The London Open - page 171
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Remember trading is a long term game...You get good weeks and bad weeks and if that means not trading for the rest of the week then thats how it is.
I will only trade at the levels i am happy with.
D
Hi
Well the USD is in big trouble...
Re our USDJPY email alert that was sent to you all last night. We are sending you another one now suggesting that you bank part at 95.00 and will hold the balance for now.
Yes i backed away from CABLE but the lowest risk trade out there was USDJPY. At least that has made us a solid 100 pips in 24 hours.
See u tom and more email alerts to come.
D
Good evening
Am i surprised with the weak USD? Am i surprised with the rally with EUR and GBP? The answer is no...
I remember being a bull all the way from 1.4000 up to 1.5000 and a strong one at that in CABLE. I have done the classic over the last 3 weeks by listening to so many people telling me this stock market is going to crash that i have actually taken my eyes off what is really happening.
The easy thing to do is listen to the bear traders and listen to them saying the world is over and that Indices will fall another 2000+ points. Well yes it might do but the fact is the trend is up for now and i took my eye off it. I turned into a bear which i promised myself i wouldn't. If i stay neutral as a trader i make good decisions however if i come in everyday thinking this must happen it affects my judgement. There is no point prempting this maket. Its less thought and more action with the trend that is important...
I know i am not the only one..I know some traders who have lost a mere fortune by selling without stops on cable and eur..A bad bad mistake!!!
With this USDJPY trade i am 50% there on making my budget for the week but i am still annoyed with myself how i became a bear overnight!!! I will make budget this week but it should have been so much more. Only 3 trades this week and 2 more days to make target..
Ok see u tom.
D
Indices tanking...
Sorry been very busy today but good to see Zak and James keeping you vvv vusy in the room with shorts in USDJPY, AUDJPY & DAX.
I am short on all 3 stil and AUDUSD. Can´t lose on these trades now...
Cheers
D
Well my tight stops got hit on those shorts from earlier this am in DAX and AUDJPY. 2 very nice trades...
Still got AUDUSD amd USDJPY.
D
Being a Friday before a bank holiday I wasn't going to bother writing acommentary however despite the lack of activity in the street todaythere is a worrying theme developing in the market right now. Concernswere raised and triggered by the S&P move on the UK's ANA outlookyesterday citing their increasing debt to GDP. The market is now askingthe question who next and that has led us to our friends across thepond. US 10 year treasury yields have shot up almost 30bp in the last24 hours. Effectively what we have seen these past 18 months is anindebted private sector (specifically the financials) being passed ontothe government sector. This was never a problem so long as thegovernments kept their AAA rating and could continue to borrow money viathe bond markets. The outlook change has now thrown a major spanner inthe works hence the govy moves of the past 24 hours. For those thatthing a treasury sell off is a good thing for EM I would suggest theylook at charts of June of 2003, May 2004 and June 2006 to remindourselves that these moves were not good for credit even if you were100% hedged with govys. Personally I don't see this being a problem inthe long run as its in China's interest that the dollar and the treasurymarket doesn't blow up as they are already long a decent chunk. Anotherreason why this move is dangerous is that the hike in long end yieldscould de-rail the so called housing recovery that is underway in the USas mortgage rates creep back up again thus running over the alledgedgreen shoots! This may of course just be a blip with moves beingexaggerated because of holidays however if these moves continue it couldtest the resolve of the markets and this so called recovery. If I amwrong and the US and the Uk government do have major problemsrefinancing then I fear we have found a trigger for the next blow up.On that happy note, enjoy your long weekend!
Mr P.....
Evening all
Been quiet this week...CABLE at levels that i am uncomfortable to trade at, Indices that are expected to tumble and above all a baby about to pop...
I don't mind having quiet weeks to be honest... USDJPY was the big winner and manged to hit my weekly target of 250 pips so happy overall.
Sister in town so off to take her for a fine glass of red.
Remember to take week by week.
250 pips is the target again.
D
Afternoon team
Sorry been a busy boy again today...
Some took CABLE short earlier this am which was great to see..I mentioned a 70 bid as only wanted a 50 pip risk for newbies but didnt quite reach it. Shame as was a great play...
Managed to get a few short b4 figures out at 3pm from 1.5865, 70 & 75 with stop at 85 above resistance. Banked on way down to the 4hr 20ma at 1.5825 and then got stopped on balance at 85 with DOW rallying giving us weak USD across the market.
Wont long it up here ahead of the 1.5946 resistance and 1.6000 level.
Cheers
D
The market obviously had an enjoyable, eventful and tiring weekend muchlike myself. As a result we both had a pretty sluggish weak start andthen buoyed by a stronger than expected consumer confidence number wesprung back into life. Spread still ended up wider on the day in CDSland but well off the wides. Cash was mixed but for choice tighter onaverage as the -ve basis continues to contract to more sensible levels. My thoughts on the world haven't really changed. I think a large partof last years huge drop in capacity, growth, consumer spending etc waspsychological after Lehman's collapsed. I mean it was common placeamongst city ladies/gents that they were not going to go on a niceholiday, or by that dream car or by that new Titleist driver. This wasof course down to people's expectation of the future despite the presentbeing ok. We are currently in a phase that is completely the oppositeto where we were 6-8 months ago. I have bought my new Titleist driverand I am off on holiday in a few weeks. The world certainly appears tobe better however is this reality or is this a David Copperfieldillusion/ Jedi mind trick? I think you know my answer by now, of courseeveryone is feeling more confident we have just seen one of the largestequity rallies in history. As always I have a "however", has this gainin confidence or expectation translated into anything real. Are houseprices stabilising, is global trade increasing are jobs being createdagain? Only time will tell, despite my new Driver I am still notconfident of hitting the fairway and I am also not confident we are pastthe worst!
Mr P......
Good morning all
FTSE and DOW Future are in a channel with a potential triple top forming. What happens when the DOW re tests 8560 will be key for the USD so keep a firm eye on this level.
GBPUSD keeps breaking new highs and is now sitting firmly under 1.6000. Not easy to trade here unless you short with a stop above the psychological 1.6000 resistance level.
Interestingly EURUSD hasn’t broken previous highs on the 4hr chart. Looking for the DP to break and test the 4hr 20ma. Will keep you posted on any short in EURUSD
Otherwise until these Indices give me clear direction eg a break I am going to hold off on USD related currencies. If the DOW breaks 8560 then forget any USD strength in this market
Thanks
Dan
Yesterday, quite surprisingly we saw the break of the 4hr 50sma which has not only stopped out our longer term position but has now demonstrated a definite change in sentiment for the time being.Anywhere around 95.00-95.20 would represent a good opportunity to go long to the daily 20 some 100 pips higher.Naturally with UJ on the right side of the other yens, which have all looked long on the dailys for quite some time, we are now witnessing breaks above weekly 50’sCADJPY from Friday now almost at the target with 300 pips in the tin.This is a game of patience today. Awaiting these all to pullback to the m.a’s so we can go long off these averages.Not interested in shorting any, and am prepared to sit these pairs out. EURUSD short looks the best of the bunc
Z