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Fitch: China's Slowdown As Expected, But Downside Risks Mount
Fitch Ratings says China's slower economic growth in 1Q15 is broadly as expected given efforts to rein in credit growth since mid-2014. However, downside risks from the ongoing real-estate correction and from weaker corporate hiring intentions will likely lead to further policy easing later in 2015. "China Macro Update - May 2015" is available at www.fitchratings.com
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New Zealand Overall Credit Card Spending Declines 1.1% In April
Overall credit card spending in New Zealand slipped a seasonally adjusted 1.1 percent on month in April, Statistics New Zealand said on Monday - following the downwardly revised 1.2 percent increase in March (originally 1.3 percent). Retail credit card spending dipped 0.7 percent on month in April to NZ$4.5 billion, unchanged from the previous month after it was revised up from -0.8 percent). Retail card spending also was up NZ$167 million or 3.9 percent on year. "After removing seasonal effects, spending fell in four of the six retail industries," business indicators manager Neil Kelly said. "The largest fall came from the durables industry." Transactions in the core retail industries were down 0.8 percent on month after gaining 0.6 percent a month earlier. The total value of electronic card spending - including the two non-retail industries (services and other non-retail) - was down 1.1 percent. This fall follows a 1.2 percent rise in March.
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Moody's: Currency Shifts to Widen Gap Between Global Economies in 2015-16
Robust US growth and stabilising financing conditions will help the global economy to grow more strongly next year after muted growth in 2015, with divergence between the major economies likely to widen, says Moody's Investors Service in its quarterly Global Macro Outlook report. Divergence between the major economies is likely to widen. The report "Global Macro Outlook: 2015-16. Stronger US Dollar and Shifts in Capital Flows Stoke Divisions in Global Growth", is now available on www.moodys.com. Moody's subscribers can access this report via the link at the end of this press release. Moody's expects G20 GDP growth of 2.8% in 2015, broadly unchanged from last year, before rising to around 3% in 2016. "While prospects of robust growth point to a gradual tightening of monetary policy and higher yields in the US, economic prospects are subdued in many other regions," says Marie Diron, a Moody's Senior Vice President and author of the report. "The outcome is likely to be increased divergence between those economies that have built up resilience, like the US and India, and those that are vulnerable to negative shocks, like Brazil, South Africa and Turkey." The anticipated tightening of US monetary policy comes at a time when most other central banks are easing policy or maintaining their loose stance. This unusual divergence reflects different prospects for growth and inflation around the world. This gap will fuel shifts in capital flows and currency values and affect the global economic outlook. Countries such as Turkey and South Africa are more vulnerable to the strong US dollar and the changes in capital flows that it reflects. The weaker euro and lower oil prices is forecast to give a boost to the euro area economy, with GDP growth of 1.5% in both 2015 and 2016, up from Moody's previous estimate in the last outlook. Lower oil prices and the weaker euro will boost growth in the short term. However, there is uncertainty over Greece's negotiations with its international creditors and its future membership of the euro area. A Greek exit, which is not Moody's baseline scenario, would be very negative for the Greek economy. Since the debt crisis of 2012, the European Central Bank has strengthened its ability to respond to a financial shock, while euro area countries have reduced their trade and financial links with Greece, reducing the potential impact of a Greek exit on other euro member states. In the United States, the stronger US dollar will dent growth. However, high starting levels of price competiveness, strong corporate profits and rising real incomes all still point to robust US economy activity. Moody's forecasts US GDP growth of 2.8% in both 2015 and 2016. In China, domestic factors will mainly account for economic developments. Moody's maintains its forecast that GDP growth will slow to 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016, from 7.4% last year. Moody's sees several risks that could lead to lower growth in certain individual countries. The risks include a Greek exit from the euro area, a disorderly reaction to tighter US monetary policy and the impact of any future correction of Chinese equity or property prices. However, on their own, these would have only a limited impact on the global economy. One source of medium-term risk with potential implications for the global economy is a possible disorderly liberalisation of China's capital account. Moody's Global Macro Outlook underpins the credit rating agency's range of ratings, providing a consistent benchmark for analysts and investors.
