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European Economics Preview: German Foreign Trade Data Due
Foreign trade figures from Germany and investor sentiment from euro area are due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news. At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is set to publish external trade figures for September. German exports are forecast to rise 2 percent on a monthly basis in September and imports to grow 1 percent. Economists forecast the trade surplus to rise to EUR 21 billion from EUR 15.3 billion in August. At 3.00 am ET, consumer prices and unemployment from the Czech Republic are due. Inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 0.4 percent in October. The jobless rate is forecast to ease marginally to 5.9 percent in October from 6 percent in September. In the meantime, the Turkish Statistical Office is slated to issue industrial production for September. At 4.30 am ET, Eurozone Sentix investor sentiment data is due. The investor confidence index is expected to rise to 12.7 in November from 11.7 in October. At 5.30 am ET, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development is set to publish Economic Outlook. Eurozone finance ministers are set to meet in Brussels today. The Eurogroup will be updated on the state of play regarding the implementation of Greece's economic adjustment programme, including the disbursement of EUR 3 billion.
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South Korea Money Supply Growth Accelerates In September
South Korea's money supply growth accelerated in September after easing marginally in the previous month, figures from the Bank of Korea showed Wednesday. M2, a broad measure of money supply, climbed 9.4 percent year-over-year in September, faster than the 9.2 percent increase in August. On a monthly basis, M2 money supply rose at a slower pace of 0.7 percent in September, following a 0.9 percent spike in the prior month. At the same time, annual growth in liquidity quickened to 9.2 percent in September from 8.9 percent in the preceding month. Similarly, liquidity of financial institutions grew at a slightly faster pace of 10.5 percent yearly in September, after a 10.4 percent hike a month earlier. Month-on-month, liquidity of financial institutions increased at a stable pace of 0.7 percent during September.
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US oil prices struggle to shy away from two-month low
US crude prices on Thursday held close to more than two-month lows following a sharp slump on woes the market will need a longer time to rebalance as supplies exceed demand. Benchmark US crude futures CLc1 settled at $43.15 a barrel, up 22 cents. Prices dropped 3% in the light of high production, higher US stocks, and Asian economic slowdown. Meanwhile, emerging markets worldwide are dealing with an escalating debt mountain which impends growth.
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New Zealand Consumer Confidence At 6-Month High
An index measuring consumer confidence in New Zealand strengthened in November to the highest level in six months, the latest survey released by ANZ Bank and Roy Morgan showed Thursday. The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index climbed notably to 122.7 in November from 114.9 in October. The latest reading was the strongest since May this year, when it marked 123.9. Consumers' expectations about the economy's prospects over the year ahead improved markedly in November, with the corresponding index rising to 15.0 from 2.0 in the previous month. Their own financial expectations over the next twelve months rose to 30.0 from 25.0. The index of current conditions, a concurrent indicator of spending trends, increased to 123.5 in November from 115.4 in the preceding month. Similarly, future conditions index strengthened to 112.2 from 114.6. General inflation expectations climbed to a four-year high in November, with the index rising to 4.1 from 3.3 a month earlier. At the same time, nationwide house price expectations eased to 4.4 from 4.8, which was the lowest reading in this year so far.
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Slumping commodity prices distress global markets
Global equity markets came under pressure as commodity prices slumped, despite continuing concerns about the risks to commodities from lower demand and oversupply. Copper fell to $4,800 tonne in London, its lowest since July 2009, before it slightly recuperated to $4,823. In the United States, the S&P 500 closed at 2,046, up 1.4%, as the energy and basic materials sectors slid 2.3% and 2%, respectively. In Europe, the FTSEurofirst 300 dropped 1.6%, its worst level since late September, as the mining sub-index lost 5.1%. The Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.5%, but was still up around 24% from its August lows. The market has been unsettled by recent figures leading to sluggish industrial growth in China, even as the London Metal Exchange disclosed inventories of copper were escalating.
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Pound Falls Against Majors
The British pound weakened against the other major currencies in the Asian session on Friday. The pound fell to a 2-day low of 186.45 against the yen, from yesterday's closing value of 186.71. Against the U.S. dollar and the Swiss franc, the pound dropped to 1.5208 and 1.5230 from yesterday's closing quotes of 1.5231 and 1.5221, respectively. The pound edged down to 0.7097 against the euro, from an early high of 0.7087. If the pound extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 184.00 against the yen, 1.50 against the greenback, 1.50 against the franc and 0.72 against the euro.
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Eur/usd :watch Out for 1.0800 for Further Bullishness
EUR/USD has made a low of 1.06911 and started to recover from that level. It is currently trading around 1.07915. Short term trend is till weak as long as resistance 1.0800 holds. The pair has been struggling to break above 1.0800 for the past four trading session and break above confirms short term bullishness, a jump till 1.0900/1.1000 cannot be ruled out . On the downside major support is around 1.0660 and break below targets 1.0600. The pair's minor support is around 1.0750 and below that level decline till 1.0700/1.0680 is possible. It is good to buy only above 1.0800 with SL around 1.0748 for the TP of 1.0900/1.1000.
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Japan Economy Contracts More Than Expected In Q3
Japanese economy entered in to recession in the three months ended September, as the GDP contracted for the second straight quarter, preliminary figures from the Cabinet Office showed Monday. Gross domestic product fell an annualized 0.8 percent in the third quarter, following a revised 0.7 percent decrease in the previous three months. Economists had forecast a 0.2 percent drop for the September quarter. On a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP slid 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three-month period to September, the same rate of contraction as in the preceding quarter. The figure was also matched with consensus estimate. In the first quarter of this year, the economy expanded 1.1 percent. Nominal GDP remained flat in the third quarter, defying economists' expectations for 0.2 percent decline. In the second quarter, the economy grew 0.2 percent.
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US Treasury urges Japan to bolster economy
US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has pressed Japan to proffer fiscal support to its economy to reignite growth in the country. Lew, in a statement, made the remarks during a bilateral meeting with Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso on the sidelines of a G20 summit in Antalya, Turkey. He urged the country to fine-tune their fiscal policy to avert sluggish growth in the near future and ensure the return to domestic demand-driven growth can uphold consolidation efforts over the medium term. The Japanese economy slid 0.2% in the third quarter. The nation has faced recession four time since the global financial crisis.
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Greece seals bailout deal with lenders - Finance Minister
Greece reached a deal with its international lenders on financial reforms, removing a hurdle holding up new bailout loans for the country. Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos said there was an agreement on all the milestones, whatever was needed to deliver, meaning the parliament could now uphold the set of reforms to law. The country signed up to a new aid program totalling up to €86 billion this year, but payment of a portion of an initial tranche had been withheld over dispute on regulations on home foreclosures and managing tax arrears to the state. Greece has been keen on finishing its first assessment under the fresh bailout package to initiate discussions with creditors on debt relief.
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