A-B-C-D Trade - page 27
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Start of week, as we near end of Asian session. Let's just pull an ABC from what we have thus far. It will change as I see a probable pivot coming.
15-Min chart in GMT:
A = 22:15 low 1.2875
B = 02:15 high 1.2943
C = 05:45 low 1.2903
Bounced off FE 61.8 1.2946.
FE 100 = 1.2972
FE 127 = 1.2991
FE 161.8 = 1.3015
We should switch to 5-min and await possible pivot that will form a tighter ABC.
One caution, as can be seen on attached chart, is recent European high from July 23rd of 1.2965 is natural area for bounce.
If we can't take the pain of watching that happen, which of course would be against our position of a BUY, we should either pass on this trade or take profit there.
As the Asian session winding down now,
High = 1.2958
Low = 1.2903
Breakout can go either way, but EUR/USD trend has been up.
Edit: If you kept the 1-hour chart, per last Friday's post, we can see support here due to:
Downward Fibo Fan's 61.8% fib
Retracement fib's 61.8% fib
Here is 1-Hour chart with fibs.
Breakout of Asian Low attempt
A = 06:45 high 1.2958
B = 07:40 low 1.2911
C = 07:40 high 1.2936
Asian Low = 1.2903
FE 100 = 1.2888
FE 127 = 1.2875
FE 161.8 = 1.2859
By the way, try to keep your fibs and demo trades on a separate computer, leaving your trading computer undisturbed.
Pair hitting some support at round number 1.2900, but hurdled it.
Sorry, as must monitor our trade.
Trading to FE 100 not worth it. THis is due to distance between Point B and Asian Low. Our rule of course is to enter after Asian Low broken and confirmed.
Therefore, if we decide not to pass, we must target the FE 127 or the FE 161.8.
Support also at the 1-hour 50% retracement fib of 1.2879.
Extension just bounced off FE 100. If confirms below that, we move our stoop-loss to at least break-even, but preferably just above FE 100. Look for pivot for placement of stop-loss.
Entry open of 08:3 5-min candle at price of 1.2901.
Entry 1.2901
S/L @ 08:05 pivot 1.2931 + spread and cushion = 1.2935
Scale back number of lots traded based on risk of 34 pips (see risk calc posted in previous post).
Thus, we'd have to trade to FE 161.8 to make risk/reward worth while.
FE 161.8 = 1.2859 minus spread and cushion = 1.2863 for reward of 37 pips
From our rule that if distance from A to B is moer than 45 pips, we trade to FE 100.
45 pips or less, we trade to FE 161.8.
This would be a pass since risk/reward not there trading to FE 100. But since we are on live, we'll see this example through.