Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS - page 4
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05 SEPTEMBER 2013: THE BANK OF JAPAN LEFT MONETARY POLICY WITHOUT CHANGES
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
Asian stock markets are not receiving any accurate impulses for long-term movement in the market, that is why indexes in general are moving in a different direction. Today we also can see multi-directional dynamics in the market. The worse indexes are looking so far like the index of continental China SSE, the Australian ASX, and also Japanese Nikkei.
Today's meeting of the Central Bank of Japan ended with the regulator deciding to leave the current monetary policy without change, having raised an assessment of the state of the economy for the first time in 2 months. There have already been offers from some board members to make the target rate of inflation more flexible, and not to go so strictly with the rate on 2%. The Japanese Yen practically didn't react to these statements, having continued to bargain under level 100 against the American Dollar, and the stock market started decreasing gradually. Meanwhile, the hi-tech exporting companies, which are most sensitive to a rate of national currency, today mainly grew, so Sony, Pioneer and Toshiba add about 1.2%.
In the meantime in the USA, the stock market finished yesterday’s trading session with an increase in the price of the main indexes. The reasons for that were the improvement of macroeconomic realities in the Euro zone and the USA, and also an increase in demand for shares of auto makers and the hi-tech companies. The revised data on gross domestic product of the Euro zone confirmed 0.3% growth of the economy of the region in the 2nd quarter, having a strengthened impression of the favorable data published the other day on the industry in Europe. In the USA, according to the report of the Beige book, the industry grew, and consumers began to spend more for entertainment, in particular, on tourism.
The vote of the Committee of foreign affairs at the Senate, in favor of a limited military blow to Syria, didn't scare investors. Let's note that the final decision will be made, most likely, in a few days. The price for Oil stabilized slightly and decreased in comparison to the last few days. Brent is traded on a level of 113.37$ per barrel, and Light is traded on a level of 106.63$ per barrel.
Today investors will be waiting for the conference of Mr.Dragi and the unemployment figures from the USA.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
06 SEPTEMBER 2013: THE RELEASE OF STRONG DATA FROM THE USA STRENGTHENED SALES OF EURO
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
Statistical data presented yesterday in America had a more considerable impact on the market than the meetings of two main Central Banks! As a result, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with small growth of the main indexes. Dow Jones Industrial Average raised on 0.04% to the level of 14937.50 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0.12% to a price of 1655.08 points, and the index of high-tech industries, Nasdaq Composite, went to plus on 0.27% and reached a point of 3658.78.
Strong macroeconomic data from the USA, in addition to the press conference of Mr. Dragi, became the last straw, and if the currency pair in the morning tried to keep next to the level 1.32 – it was unsuccessful, dropping to a local minimum on the level of 1.3109. Dragi began his speech with discussions on slights signs of recovery in the economy, but summed up by declaring that hard times have not yet passed. Moreover, he confirmed that it is impossible to exclude the need of lower rates.
Tension around the 'Syrian' question continues to grow. Accusations of attempted murder of the Minister of Internal Affairs of Egypt, confirms that all of the Middle East, not only Syria, is experiencing internal problems. It only maintains demand for the US Dollar, which is so popular in anticipation of the report on "non-farm” payrolls.
In the commodity market, Brent is traded on a level of 113.49$ per barrel, and Light reached 107.63$ per barrel. Gold with delivery in December on COMEX, yesterday fell in the price by 1.22% to the level of 1373.00$ for troy ounce, and this morning is traded on a level of 1371.56$.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
09 SEPTEMBER 2013: DECISION ON SYRIA CAN BRING A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON STOCK MARKETS
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
Last week was full of macroeconomic statistical data, which has been bringing turbulence on the markets and we have witnessed quite different movements in the stock and currency markets of late. Despite the fact that trading session in the American stock market has been rather volatile, indexes finished almost on the levels they began. Dow Jones dropped for 0.10% and reached 14922.50, Nasdaq added 0.03% and closed the session on the level of 3660.01 and S&P500 increased for 0.01% and closed the session on 1655.17.
The American Dollar strengthened last week due to key macroeconomic indicators, which were better than expectations, showing increased chances that FRS will begin the reduction of the program of quantitative easing following the results of the next meeting which will take place on September 17-18. The PMI indexes in the production and services sector were recorded at levels 55.7% and 58.6%, respectively. But, after the publication of the report on the labor market, where data for June and July were revised with a fall in the sum on 79 thousand, the American Dollar was under moderate pressure and started to lose in relation to major currencies.
