Reducing market uncertainty with the adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) - page 3

 

A reading suggestion for anyone studying ways to use AI in the market.

Adaptive Markets - Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought - Andrew W. Lo
http://alo.mit.edu/book/adaptive-markets/

Adaptive Markets
Adaptive Markets
  • alo.mit.edu
Adaptive Markets was more than 20 years in the making. Having been introduced to the Efficient Markets Hypothesis as an economics Ph.D. student, Andrew W. Lo struggled to reconcile the gap between this beautiful theory and its sometimes-less-compelling empirical implications. In 1988, together with A. Craig MacKinlay, Lo published “Stock Market...
 
Rogerio Figurelli:

A reading suggestion for anyone studying ways to use AI in the market.

Adaptive Markets - Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought - Andrew W. Lo
http://alo.mit.edu/book/adaptive-markets/

interesting, but the latest scientific research and publication 2017, it means that the idea is slowly dying or hiding and preparing for a new revival...
 
@Philipp Negreshniy
interesting, but the latest scientific research and publication 2017, it means that the idea is slowly dying or hiding and preparing for a new revival...

Hi @Philipp Negreshniy, thank you for the contribution, maybe you are right, but my perspective is that unless one solves the problem of forecasting the future, mainly in the trading area, any idea (new or old) is open. The same goes for all areas of AI, and their recurring waves. Note that the very logic of evolutionary computation, based on the evolutionary principles proposed by Darwin, is as old as AI itself, and therefore, in my view, the laws of economics are subject to the advancement of technology and knowledge in this area.

 
Rogerio Figurelli:

Hi @Philipp Negreshniy, thank you for the contribution, maybe you are right, but my perspective is that unless one solves the problem of forecasting the future, mainly in the trading area, any idea (new or old) is open. The same goes for all areas of AI, and their recurring waves. Note that the very logic of evolutionary computation, based on the evolutionary principles proposed by Darwin, is as old as AI itself, and therefore, in my view, the laws of economics are subject to the advancement of technology and knowledge in this area.

You are right - the laws of economics depend on the advancement of technologies, and the advancement of technologies is due to the laws of economics, the main thing is that it does not happen that this circle closes itself as an algorithm in an endless loop:)
 

There is a difference between an AI that (only) has learned to trade, and an AI that has become so smart that it learned to manipulate other traders decisions by exposing them to stimuli like for example fake new's. 

The first example AI will always depend on training over historic data and repetitive pattern recognition, while the second example AI actually controls the market on forehand.

This is the real danger of AI and at some point, many believe it will outsmart us when it is allowed to become creative and re-write it's own source code and start the real digital revolution.

 
Marco vd Heijden:

There is a difference between an AI that (only) has learned to trade, and an AI that has become so smart that it learned to manipulate other traders decisions by exposing them to stimuli like for example fake new's. 

The first example AI will always depend on training over historic data and repetitive pattern recognition, while the second example AI actually controls the market on forehand.

This is the real danger of AI and at some point, many believe it will outsmart us when it is allowed to become creative and re-write it's own source code and start the real digital revolution.

Good point, regarding your market design by AI perspective. In my opinion, this could be true if AGI (artificial general intelligence) or ASI (artificial superintelligence) become a reality. But they are already dreams and most of the cases are just hype. In this sense, my perspective is the strength of people + machines competing against the weakness of people and/or machines alone.
 
Marco vd Heijden:

There is a difference between an AI that (only) has learned to trade, and an AI that has become so smart that it learned to manipulate other traders decisions by exposing them to stimuli like for example fake new's. 

The first example AI will always depend on training over historic data and repetitive pattern recognition, while the second example AI actually controls the market on forehand.

This is the real danger of AI and at some point, many believe it will outsmart us when it is allowed to become creative and re-write it's own source code and start the real digital revolution.

Yes, a revolution is a great danger, and if the robots themselves will be authors of the program code, then who legally should be responsible for the big mess created by all of this?

But why talk about the possibility of a future revolution, if such questions may arise even now.

For example, I'm working in the freelance service and sometimes generate machine learning source code modules for my customers. Who is responsible for this code — probably I. But some customers take this code, sign their logo and put it in the market service. Who is responsible for this code — is it really me, again or maybe this is customer or this is robot ie program that generated the source code originally?

And this is important because almost always when the EA's starts to lose it is the same revolution;)

 

There isn't really much to say in terms of responsibility if you can not really estimate the outcome.

This is the difference between doing something even though you know it will have bad consequences, and doing something without knowing what is going to happen.

Like a morality.

You can perfectly make a agreement on the rights of the products you create.

This should be done in the negotiation before accepting the task.

Do you think that a gun factory is responsible for all the deaths their product's cause ?

I don't think so.