The London Open - page 124
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Rock
Thats a gd day though...
Better than my minus 40 pips.
Will make it back and more tom. Never give up!!!
Cheers
D
Good morning all. I hope you are well and that you had a good day yesterday.
Looks like we have the potential of a quiet morning on my side.
The Yen pairs drifted off nicely yesterday but I won’t be looking to jump in to GBPJPY or EURJPY at these levels, not after a 600 and 300 pip drop from specified entries points of yesterday morning.
USDJPY is the only one of these Yens that I am interested in for this session. It hasn’t done a great deal the last couple of days, but although we have a conflick of opinion with 4hr 20 above the 4hr 50 and 60m 20 below 60m 50 it will be interesting to see where this goes.
Need’s to break 90.00 to confirm a move south and certainly wouldn’t be looking for a long position on this.
If it does break the 90.00 level we can look at a short with a stop at 90.50 (above the 60m 20ema), targeting 89.40 for most part of the position then holding the remaining balance to 89.00 then 88.50
Need to wait for 21CCI and trigger on 15m chart.
and the rest………..
GBPJPY-Make fresh lows on 4hr chart. In real danger of 100.00 in the not too distant future, making Japanese beer about 30 pounds a pint!!
No immediate entry available. look for retrace on 4hr chart first.
EURJPY-Not yet taken out the lows of last week so an unconfirmed major continuation. Can only hold tight with this one and wait for some 4hr green.
USDCHF-Looking pretty bid since breaking-out yesterday. Has capability of pushing up to 1.1500 but could use some red on the 60m chart to around 1.1320 before looking for a possible long position.
GBPCHF-Falling nicely with GBPJPY yesterday, but again at a dangerous level just to warrant jumping in. Best to steer clear of this until we get some green on 60m chart.
EURCHF-Failed to break the 1.5020 level yesterday. Looking good on a 4hr chart to continue the move down. Are we going to see this re-test that 1.43 level? It loos likely and definately on thats technical set-up suggest it’s not hugely oversold.
a test of resistance at 1.4820 (60m 20ema) now on the 60m chart, along with the trigger confirming as it crosses back down through the 0.0 could be the move to look out for.
Summary……….
Look for USDJPY to remain BELOW the 60m 20ema at 90.45. If it does then turns back down there may be an opportunity short to the 90.00 region, where we would like to see a break where we can add to the position.
Wait for EURCHF to move up to the 60m 20ema at 1.4820, then see what it does on 15m chart. Should it turn back down on the 15m chart with trigger conriming there would be a nice opportunity for a slightly longer-term short play with a stop above the pivot at 1.4860
and targeting 1.4750, 1.4700 & 1.4650.
Have a good morning.
Zak
Good morning all
Well GBP has made its move and on its way to 1.2500…
—————————————-
GOLD – Looks weak. Look for 60min trigger to line up for downward move.Be patient with AUD, EUR & GBP as retracements are on…
EURGBP – Broken the daily 20ma which is very positive. Look for support off this level. The 4hr 20ma should hold below the DP at 0.9050. Important to watch CABLE today as yes it should continue its fall but the 60min chart suggests a retracement could be on which could limit EURGBP this morning. Worth waiting for 60min trigger on this one.
GOLD – Hasn’t managed to hold the MP at $835.00. Needs a small retracement but should fall again from here. 60min 20ma will protect the upside at $834.00. Looks good for downside on 15min chart.
AUDUSD – With GOLD potentially moving lower AUD will follow. Large support at WS1 at 6550. Look for pullback on 60min chart b4 selling with trend. A break of WS1 would signal a more aggressive move lower.
EURUSD – Yes GBP is weak but what hope has EUR got…Its bad in Europe and I fancy the EUR a lot lower from here. The 60min chart is oversold after yesterday. Too many red candles so going to be patient and wait for retracement b4 selling with trend again.
CABLE – Well we predicted this would happen and it has made new lows. 1.2500 is on the cards but today leaves us with the challenge of a potential retracement. Look how many red candles are on our 60min chart. The risk has increased for us and it is hard to sell here. Look for pullback b4 trading with the downward trend.
OIL – 60min chart shows a clear triangle forming. Look for a break lower and a break below the MP at $43.40 for a move towards the $38.00 level.
Have a great morning and well done for yesterday.
Remember to be patient and wait for trades to come to you.
Dan
Good morning all,
What an aweful day yeesterday for UK financial stocks. We saw record losses being posted by RBS of -£20 b and shares in the Royal back traded as low as -70% but ended the day at -66% down at 11.52 pps. Gordon Brown has critisized the bank for taking extreme risks buying up huge chunks subprime debt and also their purchase of ABM Ambro for £20 b three months before the start of the credit crunch.
Mr Darling has introduced his new structure to help increase lending between banks key poionts below.