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New Zealand Food Prices Slip 0.3% In April
Food prices in New Zealand were down 0.3 percent on month in April, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday. That follows the 0.1 percent increase in March and the 0.7 percent fall in February. "More discounting on items such as biscuits, snack foods, and sauces contributed to lower grocery prices. This was countered by higher prices for tomatoes, beef, and chicken," prices manager Chris Pike said. Grocery food prices fell 0.9 percent, influenced by lower prices for cakes and biscuits, snack foods, and sauces, the bureau said. The price of cakes and biscuits was influenced by more discounting on biscuits. In April, fruit and vegetable prices fell 1.2 percent. Fruit prices (down 2.9 percent) were influenced by seasonally lower prices for kiwifruit. Prices for apples also fell, with a continued supply of new season varieties. These price falls were partly offset by seasonally higher prices for mandarins. Vegetable prices (up 0.1 percent) were influenced by seasonally higher prices for tomatoes, partly offset by lower prices for carrots and cabbage. The average price of tomatoes in April 2015 was $4.81 per kilo, up from $3.49 per kilo in March 2015. This compares with an average price of $3.98 in April 2014. In April, a 0.4 percent rise in meat, poultry, and fish prices was influenced by higher prices for beef (up 4.5 percent), which are now at their highest level. Prices for chicken (up 1.8 percent) also rose. These price rises were partly offset by lower prices for processed meat (down 2.1 percent). Higher prices were also recorded for restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food (up 0.2 percent) and non-alcoholic beverages (up 0.3 percent), influenced by less discounting of packaged coffee. On a yearly basis, food prices climbed 1.0 percent, slowing from the 1.9 percent gain in the previous month. Fruit and vegetable prices increased 5.3 percent, reflecting higher prices for lettuce, potatoes, bananas, strawberries, and tomatoes. Prices for avocados, cucumber, and mushrooms decreased in the year. Restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices increased 1.6 percent. Meat, poultry, and fish prices increased 2.0 percent, reflecting higher prices for beef (up 9.4 percent) and chicken (up 2.3 percent). Grocery food prices decreased 1.5 percent in the year to April, influenced by lower prices for bread, cheese, snack foods, and butter. These price decreases were partly offset by higher prices for chocolate and fresh milk.
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Latam - Bcch and Bcrp Likely to Keep Rates Unchanged
The Banco Central de Chile (BCCh) is expected to keep rates at 3.0% on 14 May. The April minutes show that the only policy option discussed was keeping rates on hold, which suggests a united board with a neutral bias. Activity has been weak but sentiment began to improve in April. President Bachelet's cabinet reshuffle could boost business confidence, allowing stronger growth in H2-2015. Banco de la Reserva de Perú (BCRP) will also decide rates on 14 May. No changes is expected, but a continued easing bias. The weaker Peruvian nuevo sol (PEN) has pressured inflation, which is near the top of the target range. Peru's April 2016 presidential elections could begin to have a negative impact on business confidence in H2-2015. BCRP may be saving its bullets for cuts later this year or early next year.
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Japan Domestic Corporate Goods Prices Add 0.1%
An index measuring domestic corporate goods prices in Japan was up 0.1 percent on month in April, the Bank of Japan said on Friday, standing at 103.6. That was in line with expectations and down from 0.3 percent in March. On a yearly basis, prices dropped 2.1 percent - also matching forecasts following the 0.7 percent gain in the previous month. Export prices were up 0.1 percent on month and down 4.5 percent on year, the data showed, while import prices lost 1.3 percent on month and 17.8 percent on year.
