Forex News (from InstaForex) - page 134
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Several FOMC Policymakers Suggest Interest Rate Hike Needed Soon - Fed Minutes
Federal Reserve officials have kept their choices open during the July policy meeting, as some members expect that an increase in U.S. interest rates is needed again soon. According to the Fed's meeting, the consensus is that further data is needed before making a final decision with some officials expecting that economic conditions would soon justify extracting policy accommodation.
The meeting has shown that officials of the U.S. Central Bank's Federal Open Market Committee were mostly upbeat regarding the U.S. economic outlook as well as the labor market, however several claim that a slowdown in the pace of hiring for the future may argue against a near-term hike. The broader group of policymakers have conveyed their concern regarding low interest rates as it could affect financial stability.
Major U.S. stock averages closed flat, which was slightly higher prior to the Fed minutes' publication while the U.S. dollar reached a session low against the yen at around 100.15 yen. Yields were pushed lower as longer-dated U.S. Treasury prices surged to session highs.
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Fxwirepro: Usd/sgd Exhibits Range Bound Movement, Intraday Bias Remains Neutral
USD/SGD is currently trading around 1.3415 marks.
It made intraday high at 1.3419 and low at 1.3383 levels. Intraday bias remains neutral till the time pair holds key resistance at 1.3475 marks.
A daily close below 1.3391 will drag the parity down towards key supports at 1.3347/1.3313/1.3302/ 1.3271 levels. Alternatively, a sustained close above 1.3475 will test key resistances at 1.3537, 1.3638, 1.3799, 1.3836, 1.3851(March 16, 2016 high), 1.4073 (20D EMA) and 1.4132(20D, 30D and 55D EMA crossover).
Important to note here that in a daily chart, 20D, 30D and 55D EMA heads down and confirms the bearish trend. Current upside movement is short term trend correction only.
Positioning is inconclusive at this point, with prices offering no clear cut signal to initiate a long or short trade. We will continue to remain on sidelines for the time being.
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Gold Ends Four-Day Winning Streak on Fed Official Comment
Gold prices declined, ending its four-day gain streak while the dollar regained its strength as a hawkish stance from San Francisco Fed President John Williams revived expectations of a U.S. central bank rate increase.
Spot gold lost 0.3% and traded at $1, 348,26 while U.S. gold fell by 0.3% at $1,1353.50. Meanwhile, the index of the dollar versus its major peers gained 0.2% at 94. 296.
Williams indicated his support for a rate hike in his comments on Thursday, stating that waiting too long can have dire consequences for the economy.
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Fxwirepro: Usd/krw Hits Fresh 4-Week High at 1,123- Stay Bullish
USD/KRW is currently trading around 1,122 levels.
It made intraday high at 1,124 and low at 1,121 levels. Intraday bias remains bullish till the time pair holds key support at 1,107 levels.
A sustained close below 1,107 will test key supports at 1,092/1,078/1,063/1044 levels respectively.
Alternatively, current up trend will drag the parity higher towards key resistances at 1,124, 1,138, 1,142, 1,152, 1,162, 1,176, 1,182, 1,196, 1,201, 1,209 (20D EMA) and 1,220 (March 03, 2016 high) marks respectively.
In addition, South Korea?s Kospi was trading around 0.48 percent lower at 2,046 points.
South Korea August 1-20 exports -0.3 pct y/y, imports -0.7 pct y/y -customs agency.
We prefer to take long position in USD/KRW around 1,120 with stop loss at 1,092 and target of 1,142/1,152.
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Stanley Fischer Indicates 2016 Rate Increase as U.S. Economy Nears Fed Goal
Stanley Fischer, the Federal Reserve's Vice Chairman has indicated that a 2016 increase in interest rates is under consideration, further stating that the U.S. economy is near in reaching the central bank's goal with further growth. GDP is expected to grow in the upcoming quarters, with investment regaining its momentum and the dollar appreciation predicted to lessen.
Investors are currently looking for indicators from central bankers regarding the time of the potential rate hike amidst stable economic growth, firm job gains and the steady increase in inflation. Fischer claims that the central bank's approved price benchmark, minus energy and food costs is at 1.6 percent, as most Federal Reserve officials predict that inflation would rise to a two percent target rate. During his speech, he noted the slowdown in worker output or productivity and that it had increased to 1.25 percent per year on average from 2006 to 2015 in comparison to 1949 to 2005's 2.5 percent.
Fed officials have increased the benchmark lending rate to in between 0.25 to 0.5 percent by December. As stated in the prices of federal funds futures contracts, investors predict a 50-50 probability of a rate hike by the latter part of the year.
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Fitch: Indonesia's 2016 Car Sales to rise As Outlook Brightens
Fitch Ratings believes Indonesia's car sales will increase between 3% and 5% in 2016, buoyed by new product launches, a more positive macroeconomic environment, increased liquidity and more relaxed financing terms.