• Banks will be able to take up government insurance against their expected bad debts
• The Bank of England will be able to buy up to £50bn worth of assets in companies in all sectors of the economy
• Northern Rock has been given extra time to repay its loans from the government
• The government is increasing its stake in RBS to nearly 70% from 58%. RBS also said it was set to report a huge loss for 2008, with asset write-downs of up to £20bn.
President Obama will be taking centre stage today with the historic Inauguration. He will immediately inherit an economic mess so grave that it recalls the Great Depression, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the burden of being first. Obama has signaled he will make audacious moves on all fronts.
Problems facing the US
The rate of job loss is accelerating, with 2.6 million jobs lost in 2008 alone, and the unemployment rate has soared to more than 7%.
The housing market is still in freefall after two years of declines, and the number of foreclosures, or repossessions, is at a record high.
Federal government’s budget deficit to over $1 trillion, the highest in history and more than double what it was during the last financial year.
Credit Crunch.
Lets see how his $800 b stimulus package will work.
James
Good morning all
Well done to Julie..Her 1st 100 pip day...Excellent work and vvv impressed. No stopping you now!!!
Wel take you pick. I was Mr Conservative again but made my 100 pips but should have cleared up on these short term charts. At least i am short on my long term book in CABLE. This baby is going to 1.2500...
Went short of EURUSD at 1.2930 for 50 pips
Went short of CABLE at 1.3935 to 1.3850 and 1.3873.
Far too conservative but thats the way it goes.
Feel as if i got that par in golf but should have got that birdie!!!(Golfers will know what i mean).
So many options to make pips its scary...EURGBP, EURJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD, GBPCHF, GBPJPY...Trade with the trend and pips come flooding in!!!
See u later.
D
Look how EURUSD bounced back to the DP...Thats why i am conservative...Had to remind myself!!!
It hit WS2 and then bounced as planned so happy with my 50 pips there.
D
PS All because of GOLD...Lovely jubbly.
Hi all
Gold was a peach and WS1 hit...
Well done
D
PS Barry saw u enter this at $850.00. Great entry.
Hi
Havent hit OIL yet but looking closely at it...Trigger on 60min is key and support level.
D
Hi
What an afternoon with expiries...JPYs just kick off and with gbpjpy and eurjpy both falling cable and eurusd had to follow.
Many went short just above the figure..I got in at 1.3800 down to 52..Stealth but happy with 50 pip trades on my short term book...They soon add up over the week...
See u tom...
D
Pipsters,
I come with tail between my legs and tales of KHT's. It started this morning (see chart). Instead of waiting for WTI to break the earlier low I jumped in at 40.47. Watched the price action lift and head towards WP. Instead of panicking I thought "this is just a retracement" so I waited patiently and got another (added too) short position. So I now have effectively 2 short positions in WTI. Note the cross at 41.50. Thats where my s/l was hit so a combined trading loss of -138 pips. Ouch! Why is it a KHT? Two reasons; 1. I did not wait for break of previous low to go short and 2. because I did not wait for a red candle at WP to short again. Lesson learnt yes - well until the next time.
As I had just been badly burnt and not to leave the arena without getting some pips I piled in Gold short and WTI short again!! Gold was a double top formation. My entry 861.7 and stop at 864.7. WTI was short 41.37 and s/l at 42.00. I then went on my spin cycle for 60 mins. Gold got to within 2 pips of my stop. Thanks GFT for not taking me out!! I ended up with +114 pips from that aggressive winner takes all trade. If there had been any justice I should have been stopped out. Why, because it was the right trade at the wrong time. Luck. The WTI trade came and went and frankly I should have got out when the price broke the WP but was thinking revenge. Managed to close out the trade for -18.
My only real and decent trade was GBPCHF. I went long off what I saw as a 15m double bottom. My entry was 15710 which was a bit slow off the mark and meant my s/l was bigger than I wanted at 15660. It came good and I finally got pipped out on my stop at WS-2 15845, a lovely 135 pips. Shame was because I was calmer and not thinking revenge it was a half stake trade. I know they all count but nonetheless it would have been nice.
I was on skype with some mates having come back from lunch. Said to one I really think GBPJPY could be a short. I was looking at 15m chart, and the price heading to this mornings trend break (about 124.85). No sooner had I switched to the 5m chart thinking about an entry when there was a 60 pip candle and then next candle the price had gone. Could I have jumped in? Maybe, but the sensible me was back in control so I just watched the price tumble to D-S2 about 500 pips lower! Hopefully some of you pipsters managed to get on board for the ride, and if you did well done.
To close out, my day was one of two literal halfs. I have closed with +93 pips. Not stellar but after puncturing my pip tin this morning and haemoraging pips it feels like a nice total to finish with.
Lesson - don't jump in to trades especially with the beast and then compound your error by being to arrogant or stupid to cut the trade.
A special thanks to Honest Bill - he knows why. Thanks Bill for reminding me about trading the strategy. It is much appreciated.
Have a great evening pipsters.
Looking forward to a solid day tomorrow.
Gungho Rockie