Learn to be a Scalper - page 12

[Monarch]

marduk:
Hi Monarch. Can you guide me thorough your analysis? I see that you base your entries on S&R levels from bigger TFs, but i still don't know how do you get to pull the trigger on those trades on the smaller TF. You apply some PA and indicator analysis as I have seen, but the actual time/price at which you decide to enter is still difficult for me to understand. Is it more discretionary than mechanical? Thanks in advance.

I break down my analysis from the 4hr, then the 1hr, then the 15min, then the 5min, and finally my entry is based on the 1min majority of the time.

I use levels of supp/res from anyone of those time frames, if the 1min or 5min sets up a pattern, but those are for reversal trade setups.

I employ 3 styles of trade setups.

1. Reversal setups

2. Pullback and Continuation setups

3. Pre-Breakout setups

I have yet to complete my pattern setups for breakouts, and that is because I look at every move as a spike/fake out move.

Important to first recognize trading patterns, from there you can pinpoint entries and exits.

The price will normally return to a portion of a move, so I would recommend any time you see 3 or more 15min candles go one way, start looking for price to make stall patterns in it's attempt to retrace into that move, use fibo's on these type of retracements.

I call every Bullish bar/candle a G (green) and every Bearish bar/candle a R bar/candle.

So if you have 3G on 15min, look for a short to come into play, especially at levels of previous sup/res or breakout levels.

Once a pullback goes into those 3G bars/candles, we once again look for a LONG trade into that move that formed a 3G.

I will do my best this week not to give so many live trading calls, but more of the chart analysis I use from those different time frames.

I believe if a trader really work hard in finding consistent patterns in the market, they can trade those setups.

Stick around and we will break it down more.

Cheers

Note:

Here is a 15min chart from Friday New York Session.

The first R MOVE is strong breaking further down then the first spike of NFP news release.

Then price found support showing a rejection candle then a break of those 2 lower candles that were basically saying NO MORE DOWN YET>>>>>

Then price moved back into the R MOVE (retracement) it is here you watch the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% to see the stalls for SHORTS.

It reaches 50% level, 1/2 of the R MOVE, then stayed in that zone for a while giving the impression it may want to go higher then 50%, but eventually price move down to do a SUPP TEST and give another R MOVE, but the 2nd move was smaller candles showing that it may not have the power to break lower, so I anticipate the stall at support and on a 5min or 1min I will take LONGS at the stalls.

[Monarch]

This is a further analysis of the previous posted 15 min chart.

Take a look at the 15 min candles before coming to a decision to take any trade.

If the candle is a R Bar - Do Not LONG.

If the candle is a G Bar - Do Not Short.

If there are consecutive R or G bars, then the possibility of a Stall/Reversal/Retracement setup is coming.

Once the consecutive R or G bar movement produces a Doji or a strong rejection bar/candle, then the status goes from POSSIBLE to PROBABLE.

It is here I will switch to a 5min and 1min normally to find the higher low for LONGS, or the lower high for SHORTS.

Take a look at the attached chart.

There is 4R and on each I put NO LONGS, then a small G Bar appears and that means possible STALL or future SUPPORT is forming.

Remember I am only scalping, so it may be a temporarily move up, but typically enough to clear my profit targets.

You can see on the chart I put a Triangle showing the 3 15min candles that just stopped around 1.4030 (the low of the NFP spike down).

On the break above that rejection bar I put a LONG arrow showing that the longs are coming back into the market, or probably the shorts exiting once again.

There are 2 long setups here, the first break above those 3 stall candles, and then when price spikes up and comes back into that rejection candle another long sets up.

Then right before the close of the market, price shot down once again to the low at the same place, I would be looking for 1 of 2 things, stall and longs, or break and shorts.

[Monarch]

The same move as seen on the 15 min chart.

There are a couple G bars that formed on the move down, but each formed lower highs (LH).

I will wait for the move to expire, or to slow.

When there is a move that is recognized by (one way traffic) you know there is going to come a period a STOP sign, or a YIELD sign will appear.

It is at every G candle on a R MOVE I will watch for the stall pattern or a consolidation move.

Once there is no more SHORT action, then the next stage is retracement move, or a LONG bounce.

There are times price will move and seem to never slow, a Bearish move is going to be greater then a bullish move.

So I become more careful in taking longs then shorts (at all times).

Remember, price moves up or down, if the down stops, and won't go no more, then up will come. Same for moves up, when it cannot go any further, it only has one way to go Down, enough for me to grab PROFITS.

[Monarch]

Here is the line chart for 1 min.

I used a line chart for a few years in my learning process, it is a good way to recognize the current trend changes.

This chart is self explanatory, you just need to follow the PRESSURE of a move, then capitalize when it stops.....

This is the same move as shown in the 15 min and 5 min charts.

See you at Market Open, will be looking for a nice gap possibility.

[Monarch]

Learning to Trade at the pressure points of the market.

Once you recognize that the E/U moves in segments, or waves you can start to capitalize on the breathing and exhaling of the move.

Here are 3 charts to show you the natural cycles of pressure or movement.

1. E/U 5 min chart

2. Heart rate chart

3. Wind pressure chart

We wait for moves to inititate or expire, it will go up, and then it will come down.

There is no such thing as ONE WAY movement.......

I will see you all in a few hours.

Cheers.

[marx85]

Thanks for your explanations.

I'll be sticking around as you said.

Lately I've been following some mechanical strategies, but this kind of discretionary analysis for scalping is what i really need to grow as a trader.

I wish you the best.

[Monarch]

Took my first trade of the week.

I watched price break the 4062 high, then a short was present, I let it go and waited for the drop to test that break out line at 4062.

Here are the 2 1min charts showing entry and exit.

+4 pips with no stress.

Weekly Total:

1 Win 0 Loss

[Monarch]

Watching that last low attempt, it may be coming into a bearish move lower to the GAP FILL.

Update:

I had a 1min short already, was up 4 pips, but held it for now.

I am expecting 10 pips on a short.

Here is the 15min chart showing my expectation.

[Monarch]

Target Reached as per expectation.

+10 pips.

Here are 3 charts (1 min) showing Entry, Waiting, Exit.

Weekly Total:

2 Win 0 Loss

Note:

Price dropped even deeper after my conservative exit.

GAP IS FILLED

Here is the updated 15 min chart as posted above.

[Monarch]

After a nice breakout of the Low from NFP, I took 2 entries long.

+6 pips and +6 pips.