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Americas Roundup: - Second Weekly Gain for the Pound, up Almost 4% boosted by Uk Election Results and a Weak Greenback - 18 May, 2015
EUR/USD: The European currency has clinched its fifth consecutive week with gains vs. the US dollar, its main source of upside being the beleaguered dollar. Today's miserable results from Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and the Reuters/Michigan index (in 7-month lows) added to the set of data disappointments. EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1452, a step closer to 1.15. Resistances are located at 1.1479, 1.1508 and 1.1536, while supports are seen at 1.1375, 1.1347 and then 1.1318. Option expiries for Monday 18th May: 1.1300 (469M), 1.1450 (531M) GBP/USD reached levels on top of 1.5800 but failed to hold on to gains. The pair retreated from the highs and found support at 1.5735. GBP/USD is hovering around 1.5735, around 300 pips above the level it closed last Friday. It is the second weekly gain in a row for the pound versus the US dollar, in which it has risen almost 4% boosted by the UK election results and a weak greenback. UK inflation data (Tue), BoE's minutes (Wed), retail sales report (Thurs) and FOMC minutes (Wed) in focus next week. NZD/USD: kiwi up against the US dollar during the American session but unable to climb back above 0.7500. The pair dropped during the Asian session and bottomed on European hours at 0.7428, but rebounded after the release of weak economic data from the US. During the NY session the pair peaked at 0.7494 and was trading at 0.7485/90, unchanged for the day and also for the week. Option expiries for Monday 18th May: 0.7580-85 (400M) USD/JPY faded below the 120 handle again. Rally was short lived where supply met in the 119.90's. The pair is currently trading at 119.31 with a high of 119.93 and a low of 119.15. Next hurdle is located in 120.82/84 area. Through 119.15, to the downside, 118.80 and 118.40 come in as next key supports. On the calendar next week, we have the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday 20th May. Option expiries for Monday 18th May: 119.00 (500M), 120.00 (793M), 121.00 (1.2BLN) USD/MXN is falling on Friday for the fourth day in a row and is consolidating below an important short term support level located around 15.10. USD/MXN reached levels under 15.00 for the first time in a month. The peso gained momentum and pushed USD/MXN to 14.97, the lowest level since April 9. From there the pair rebounded and rose back above 15.00. Currently is trading at 15.01, down 0.53% for the week and 2.50% below the level it reached on Monday, when it peaked at 15.42.
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Singapore NODX Advances 2.2% In April
Non-oil domestic exports in Singapore added 2.2 percent on year in April, International Enterprise Singapore said on Monday. That follows the 18.5 percent surge in March as an expansion in non-electronic NODX outweighed the decline in electronic NODX. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, NODX tumbled 8.7 percent in April following the upwardly revised 23.1 percent spike in March (originally 23.0 percent). NODX came in at a seasonally adjusted S$14.5 billion in April, down from S$15.8 billion in the previous month.
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Australia Leading Index Slips In March - Conference Board
A leading economic index for Australia was down 0.1 percent in March, the latest survey from the Conference Board showed on Tuesday - following the 0.5 percent increase in February. The leading index slid for the first time after three straight months of gain. Through the last six months, the index added 1.1 percent (about a 2.1 percent annual rate), a reversal its contraction of 1.3 percent (about a -2.7 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. The coincident index added 0.5 percent after rising 0.4 percent in the previous month.
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Euro-Area Economy Is Strong, But Some Headwinds are Returning
Euro-area GDP growth in Q1-2015 outpaced the US and the UK: the picture is emerging of a domestic-demand-driven recovery, supported by structural changes (banks have cleaned up their balance sheets, governments have cut fiscal deficits and - in some countries - have reformed labour and product markets), external stimulus (lower oil prices, a more competitive euro - EUR) and a cyclical upswing. Standard Chartered says they remain positive on the outlook, but anticipate that some headwinds will offset the stimulus from European Central Bank (ECB) quantitative easing (QE). Oil prices are rising and will likely start to take headline inflation back towards target later in H2, muting consumer spending. "Some ECB Governing Council members may argue for QE to be cut short, but we expect bond-buying to continue at least until September 2016 and probably beyond: core inflation is likely to remain low, given the output gap", added Standard Chartered.
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