and still the virus has brought communities to their peak of what they can take...
So, if we get some production and delivery issues here, together with the inflation and big losses of companies and a huge debt of states, it is time to maybe park your money in some safe havens.
What can that be?!
- Safe currencies like chf, aud, cad, nzd, gbp but also rub as it is covered by much gold [that was bought by the russian government in big style]
- Gold, Silver, Omnium, Iridium - very rare metals.
- Jewels
- Your own real estate with preferably some sort of garden, where you can grow plants etc.
- Stocks from very big companies, that will forever survive.
Especially from this 3 sectors: Food (Production & Distribution), Military & Defense, Pharmaceutics
It's important to own these stocks; ETF, fonds etc are not enough.
Just my 2 cents...
Take care.