Something Interesting in Financial Video - page 18
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What Is Forex? SIMPLIFIED
Anti-Martingale System: Profit By Reversing "Classic" Martingale Strategy
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Trading: What is Martingale and Is It Reasonable to Use It?
Proximus, 2013.08.24 03:00
It works if the net profit factor is above 1 and the win rate is higher than 50%, martingale is a double or nothing either doubles your money or doubles your losses, so if you have a 60% win rate with 1:1 RR ratio you can use it safely, if not then dont.
Whats funny about forex that you dont start from 50% win rate from the start because the market is changing not a fix probability set like a roulette or blackjack game.So if you start it like a betting system you will have like 40% win rate with 1:1 RR if you take trades random, maybe on the 9999999999999999999999th trade you hit 49.9% but thats still not enough.So it is better to filter out crappy trades first and then increase your win rate to be martingale compatible! And this is the advantage of investing vs gambling, you can filter out bad trades, on the roulette or blackjack you cant filter out bad hands or spins unless you cheat, but surely not the statistical way!!
This is how my 60% win rate, real martingale system looks like, and how it should suppose to look like, on LEVEL 7 settings (2^7)
Here are my martingale type systems:
1) CLASSICAL MARTINGALE AFTER 567 TRADES (60% WR, 1:1 RR)
As you can see after 500 trades it barely hit LEVEL 7 and even if we would lost that we would lose only half of the profit and continue from there to grow it back!
Of course you need a big account for this like one that can support like 10 lot size trades to be only 1% account risk, but statistically its very improbable to blow your account since its only 1% risk versus huge potential gains...The martingale presented in this article is BS with like 40-45% win rate which is sadly not enough, not even 50% is, must be 51 or higher...
2) PROGRESSIVE DYNAMIC GROWTH MARTINGALE (60% WR, 1:1 RR)
3) PROGRESSIVE STATIC GROWTH MARTINGALE (60% WR, 1:1 RR)
4) ANTI MARTINGALE or INVERSE MARTINGALE (60% WR, 1:1 RR)
enjoy and good programming ;)
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.23 07:42
Martingale, Hedging and Grid
The forum threads
CodeBase
The articles
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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
How money became worthless....
Soewono Effendi, 2021.12.19 03:12
How To Trade News Events: Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price that consumers pay for those goods. Released at 8:30 am eastern standard on approximately the 15th of each month, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the changes in prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services.
The question that naturally arises when hearing this is wouldn’t those two numbers be the same or at least move in tandem with one another? The answer to that question is not necessarily, for the following reasons:
The important thing to understand here is that while changes in PPI are normally looked at as having predictive power as to changes in the CPI, a rise or fall in the PPI does not necessarily mean the same rise or fall in the CPI. As this is the case, and as the CPI is the end price paid by the consumer, this number best represents the level of inflation in the US economy.
In addition to showing fluctuations in price for different areas of the country, the CPI also shows the fluctuation in price for different groups of products such as housing, transportation, medical care etc. This allows traders to see not only the price fluctuations of the overall economy but also for different areas of the economy.
There are two main CPI numbers reported which are the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) and the CPI for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which basically give two separate numbers for the price increases experienced by working people and the price increases experienced by all consumers.
As with the PPI the Consumer Price Index is also presented without volatile food and energy included. This “Core CPI” number or CPI-U minus food and energy is the most widely followed number.
Full text of video :
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Basic Set-ups and Stop Placement
Most price action traders place buy or sell stop orders with a pre-determined stop loss level, and a take profit or target level. The buy or sell stop sets the level that price much reach for the order to be filled; the stop loss level sets the margin of loss that a trader will accept before closing the position; the take profit level sets the level at which to automatically close a successful position.
Basically, you determine risk based on where you are placing your stop, and then determine your target with regard to this risk level; commonly, traders will aim for at least a 1:3 risk to reward ratio, although scalpers and those who trade on shorter time frames often have to accept smaller ratios.
