EURUSD Technical Analysis 2014 06.04 - 13.04: Breakdown to Reversal? - page 2
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Press review
newdigital, 2014.04.11 07:54
2014-04-11 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - CPI]
if actual > forecast/actual = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
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China Inflation Rises 2.4% On Year In March
Inflation in China was up 2.4 percent on year in March, the government said on Friday.
That was in line with expectations and up from 2.0 percent in February.
Among the individual components, food prices jumped 4.1 percent on year, while non-food prices added 1.5 percent.
The data also showed that producer prices remained stuck in deflation, contracting 2.3 percent on year. That missed forecasts for -2.2 percent following the 2.0 percent decline in the previous month.
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EURUSD, M5, 2014.04.11
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EURUSD M5 : 6 pips price movement by CNY - CPI news event
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Press review
newdigital, 2014.04.11 10:57
Trading the News: U. of Michigan Confidence (based on dailyfx article)A rebound in the U. of Michigan Confidence survey may spur a larger pullback in the EUR/USD as it raises the outlook for the U.S. economy.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
Indeed, positive developments coming out of the world’s largest economy may put increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later, but it seems as though Fed Chair Janet Yellen remains reluctant to move away from the zero-interest rate policy as the central bank head continues to highlight the ongoing slack in the real economy.
The resilience in private sector consumption along with the pickup in consumer credit may generate a meaningful rebound in household sentiment, and an upbeat print may generate a bullish reaction in the USD as it limits the Fed’s scope to retain its highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period of time.
However, subdued wage growth paired with the persistent slack in the real economy may spark a further downturn in consumer confidence, and a dismal development may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the greenback as the FOMC retains a rather cautious outlook for the region.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: Household Sentiment Rises to 81.0 or Higher
- Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
- If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: Consumer Confidence Survey Disappoints- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseEUR/USD H4
March 2014 U. of Michigan Confidence Survey
AUDUSD M5 : 26 pips price movement by USD - Michigan Consumer Sentiment news event :
GBPUSD M5 : 38 pips price movement by USD - Michigan Consumer Sentiment news event :
NZDUSD M5 : 26 pips price movement by USD - Michigan Consumer Sentiment news event :
The University of Michigan Confidence survey missed estimates last month to come in at 79.0 vs. 82.0 as surveyed by economists. The figure has been on the general decline since hitting a high over summer not seen since 2007. February’s reading led to a slight uptick in the EUR/USD, but small move did not hold into the close.