The European currency has also been under quite strong pressure after the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Dragi, during a press conference, declared that the Management board discussed the possibility of an additional decrease of the interest rate. The month before, the European Central Bank gave reference points on monetary policy in which he noted that rates will remain low in "the foreseeable future". However, against improving macroeconomic statistics, participants of the market began to exclude the possibility of a further decrease, and the Euro became stronger. EUR/USD pair on Friday was traded on the level of 1.3160, losing following the results of a week 0.4%. This morning, we can see EUR/USD traded on the level of 1.3172.
This week there are no expected important macroeconomic statistics capable to have essential impact on the moods of participants of the currency market. As for the near-term outlook, Syria still remains the center of attention. Obama's speech to the nation address is planned for Tuesday. On Wednesday congressmen are returning from vacation, and will, most probably, take a final decision on the Syrian matter.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
10 SEPTEMBER 2013: THE USA IS READY TO POSTPONE MILITARY OPERATIONS AGAINST SYRIA
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
Today the market will be more nervous than it was on Monday - the USA is ready to accept Russia's offer and to postpone military operation against Syria, if Syria will agree to transfer it's chemical weapons over to international control. Based on this news and these discussions, prices of Oil are falling. Brent is traded this morning on 111.47$ per barrel and Light has reached level of 107.46$. Both oil brands are losing around 1% in price. Nevertheless, the latest events are only a temporary break before the situation will continue to develop, according to a new scenario.
Meanwhile, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with a moderate growth of the main indexes, the Dow Jones index recorded the greatest increase from the middle of July, having added 0.94%. Nasdaq and S&P500 added 1.26% and 0.99% accordingly. Mainly all the stock markets were growing on Chinese optimism.
To remind you, the surplus of the chinese trade balance made $28.61 billion in comparison with average market expectations at the level of $20 billion. The improvement is welcomed by investors, and even the possible war in Syria doesnt seem it will effect further investment in markets.
Another interesting development we can see is in the development of the EUR/USD currency pair. USD felt under pressure after the index of business moods of Sentix grew to 6.5, instead of the predicted fall to 4.0, having showed the maximum indicator since May, 2011. The Euro went above the level of 1.32, reaching a 1.3280 high during the American trading session, and closing the day on around 1.3260. This morning, the Dollar is trying to win back lost positions and is strengthening towards the Euro, traded on a level of 1.3246.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
11 September 2013: Berlusconi’s Threats Attract Attention Of Investors
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
Yesterday stock markets of the United States of America finished the trading session on a positive note due to support given by statements of the Prime Minister of Syria, and statistics from China, which appeared to be better than the average expectations of analysts.
The Prime Minister of Syria, Wael al-Halki, declared that his country agreed to the offer from Russia to transfer all Syrian chemical weapons under international control, having officially agreed, thus, on chemical disarmament. The market apprehended this news, taking into consideration the speech of the US Secretary of State, John Kerri, who noted that Assad can avoid military intervention if he transfers all chemical weapons to the international community within the next week.
As for Chinese statistics, according to the presented data, retails increased in August by 13.4%, whilst an increase of only 13.2% had been predicted. Industrial production in August increased by 10.4%, which exceeded forecasts of analysts of 9.9%.
Following the results of yesterday's trading session - the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, got stronger 0.85%, and closed on the level of 15 191,06 points. The index of the wide market S&P 500 increased 0.73% to the level of 1 683.99 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, added 0.62% reaching 3 729.02 points.
As the Syrian question has been put on hold, prices of Oil of brand Light, started to decrease in price, reaching the price of 106.16$ per barrel this morning . Brent adds 0.10% and is traded on a level of 110.13$. Gold is stable on 1367.09$.
While the economic calendar lacks statistical data, attention of investors is now drawn to the subject in relation to Berlusconi and his party. It is an important subject, as Italy is the third largest economy in the 17 member Eurozone, and if a crisis will begin within the country, echoes will be heard throughout the region. Secondly, the threat of the politician to convince the party to stop government support is dangerous, due to the fact that the coalition government of the current Prime Minister won't be able to continue work. If there is a Parliament collapse, the need of carrying out new elections will lead to new expenses, and instability in Italy. Berlusconi didn't voice the decision yet, but can make it at any time, therefore the EUR/USD trades very carefully.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
12 September 2013: Investors Await FRS Meeting Where The Destiny Of The QE3 Program Can Be Decided
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
Leading stock markets of Europe were growing yesterday. The leader became the German DAX, which added 0.6%. The growth is mainly due to an increased interest from investors towards the largest German energy companies - E.ON (+4,8%) and RWE (+6,6%). The value of the stock of the British chip maker ARM Holdings, developing chips for iPhone smartphones, jumped up yesterday by almost 5%. It occurred after Apple announced two latest versions of the smartphones - multipurpose iPhone 5S and its younger brother - the iPhone 5C.
