A-B-C-D Trade - page 115
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Lurking bounce traders at 1.3494/1.3500 area. Caution as had already bounced, reducing probability. If enter must get out pretty quickly.
We see support at the 161.8 fib of 1.3457
Edit: and SQ9 has support at 1.3452
EUR/USD in very strong push downward stalling now at 65, which is 161.8 from plot Asian high/low.
Settled for net 14 pips from 82 to exit fill of 68.
We waited for break of good distance from support of 94 prior to entry.
AUD/USD +30 pips from BAJA signal.
EUR/USD BAJA BUY 2nd dip at 11:30 candle on the 30-min chart.
Draw a horizontal line on that candle, then flip to the 15-min chart. We can see the EFT holding us back until 13:45 for entry, at 1.3443. The pair has just surfaced above its 38.2 retrace level and at 1.3484, for + 41 pips. If targeting the 38.2, R/R projected at the time was about 1.5:1.
As we have seen, the BAJA caught the large move down earlier with a 2nd peak at 05:30 and entry at 08:00 price of 1.3537. A 110-pip gross move to 1.3427.
Let's review in slow motion, what went through our minds during the very active day for EUR/USD.
We had a BAJA BUY position going up during Asian off the 23:30 30-min 2nd dip, with entry at 01:00 at 1.3524. We announced the subsequent ABC swings. We opted to exit when pair had trouble hurdling Point B of 1.3549, citing weakening RSI and cross-pair weakness.
Attached is the 15-min chart. The aforementioned BAJA SELL signal at the end of the 05:30 30-min candle told us to exit long position and had us on alert for a SELL.
We would let the Ehlers Fisher Transform (EFT) do its work to get us in safely. As mentioned, we often give up some more pips on the front in to be cautious. Entry at the open of the 08:00 15-min candle was perfect, as the next candle plummeted and destroyed the Asian Low as if it didn't exist.
We took the conservative exit at ABC's Point A price for +20 net pips.
Since there was no discernible ABC pivot worth plotting that would present a Swing B near the Asian Low, we can plot from Asian High to Asian Low. This produced a 161.8 of 1.3465 (hit 08:45).
The ABC plot going upwards during Asian had an opposite extension level 261.8 of 1.3457 (hit 10:00). The plan included exit prior to 10:00 data to be safe.
Support was at 1.3494, the most recent significant low. That didn't hold up long either. We entered a sell again at 1.3482, when we were convinced it would stay below support. Took profit with fill of 1.3468, for + 14 pips.
After the 10:00 data, a pivot occurred. This small ABC, with a 78.6% pullback, produced the fib that became the bottom, the FE 127 1.3430 (hit 1.3427 during 13:15).
Another BAJA signal appeared (BUY) at the end of the 11:30 30-min candle, which alerted trader to watch the 15-min trigger chart. The EFT held trader out until 13:45 when the histogram bars changed to thin denoting cross-over to BUY.
Entry BUY price at 1.3443 with pivot price 1.3427 as stop-loss, plus cushion. This made it a 20-pip S/L risk. Plotting from Asian High to 1.3427, resulted in fib retrace exit levels. Using the 38.2 of 1.3477, made the projected reward 34 gross pips. Net Reward/Risk ratio was 1.5:1. This was achieved at 14:45.
The rebound up was capped at the Asian Low of 1.3500, which also has psychological round number value for resistance. A tight ABC plot had FE 100 at 1.3495.
Here is the EUR/USD 30-min chart with HAS and Murrey Math Lines (MML).
We can see the 0/8th line at 1.3428, which was accurate. The red 2/8th line was also true as resistance, prior to down move.
The HAS is laid on top of regular candlesticks. Some traders enter and exit based on regular candles protruding through HAS, which acts as support and resistance much like a moving average. Just remember that, like most indicators, it lags. It cost pips at beginning and end, with benefits in between, if used properly.
Notice the EFT, when it was above or below the zero line. It's pretty close to the HAS, and this element acts as a trend indicator. Its duo purpose can keep chart from getting too cluttered with too many indicators.
hi
baja im holding sell in gbp/usd at 1.6018 ur sugesstion ??? thanks in advance baja
We took the day off on 14th for a local celebratory day.
If you had to ask that question, you didn't have a plan and are not ready to trade. This thread is a tutorial thread. Although it may often sound like a chat room type for live trade advice, it is not. We strongly recommend viewers new to forex, to use a demo account.
From your price and the time of your question, it looks like you entered the sell position much earlier, on a day full of economic data. If you have read this thread, we always emphasize the danger of being in the market during higher impact data.
At the pair's peak, you were 50 pips behind. What percentage of your account does that represent?