The buy or sell stop, or entry level, is typically set at a significant support or resistance level so that it will only be filled when price has broken definitively in the desired direction; by setting strategic entry levels in their orders, traders can ensure that they enter trades with the momentum of the market.
Perhaps the most basic set-up is the pinbar, which, if you remember has an open and close within the previous bar, and a wick at least 3 times the length of the candle body, protruding beyond the levels of prior bars.
The long wick and short body implies that traders have made a strong attempt to push price in one direction, but price has returned to earlier levels, often indicating the possibility of a reversal in trend direction.
The basic way to trade a pinbar is to place the stop loss level at the extreme of the wick, and to place your entry level above the body in a bullish scenario, and below the body in a bearish scenario. the target is set relative to the risk level represented by the stop loss, often at a resistance level in a bullish scenario, or at a support level in a bearish scenario.
Another basic strategy is the inside bar, a bar or series of bars contained by the preceding bar; since the shrinking candle size implies consolidation, it can mean that a big move is on the way, either a strong continuation of the current trend, or a reversal. Because the price direction is uncertain, traders often place a orders on both sides of the inside bar, so that a downward movement will trigger a sell, and an upward movement will trigger a buy. A liberal entry point would be set just beyond the high or low of the inside bar; a more conservative entry point would be at the open or close of the preceding mother bar.
Inside bars are more effective to trade on larger time frame charts because they are so common on faster chart.
Two Examples
To conclude, we have two actual filled orders from trader Simit Patel. The first is a pin-bar style order placed on the Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc pair on January 6th to sell at .85341, the black line, with a stop loss at .85995, both of which are historical resistance levels. the take profit level is set at .823333.
We can see that later on in the same day of simit's order, price reached the sell stop level at .85341, before dropping almost exactly to simit's target level of 8.23333
This second trade as in inside-bar style order place on the euro/british pound pair on December 12th. Simit sets his sell stop order at the black line, .84026, and his stop loss at the red line, about .84750, and his target the green line down at .80978. we can see that after his order was place, price did reach his sell stop order, just before a major reversal in price, allowing Simit to take profit when price begins to look bullish again, around .82800
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Candlesticks - Doji
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Don`t read this thread..Make Money with it.
Sergey Golubev, 2022.02.15 14:35
Improved candlestick pattern recognition illustrated by the example of Doji
One of the advantages of candlestick patterns is their simplicity: their description consists of only a few phrases, while the analysis handles only a few bars or even only one and thus it is accessible even to beginners.
Another advantage is the absence of specific requirements regarding the terminal and the hardware, as the analysis does not build any resource-intensive indicators. This fact was especially important decades ago, when computers were not as advanced as they are today. Many of the candlestick patterns were introduced in those days.
However, behind the simplicity of candlestick patterns, there is also a serious drawback, which can be eliminated by using the significantly increased capabilities of modern trading automation tools. This disadvantage is connected with the rough rounding of market situations to bar limits, which of course affects the efficiency of trading.
Something to watch (to read) during the weekend:
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Perfect Storm – Commodity and Crude Oil Prices To Go Higher?Chris Vermeulen sits down with Jim Goddard to discuss precious metals and crude oil’s latest moves. We’ve seen a pretty strong pullback in the last trading sessions yet may see crude oil continue to go higher. Copper miners have done exceptionally well and are primed and ready to have a pretty big rally.
Data Announcements: Non-Farm Payrolls, GDP Figures and Central Bank Interventions
The most obvious one is the USA Non-Farm Payroll Numbers; the unemployment rate, initial unemployment claims and consumer sentiment tend to account for the largest moves in both US and British markets. It is possible to trade this data announcement but it is quite hard to guage the immediate reaction of the market. Other important data include the GDP figures, consumers price index and central bank interventions.
Trading the Oil Price
Crude oil can be effected by political tensions and people's views on the economy; it is a very volatile market and can easily move 200 to 400 points a day. It is as such one of the more volatile markets out there.