However, shares of Apple after the presentation of the smartphones fell more than 7% in two days . Experts were skeptical in regards to the budgetary IPhone 5C, which obviously didn't reach the target price category. The falling of stock quotes of Apple were negatively reflected yesterday in an index of the technological sector of the USA, which lost 0.1%. In turn, Dow Jones finished the trading day in the green zone, having added 0.7%, thankfully, to growth of stock quotations of IBM corporation. The corporation declared that sales to the Synnex company, the division which is engaged in outsourcing support of clients, grew by $0.5 billion. Shares of Synnex jumped up yesterday over 20%.
Another interesting development yesterday was that on the expectations of good performance results, due to increased demand for mobile advertising, Facebook shares rose in price 3.3% and were closed at 45.04$ per share, having exceeded a level of 45.00$ for the first time since the moment of IPO, which was carried out in May, 2012.
As for the currency market, main currency pairs approached key levels of resistance. As a result, EUR/USD finished the trading day in the level of 1.3310, and GBP/USD – around 1.5740. News that the U.S. President, Barack Obama, asked the Congress to postpone the vote concerning a potential rocket attack across Damascus, reduced interest in the US Dollar, however, the pair faced quite strong resistance on 1.3280 which could go through only during the American session. This morning, EUR/USD is traded on a level of 1.3302, there is possibility that levels of 1.3320/1.3330 will be difficult to overcome and, as a result, it is possible to expect temporary correction back to 1.3260.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
16 September 2013: Further Movement In The Markets Will Depend On The FRS Decision On Wednesday
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
On Friday, September 13, the trading session in the stock markets of the USA was influenced by a number of macroeconomic data which have reflected changes in the consumer spirit of the Americans.
Statistical data was of mixed character. The greatest disappointment was brought by a preliminary index of consumer confidence of Michigan University, which in September fell to the minimum level since April, to 76.8 points from 82.1 points in August. Retails show incensement the 5th month in a row, August increased by 0.2%, having conceded to a more optimistic forecast of analysts of 0.5%.
Contradictory, and generally the adverse macroeconomic statistics were apprehended by investors quite quietly, as unconvincing results of the recovery of the American economy can play a constraining role in the intentions of FRS to reduce scales of financial stimulation at the meeting on monetary policy. It seems that the stock markets reconciled and already, in a certain degree, won back the future gradual turning of the program of "quantitative easing" - QE3. Now the main issue for investors is when the QE3 will actually be closed, and how strongly the program will be cut down. According to a poll of leading economists by Bloomberg news agency, the majority of them consider that the decision on this question will be made during the coming meeting of the FRS and the volume of financial injections will be cut down on 10 billion Dollars.
In the previous week, the American Dollar appeared to be under pressure and finished the trading week around the level of 1.3280. This week EUR/USD pair started trading on the level 1.3353 and now trade on a level of 1.3070. Depending on the news coming from the FRS meeting, the currency pair can try the resistance level on 1.3460. In case of a decrease in quotations - the closest level of support there is a level of 1.31.
As for the commodity market, there are oil loses in price, in connection with the certain weakening of confrontation concerning Syria, and against unfavorable American data on retails and consumer confidence that strengthened concern in relation to the prospects of demand for energy carriers. In comparison with the closing price on Friday, Oil made a loss of 2.1%. This morning, Brent is traded on a price of 110.58$ per barrel and Light is on 106.44$. Gold is 1.26% up at 1325.09$, Silver increasing for 0.76%.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
17 September 2013: Markets Keep Optimistic In Anticipation Of Two-Day Meeting Of FED
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
On Monday, September 16, the American market finished the trading session with an increase. An inflow of optimism was explained, generally, by news that Lawrence Summers, being the obvious favorite of the president, withdrew the candidacy on the post of the head of FED. Summers has been considered as a supporter of the toughening of monetary policy, and therefore this news caused an increase in demand for risk and sag of the Dollar in relation to the main currencies. Now, the chances that Janet Yellen will be chosen as the new chairman, became even higher. An understanding that a less aggressive candidate will be chosen instead of Ben Bernanke, caused a sharp reaction in the market.
Purchases were also supported by the achievement of the agreement between Russia and the USA concerning elimination of Syrian chemical weapons. As a result, the trading session finished with an increase of 0.77% for the Dow Jones, reaching the level of 15494.78, S&P 500 grew up for 0.57% to the level of 1697.60 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, has fallen for 0.12% to a price of 3717.85.
