A-B-C-D Trade - page 154
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50% retrace fib = 1.40403 + spread/cushion = 1.40433. + 22 net pips.
Just paused briefly and now testing 50%
61.8% retrace fib = 1.40308 + spread/cushion = 1.40338. + 30 net pips
The longer term chart posted 1st has Mars 180 as support where is just bounced. This is also the 38.2 of wider plot using lowest low of May 23rd.
Split screen with tighter retrace plot on 15-min chart on left. Wider plot on 30-min chart on right side where we can see the Mars 180 and fib cluster that created a bounce.
Approaching European open in half-hour, thus traders looking to square positions, which can create a little whipsaw/volatility.
Greetings Edna
For newer viewers that need site for full economic calendar (GMT times):
Forex @ DailyFX - Economic Calendar | DailyFX Forex Events Calendar
The European session often has data which can affect price direction. If you were not taught this, it could explain why you have been having problems.
This site ranks data by level of impact. Intra-day traders do no usually have enough of a stop-loss to stay in the market during high-impact data reactions, in the event price goes against their position.
Certain medium-impact data also create volatility and whipsaw spiking action.
The Asian session has much less data, but is also more docile in movement.
The first half of the U.S. session overlaps the second half of European.
We posted session times, and indicator Time_Modified2 that colors each session.
You can check open/close times by internet searching key words:
Tokyo stock market - for Asian session
Frankfurt stock market - for European session
New York stock market - for U.S. session
Make sure you also search for daylight savings times for each zone and make appropriate adjustments.
***
Today, we had medium-impact data at 06:30, 08:00, and 08:30 during the European session. Ahead is 14:00 U.S. medium-impact data.
If traders stay in during data (not recommended), they should tighten stop-loss to protect profits or minimize loss. Note that slippage can occur, which drags your stop-loss.
There are traders that specialize in trading the data (also called news trading). They are especially trained to do this.
We have commented often on how to avoid being in the market during these period.
The European session is approaching its close and the half-way period of the U.S. session. Let's review the EUR/USD on the 30-min chart, which utilizes indicator Time_modified2 for session colors.
The ABC swing was a wide plot from last Friday. The pair gapped down upon week's open and like a slingshot, went on to extend to its FE127 on May 23rd 09:00. Tighter extension plots are used in attempt to match up with support levels, to ascertain best exit target(s).
As we had mentioned this bottom is the 720-degree on the #Gann_SQ9 indicator chart.
The pullback of the ABC was not exactly 38.2%. However the candle closed at 38.2. The HAMa also contained the pullback.
If using the regular fib retracement tool for extension, and plotting A-B, the bottom was not a major fib. The fib expansion tool (ABC) is more accurate and used for precision. When a pullback is exactly 38.2% then the 2 tools match up. The 4-hour did show that several candles had bodies at the 161.8 bottom of the A-B plot.
The blue fibs are the retracement fibs from Point A to the bottom. We labeled the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels. The end of last week Friday saw retrace to the 23.6%.
Our BAJA entry technique, which is most often counter-trend, provided 22-30 net pip gain. End of move bounced off the Mars 180-degree. Looking at the 06:00 candle, it closed right at the 23.6 fib. Data came out at 06:30/08:00/08:30.
The pair went on to make the hit at the 38.2 at 09:30, and has not been able to sustain above this level. The red diagonal fib channel also provided resistance on the probing candlewick.
If you are just joining us, the BAJA entry technique is discussed from January to present. The fib extensions have been featured regularly since the beginning. BAJA statistics/spreadsheet log and various calculators posted on goggledocs.
The PSQ9 Mars 180-degree line acted as support on Nov 1st, Dec 31st, Feb 4th, Apr 21st, and as resistance on recent pullback.
Fib plot: High = Apr 6th 85.513 and Low =Apr 18th 82.174.
161.8 = 80.110 Hit May 5th. We can see candle bodies stayed above fib.
Probe below 161.8 (to 79.556) was to Andrew's Pitchfork's middle fork. This plot has no value unless price moves closer to edge of upper or lower fork, and/or beyond. Plot = Dec 15th/Mar 16th/Apr 6th.
However, when we move the lower corner of plot to the low of May 5th (bottom), the middle fork captured and contained the current high.
The recent pullback is 38.2% of top to bottom plot. Probe above to location of Low and APF middle fork.
While the APF move is in hindsight, we have often had examples of moving one leg of a fib plot as price ascends or descends.
Since the PSQ9 lines are plotted into the future, moving the lower corner plot of the APF until it aligned with the other resistance levels allows us to project clusters of S&R. This is the chief lesson with this post.
You are not collecting another system here. You are learning how to trade (within our methodology), ascertain S&R, use certain tools, make adjustments viz-a-viz direction of price activity, money management, and make reasonable conclusions or assessments of probability. We also feature some unusual tools and techniques.
Sometimes our comments/observations are subtle. Stay humble.
The QTA indicator can be found for download in the Pattern Recognition thread, post # 9. Here's the link.
https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/198423
It is a customized indicator modified from the standard one that is named Fib Time Zones found in the MT4 platform. The difference is that is is automated, and we can also see the zig-zag. It also locates itself off-chart, at the bottom.
We mentioned that the Andrew's Pitchfork for the EUR/USD was not an easy plot. The highs were easy, but the bottom had several options. We were happy with our choice and the results of the plot.
We had a chance to revisit this, using a technique we've been experimenting with. It's not rocket science. We've only seen the APF applied left to right. We decided to use it this time with the APF pointing from right to left. Let's call it the "Reverse" Andrew's Pitchfork.
Attached is the 1-hour chart with Reverse APF plot (yellow) and fib channel tool (blue). Remember, we need the APF in order to align the fib channel's 1st to 2nd line to the middle and lower forks.
1) Handle = May 20th 08:00 high 1.43368
2) Upper corner = May 13th 08:00 high 1.43383
3) Lower corner = May 16th 01:00 low 1.40470
The fib channel's 161.8 met the bottom May 23rd 09:00. As mentioned this is also the ABC's FE 127 (not shown), which was illustrated on previous chart.
The clues that should tell us the APF plot is reasonable are:
Support at the middle fork on My 12th.
Resistance at the middle fork leading up the handle.
The 61.8% fib channel extension was not met in good manner (support), but the 100% was.
The horizontal retrace was to the 38.2 per previous post. That area met by fib channel 100%. Compared to our original plot, this is much better. The fact that we used a new application of the APF allows up to repeat this in the future to gain better accuracy with the fib channel tool.
Here's an interesting tool that locks onto our APF and plots more line automatically. Here's basic instructions:
1) Plot an Andrew's Pitchfork onto your chart.
2) Save APF under new name. Default in code is AL1.
Click "Charts"
Select "Objects List"
Click "Edit"
In Name Box, change to AL1
Click "O.K.
3) Load AML_v1 indicator onto chart.
We get interior lines and exterior lines. We can also add "sliding parallel lines. The instructions are in the code.