How to make someone believe the backtest ? - page 2
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Ok thanks I just want to be given many opinions.
I'm agree, self train is actually a must. I've myself implemented such an algo. Results aren't each month the same, but globally remains alike. Then only the sl/tp/trail to be optimized. Optimization is a very long process, particularly with MT4.
More there.
Testing robots on live is very long and market conditions are always changing every month and year.
Well, you can have a macd set via a backtest of 10 years. The duration of the test shows that probabilistically it's a good setting. But things are not fixed, markets are fluids, dynamics, influenced by politicals events (not only the economical calendar).
Watch out crude oil :
There, your previously macd set via a 10 yrs backtest, won't match no longer and be sure that the oil market didn't change in a month.
I am a developer. Testing robots on live is very long and market conditions are always changing every month and year.
What you said, "market conditions are always changing..." is the truth, which is essential to solve your question. Based on this truth, even live-test should not be "made-believable".
Sorry, only less than 1% will win in trading, a zero-sum game, so I will not tell you the right answer that I have found .
Yet, with due respect, I can just give you a direction: (almost) none of the answers here are from the winner niche.
(FYI, Self-trained approach is close to or right in the winner camp)
I do this all the time.
I mean the future thing... not the backtesting, that's a waste of time... you can't change the past, but you can change the future
This is merely using statistic tools (with your pic. showing "ANACONDA"). Many people here do this routinely; this is nothing extraordinary--"change the future" (with R or Python...) is more than a overstatement :-)
Actually it is generated by Prophet and not Anaconda.
Anaconda is merely the framework for the data frames, and i do not believe you that many people use this, and i also do not believe you that markets change.
Most people just don't know what they are talking about they just talk and talk and talk but they have no idea what they are looking at.
And then others just blindly agree with it without thinking at all, like sheep.
This is merely using statistic tools (with your pic. showing "ANACONDA"). Many people here do this routinely; this is nothing extraordinary--"change the future" (with R or Python...) is more than a overstatement :-)
Okay. But markets do change. None of that would have been predictable on the basis of economical calendar nor previous datas (backtested or trained only once).
Self adapting systems are a must if you feel not reoptimizing all the time - on that point I'm agree to be the sheep ;-)
Why so many different opinions :)
...
Is it supposed to be reassuring ? Not sure you noticed, but the included testers is the only way to test an EA made in MQL4/5.
MT4 needs data to be imported, it's not brokers datas, but you can use the exact same spec' as your broker do. But the process is fastidiousness, just to set the spread to variable, the FXT should be hacked - and damn ... duration .... 1 year = 145h !
MT5 is supposed to do the whole job alone, downloading datas, setting & importing datas, using datas with the broker spec'. And it seems to be fully done, but indeed ... live results differs a lot - some say much more than would a MT4 backtest.
Dude, are you throwing that crude truth to our face, with no real solution ?
Share your secret, how do you validate your MT4/5 EA to live trading sessions ?!