The information that the Syrian question has been solved also had an influence on the commodity market, where Brent decreased to a level of 109.58$ per barrel, and Light reached the price of 105.40$ per barrel.
The majority of the main currency pairs opened the week with gaps, and throughout the day didn't manage to close them. As a result, EUR/USD finished the trading day around 1.3340, and GBP/USD closed the day at 1.5910. This morning, we can see EUR/USD traded on a level of 1.3344. Today, data will be released on ZEW Economic Sentiment in Germany, which once again can confirm the weakness of economic recovery in the region. Indicator growth to 45.3 from 42 the month before, is predicted, however the latest reports are giving grounds to expect lower levels. If this does indeed occur, the pair can try to go through the next support level on 1.3320 and go to the level 1.3280.
This week, the meeting of FED of the USA starting later on today, is a key event. Results will be declared tomorrow. There remains less and less doubt that the volumes of the program of quantitative easing will be reduced. The most probable amount of reduction ranges in the sum of $10-15 billion, as predicted previously. Tomorrow’s decision of the FED will dictate further direction of the markets.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
18 September 2013: FED Meeting Results To Be Announced Today
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
Following the results of yesterday's trading session, the world stock markets showed multidirectional dynamics. The American indexes grew within 0.4% and the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 remained less than in 5 points from the maximum recorded on August 2, closing the trading day at level of 1704.76 points. In turn, the European platforms showed negative dynamics. The London FTSE index declined the most, having decreased by 0.8%.
The statistics presented during the day had positive character overall. Consumer Price Index in Great Britain grew in August for 0.4%, a 0.5% forecast had been predicted. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment increased in September to 49.6 points, from 42 points the month before.The index reached the maximum level for the last 4 years, having been affected by raised levels of optimistic expectations concerning prospects of the European economy. In addition Consumer Price Index in the USA in August grew by 0.1%, analysts expected an increase of the indicator to 0.2%.
As for the commodity market, prices for Oil are continuing to decrease, Brent is traded this morning on a level of 108.03$ per barrel losing 0.14%, Light is on the price of 104.87$ per barrel. Gold dipped below the level of 1300.00 and is traded on the price 1298.11$ per troy ounce, losing 0.86%. Silver is down to 0.95% on the price of 21.57$.
The main event of the day is going to be the announcement of the results of the FED’s meeting, which investors were waiting for, for the last few weeks. Mainly analytics are convinced that the decision on turning off stimulating programs will be the most likely scenario. The American Central Bank will most probably start reducing volumes of the repayment of bonds gradually, no more than $15 billion a month, and will also publish forecasts which will allow the estimation of long-term prospects of the economy of the USA.
As for the other statistics today, it is worth paying attention to data on the housing market in the USA, and on stocks of Oil and Oil products in the USA.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
19 September 2013: FED Surprised Markets, Having Rolled Dollar Down
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
FED’s meeting keeping the intrigue till the last moment, extremely surprised investors and shook the currency market. Unexpected inaction of the regulator helped the European currencies to beat the strongest levels of resistance. As a result, EUR/USD finished trading day at the level of 1,3540, and GBP/USD closed day at 1,6150.
FED declared preservation of the current volumes of stimulation at the level of $85 billion a month and a guarantee of keeping low rates while unemployment remains higher than 6,5% and inflation doesn't exceed 2,5%. Moreover, FRS decreased expectations on gross domestic product growth in the current year from 2,3%-2,6% to 2%-2,3%.
Stock markets reacted to this surprises with a steady growth, the S&P500 index grew by 1,22% having updated a historical maximum, reaching level of 1725,52. Dow Jones reached level of 15676,94 having added 0,94%, Nasdaq increased for 1,01% - reaching 3783,64 points.
The most interest development we could see in the commodity market, where FED decision stops fall of the oil prices. Brent this morning is traded on a level of 110,87$ per barrel and Light ads 0,49% bargaining next to the price of 107,81$ per barrel. Prices of precious metals are moving up, with Gold adding 4,23% in one day and reaching level of 1362,91$. Silver increasing for more than 7,00%, going over the level of 23,00$ per troy ounce.
Today will be presented data on a labor market - level of demands for unemployment benefits can grow again after record-breaking low indicators of last week. EUR/USD currency pair can face problems continuing further increase, due to the political situation in the Eurozone. First, the situation with Berlusconi isn't solved yet, and secondly, fears cause also prospects for elections in Germany which will pass during upcoming weekend. Thus, we don't exclude possibility of correction to the closest level of support which is around level 1,3450. Today from significant events of the European session only the report on retails of Great Britain, where delay of growth rates is expected will be issued.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd