The London Open - page 173
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Sorry, Dan. I should have clarified. Cable was just one example of against the trend trading. Like Anders in the live room right now calling eur/usd short at 1.4020 when the trend is up. He has just been stopped out.
Instead of trying to call pullbacks/tops, I just think it is better to trade with the trend and not to worry about the pullbacks/tops, even if they do happen today.
If it helps, I am waiting for eur/usd and cable to pull back to the 1hr20ma or maybe the daily pivot and then look for a long, but only if the set up is right. Might not happen today, but better than being negative pips.
Anyway, we are all still learning. Just my thoughts.
Have a great weekend too.
Honest Bill.
Hi all
Ok i am honest enough to admit when i am wrong and i have traded CABLE like a donkey. Yes call me what u want and i admit i was wrong. I am not going to reflect on CABLE as i made well on UJ this month and one good trade on EURGBP so all in all i am up but no where near what i should have been. I always look forward and after a couple of weeks of poor (GBP) judgement i wont let it affect my trading. I can do so much better and will do in June...Infact i am going to nail June in a big way...
As explained in the room, its a fresh start and a fresh approach..We r putting all intelligent views on the back bench, putting those economic degrees in the bin and just going to trade what we see.
If that means buying CABLE at 1.9500 on monday then so be it i will buy it... You all know the plan for setups on monday with the moving averges and what we are looking for eg the silver crosses as explained.
As long as we are all happy, we will then trade them with the trend. If we fancy something against the trend then we will state vvv clearly this should be a low risk trade. You obviously do not need to take it as they are just ideas.
Remember (as Julie says) its not hard to get a couple of swing trades right and then you are back in the game. You could even take 1 a week and do vv well, like UJ earlier this month.
The email alerts will be coming your way from monday so hold onto you seats... I feel confident as ever and wont let my BEAR come out again. I will trade what i see and that is it...
Well done and see u on monday
D
Well good to see Zia & Darryl are on CABLE short...
We admit we r a little crazy but we made good pips from it.
Still short on balance.
D
Have a great weekend...
Enjoy.
D
As CNBC has been banging on about all day, selling in May and going away didn't work in 2009. 3 consecutive months of positive stock market returns, Baltic dry index rallying, commodities rallying, dollar selling off, its like déjà vu all over again! The question is what is driving these moves? Are we pricing in a V shaped recovery ie effectively the reflation trade or are all these dollars the Fed keeps printing ( via QE) being recycled back into the market creating another bubble that will inevitably burst at some point. With what is going on out there much like 2008 I am sure it wont be long before people start talking about stagflation once again. We are already noticing it at the petrol pump as Unleaded is once again above £1 per litre and your Chelsea tractor will cost you nearly 100 pounds to refill again. Of course if inflation/stagflation concerns kick in again, what does that do to treasury yields and interest rate expectations? If you believe in the reflation trade then of course this is great news for EM investors and could mean spreads tighten in further still. As always I don't buy it and my reasoning is very simple the only thing I see in the real world going up in price are commodities ie petrol and food. Is this surge in the oil price based on real demand for oil or too many speculative dollars chasing hard assets? In the real world I am seeing prices coming off. It doesn't matter if it's a newspaper (the Sun is 20p), a local golf club (one local club slashing its fees to try and increase cash flow) or a hotel room in Dubai, many business's are cutting prices to undercut their rivals and stay afloat as we are no where near full capacity in any economy around the globe. What is worrying is that the essential things we need to survive ie food, gas and electricity are on its way back up in price and the luxury goods we can do without are coming off in my view not a pretty picture for the future. In the meantime we head into June with this madness set to continue although Geithner's trip to China this weekend could be interesting reading. Although I fear the further we rally the further we fall the good news is that another 100bp or so of tightening and the syndicate desks can get ready for the floodgates to reopen as I feel we are very close to seeing some new issuance in decent Russian names very soon. Amazingly on Monday we enter the month June (time flies when the market rallies!), the safe bet at the moment is that there is no sign of a blow up anytime soon. A word of warning however as I am heading to sunny SC for a few weeks in June and that usually spells extreme volatility. Enjoy the sunny weekend!
Mr P......
Sorry, Dan. I should have clarified. Cable was just one example of against the trend trading. Like Anders in the live room right now calling eur/usd short at 1.4020 when the trend is up. He has just been stopped out. Instead of trying to call pullbacks/tops, I just think it is better to trade with the trend and not to worry about the pullbacks/tops, even if they do happen today. If it helps, I am waiting for eur/usd and cable to pull back to the 1hr20ma or maybe the daily pivot and then look for a long, but only if the set up is right. Might not happen today, but better than being negative pips. Anyway, we are all still learning. Just my thoughts. Have a great weekend too. Honest Bill.
Hi HB,
Good post - Nice clear and concise observation. Thank you for sharing. Oh, and a small by the way, I have been doing a small small amount of trading on Crude WTI, and had a position on Tuesday which I closed out for 366 pips. Will post the chart as a reference, but WTI looking very good in terms of trend and MA's. I am now off to the garden to enjoy some rays...
All the best,
Lotion Rockie
Hi all As explained in the room, its a fresh start and a fresh approach..We r putting all intelligent views on the back bench, putting those economic degrees in the bin and just going to trade what we see. If that means buying CABLE at 1.9500 on monday then so be it i will buy it... You all know the plan for setups on monday with the moving averges and what we are looking for eg the silver crosses as explained. As long as we are all happy, we will then trade them with the trend. If we fancy something against the trend then we will state vvv clearly this should be a low risk trade. You obviously do not need to take it as they are just ideas. I feel confident as ever and wont let my BEAR come out again. I will trade what i see and that is it... Well done and see u on mondayD
Hi Dan, hi Rock, hi HB
I just love trading with the trend and can't wait to get back in the room again with all the other trendy dudes.
Just one more week at work full-time then, like Arnie, I'll be back.
See you then.
Have a good weekend y'all.
Little ray of sunshine RS
Salad wasn't Dan's favourite meal... and he made sure everybody knew it.
Hi HB, Good post - Nice clear and concise observation. Thank you for sharing. Oh, and a small by the way, I have been doing a small small amount of trading on Crude WTI, and had a position on Tuesday which I closed out for 366 pips. Will post the chart as a reference, but WTI looking very good in terms of trend and MA's. I am now off to the garden to enjoy some rays... All the best, Lotion Rockie
Ah, Rockie,
Good to hear from you. I did manage to get a few pips from cable later on. I mentioned waiting for a pullback to the 1hr20 or DP. I was targetting the highs, but being Friday afternoon I didn't want to be greedy and closed for +50. Wish I'd left some on with the trend. Now some 270 pips higher as I type. It found support right off the weekly 50 this morning and motored up. Unfortunately, being a Bank Holiday here, I was in bed
Here's the chart. It's still Dan/Pimp strategy but using the stochastic that Westy had introduced. (it says "the squeeze" on the chart, but is actually the stochastic)
That red stepped line is the 1hr20ma.
Hey Bill,
I had a day off today. So it was a chance to have a play. As I mentioned last week I had a nice run with WTI. Today I focused only on CABLE. I have attached my trade for reference, and annotated my chart. Hope this is viewable to you. Keep it real and lets make sure we only trade our precious accounts with the trend. Two trades 5 days - 366 for WTI and 169 for CABLE. I confess though that both trades were at a very low stake. Seems to reduce my anxiety!
Enjoy the weather and the long weekend.
All the best,
Part Timer Rockie