The London Open - page 177
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Good afternoon
I hope you are all well... Its good to be back.
We had a great trade in CABLE this morning with strong USD in the first hour and weak GBP across the board. USDCHF looked set to rise but slowly the sellers came in and we lost 19 pips on this as it broke the 60min 20ma. We pre empted the USD strength and lost a few pips on EURUSD as well... So with 1 big winner in CABLE it was soon to be wiped out by the 2 losers in EURUSD & USDCHF and therefore flat for the morning session
Hope you are all having a good afternoon.
Zak will be running the live room tomorrow, with James on Thursday and me back on Friday.
See u then.
D
I am really surprised I am not on holiday as the market is starting toboot off. Corporates continue to widen out and in a market where itsvery difficult to borrow bonds, shorts in corporates are rarer thanrocking horse poop and the so called buyers on dips have so far notmaterialised. With this technical picture in mind the short termoutlook for corps doesn't look pretty at the moment (spreads 20-50 wideronce again). As always traders have to have a hedge on and that is viathe CDS market most probably in Turkey that continues to outperform therest of the region. The charts look awful, govys trade well despiterecord issuance and the immediate signs do not look good. Most socalled experts are calling this a little profit taking related dip andnothing more sinister than that. I am not so sure and as an eternalbear my concern is that the authorities have played all their jokers.If the market does start to break down, what have they got left in theirarmoury to prevent another sh*teshow? I still think we are in a datadependent environment where better than expected data is crucial to givecredence to the green shooters. Aside from that get yourself a glass ofPimms put some sunnies on and enjoy Wimbledon.
Mr P.......
Good morning all.
With USDX falling through the base of the daily ascending triangle yesterday there looks to be some rocky roads ahead for the US$.
It has fallen a long way from the averages on the 60m chart and the 4hr CCI tells us it’s way oversold in the immediate term.
Longer term anti-dollar trades can be held but short term should be closed or part closed with profit.
I am on the Dollar fence this morning as and pullback could result in falling EURUSD & GBPUSD. Do we really want to be looking for short plays on these two?
Absolutely not.
However, I do feel that with the big run EURUSD had over Cable it would be fair to say that perhaps the former has further to pullback than the latter. In this case we could see a stronger pound than euro and my money will be on EURGBP short through the daily pivot.
I will look for an entry arounf 08545 and will target the 4hr 20ema and 60m 50sma around the 08500 levels with a stop at .70.
Naturally I’d be looking to get on the back of the Dollar weakness later after some consolidation on the index. My main suspect here would be a 120 pip play on USDCAD short through the 4hr 20 targeting the weekly pivot witha 50 pip stop above the pivot.
Have a good morning.
Z
Afternoon all
A very good morning with some solid pips made in EURGBP.
The guys in the school would have received your video alert this am to buy EURUSD just above the 1.4000 level. We have banked 50% at 1.4055 and holding balance with stop below the DP. A great trade and lets see if it can double bottom (off the DP) for a move higher. Its a free trade now with 50pips in the bank.
I know quite a few who took it (by email) so well done..
See u tom.
D
Hi
Have lowered stop below 1.3950.
As mentioned i have locked in pips already so even if i lose on the balance its still a free trade.
See u tom.
D
Hi Have lowered stop below 1.3950. As mentioned i have locked in pips already so even if i lose on the balance its still a free trade. See u tom. D
Hi Dan,
I'd like to join the live trading room and learn a few things from you guys. Is that possible?
Cheers,
C
Pice action too weak..
Closed position at 97 in EURUSD.
Will see what happens later on.
D
Not a great deal to report today, quiet session until Durable goods didits usual and came out no where near economist's forecasts. Market gota little excited and in small pockets I saw some corporate buying forthe first time this week. That said I continue to see real moneylightening up in quasi names in decent sizes. I am hearing that thisis not necessarily outflows but it is Spring inflow money taking profit,what that means going forward I am not sure. The big wide world reallyis a mixed bag, as I am writing the Dow looks like it has snapped out ofits losing streak (was down 5 of the last 6 sessions before today) andopinion is very divided between the green shooters and the eternalbears. All eyes on the Fed tonight, it's a difficult one for them asthey need to try talk up the bond market and the stock market and thatis not an easy one to sell. I boringly predictably fail to get excitedabout current spread levels and will continue to reside in my dark cave.
Mr P.......
Good morning all,
A quiet morning in terms of news we have Industrial New Orders M/M from the EUR Zone out at 10 am, I would expect this to be out worse than expected in the region of -0.4% / -0.8%.
Everything has retraced into the averages over night and we are currently boxed on our two major pairs Fibre and Cable.
GBPUSD:
Boxed between the Daily and the Weekly Pivot.
Averages are supporting a move higher with a break of 1.6480 confirming the move higher.
If we do see selling coming into the market I would be looking for a clear break of the weekly pivot and a 123 back into it.
EURUSD:
Has retraced to the break out resistance from Tuesday. Now looking to find some support off this level.
My Major concern is the resistance we have above us in the form of the 4 hourly 20 MA and the Daily pivot. We would require a clean break of the daily pivot with a 123 to enter EURUSD
A break to the south would be triggered if the price fell through overnight support at 1.3945 and could move as low as the Weekly Pivot at 1.3900
EURGBP
Over night range between 0.8475 and 0.8495.
A lot of resistance above would suggest a move lower breaking through the lows at 0.8475
A break higher at this stage would be difficult to trade but we will remain aware that this could happen.
USDCHF
WOW what a move after BIS stepped in.
Must retrace after a move like that. A bank may be able to buy up as many options as it likes but the market will realize that this is still a weak currency.
Will be difficult to trade so is not on my book.
Happy Pipping.
James
Back in the office tom...
I will be doing the live room on friday from 6.30am.
See u then.
D
PS Not sure how many pips were made today but i saw a great trade in EURGBP taken by James. I went for CABLE with Scott and ended up to be quite good as well. See u tom.