Fitch believes the country's domestic car sales will reach about 1.05 million units this year. Car sales in the first seven months of 2016 rose 2% yoy to 594,514 units, according to the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo). PT Toyota Astra Motor (TAM) continues to lead with a 52% market share through leading brands Toyota and Daihatsu; the low-cost-green-car (LCGC) segment is also gaining momentum, and contributed 18% to total car sales in 7M16. Gaikindo forecasts car sales will rise by at least 5% this year.
This year, TAM has introduced the new version of its SUV product - Toyota Fortuner - and launched a new product - Toyota Sienta, which is a seven-seater multi-purpose vehicle (MPV) that will compete with the Honda Freed. Recently, TAM and PT Astra Daihatsu Motor also introduced the Toyota Calya and Daihatsu Sigra, respectively. The Toyota Calya and Daihatsu Sigra are both seven-seater LCGCs that target the low-cost segment; both are in the price range of IDR110m-150m.
Fitch believes Indonesia will maintain GDP growth of 5.1% yoy in 2016, supported by monetary policy easing, government programmes to accelerate infrastructure spending, and a tax amnesty plan. The government expects GDP to grow by 5.3% in 2016, compared with 2015 GDP growth of 4.8%.
The tax amnesty programme should bolster government revenue and allow for increased public capex, in Fitch's view, while the repatriated funds should boost liquidity in Indonesia. Bank Indonesia (BI) has cut its reference rate by a total of 100bp since the end of last year to 6.50% in July 2016 (along with cuts in the reserve requirement ration). BI is also in discussions to further relax the loan-to-value ratios for auto financing. This, along with lower interest rates, would support auto-loans financing; about two-thirds of car purchases in Indonesia are made using car loans.
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Baltic Exchange Board and SGX Agrees on Bid for London Firm
Singapore Exchange and the Baltic Exchange announced on Monday that they have agreed on SGX's bid of 160.41 pounds per share and 19.30 pounds per share as a final dividend, higher than the initial 18.80 pounds per share dividend extended two weeks prior. The deal puts the market value of the London exchange firm at around 87 million pounds.
SGX looks to grow its presence in Europe through its acquisition of the Baltic Exchange. The takeover is part of SGX's ambition to further delve into the market for shipping finance with the Baltic's membership that is dominated by European shipowners.
The deal is seen to be completed by November if a vote of shareholders backs the takeover.
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New Zealand Has NZ$433 Million Trade Deficit In July
New Zealand posted a merchandise trade deficit of NZ$433 million in July, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday - or 11 percent of exports.
The headline figure missed forecasts for a shortfall of NZ$325 million following the downwardly revised surplus of NZ$110 million in June (originally NZ$127 million).
Exports were worth NZ$3.96 billion, shy of expectations for NZ$4.07 billion and down from NZ$4.26 billion in the previous month.
Meat and edible offal led the fall in exports, down NZ$97 million (19 percent).
Milk powder fell NZ$118 million (23 percent) while the quantity rose 0.9 percent.
Fruit fell NZ$17 million (5.7 percent) while the quantity rose 3.9 percent.
Australia was the only top export destination to rise in value, up NZ$37 million.
"The meat export falls this month are partly due to record meat exports this time last year," international statistics senior manager Jason Attewell said. "Meat values in July 2015, off the back of a record high meat season, were 31 percent higher than the average value for the previous five July months."
Imports came in at NZ$4.40 billion versus forecasts for NZ$4.45 billion and up from NZ$4.13 billion a month earlier.
Intermediate goods led the fall in imports, down NZ$296 million (15 percent) due to crude oil.
Consumption goods fell in value for the first time in 23 months, down NZ$114 million (9.6 percent).
The only top import partner to rise in value was the United States, up NZ$83 million.
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Qantas Profit Soars to A$1.53 billion and Pays First Dividend
Qantas Airways Ltd.'s Chief Executive Officer Alan Joyce's turnaround program has produced a record annual profit as the airline has announced its first dividend since 2009 and has given bonuses to its 25,000 employees. According to a Wednesday filing, Australia's flag carrier airline is going to pay a final dividend of seven Australian cents per share and buy back almost A$366 million ($279 million) worth of stocks. During the 12 months that ended on June 30, earnings before tax and one-time items soared by 57 percent into A$1.53 billion.
The A$2 billion transformation program includes thousands of jobs that were cut, aircraft orders that were delayed and unprofitable routes which were pulled out. According to Joyce, the three-year plan is on the track to exceeding the initial target. Qantas has been doing well as shares have increased by 4.1 percent to A$3.54 with the stock nearly tripling ever since Joyce has announced the program. In the past year, Qantas has delivered two one-off capital returns which produces an overall of beyond A$1 billion.
The airline's domestic business underlying operating profit has jumped by 20 percent to A$578 million and has significantly surged by 92 percent with A$512 million on its international unit.
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Japan Producer Prices Jump 0.4% In July
Producer prices in Japan were up 0.4 percent on year in July, the Bank of Japan said on Thursday.
That beat expectations for an increase of 0.1 percent following the 0.2 percent gain in June.
On a monthly basis, process also jumped 0.4 percent following the flat reading in the previous month.
Among the individual components, prices increased for advertising, communications and leasing - while they were down for transportation and postal activities.
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