Forecast and levels for EURO - page 20

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.07 08:53

EUR/USD - daily bullish breakout (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish breakout located above Ichimoku cloud: the price is breaking 1.2088 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "The euro concluded the first week of the year effectively where it started, with see-saw price action dominating trade. The indecision comes as no surprise given where it is currently trading. Last year’s high arriving around the 2012 low led to a fairly lengthy correction."
  • "EUR/USD will need to break above 12092 to further along its move higher. The channel dating back to mid-December keeps the near-term bullish trend structure intact. As long as the lower parallel holds, then it shouldn’t be long before a breakout develops."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.08 16:39

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: European Union Economic Sentiment Indicator and range price movement 

2018-01-08 10:00 GMT | [EUR - Economic Sentiment Indicator]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Economic Sentiment Indicator] = Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is calculated monthly based on the five survey market confidence indices: industrial, service, consumer, construction and retail confidence indices (indices are listed in descending order of weights in ESI calculation).

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From rttnews article :

  • "Eurozone economic confidence strengthened further in December, reaching its highest level seen since late 2000. The economic confidence index rose more-than-expected to 116 from 114.6 in November, survey results from the European Commission showed Monday. This was the highest reading since October 2000 and above the forecast of 114.7."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by European Union Economic Sentiment Indicator news event 


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The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.12 15:04

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CNH: U.S. Retail Sales

2018-01-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From cnbc article :

  • "U.S. retail sales increased in December as households bought a range of goods and figures for the prior month were revised higher, suggesting the economy exited 2017 with strong momentum."
  • "The Commerce Department said on Friday that retail sales rose 0.4 percent last month. Data for November was revised to show sales gaining 0.9 percent instead of the previously reported 0.8 percent increase."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


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GBP/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 
EU D1


1.22000 is the level to watch next week.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.14 08:57

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2018, January 14 - January 21 (based on the article)

EUR/USD had an excellent week that saw more volatility than the prior week with the pair hitting the highest levels in over three years. Is there more to come? Final inflation figures stand out in the week before the ECB decision. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.


  1. Trade Balance: Monday, 10:00. The euro-zone enjoys a wide trade surplus thanks to Germany’s robust exports. This surplus stood at 19 billion euros in October and could rise now, as we already know that Germany saw a wider surplus in November and despite France’s wider deficit. A surplus of 22.4 billion is on the cards.
  2. German Final CPI: Tuesday, 7:00. The initial read for December showed a monthly rise of 0.6% in prices in Europe’s largest economy. The final read will likely confirm the initial read.
  3. CPI (Final): Wednesday, 10:00. The flash estimate of euro-zone CPI showed an OK figure on the headline: 1.4% y/y, in line with expectations. However, core inflation remained at 0.9%, below 1%, for the third consecutive month, showing that underlying inflation is still poor. The final read will likely confirm the initial estimate.
  4. Jens Weidmann speaks Thursday, 8:!5. The president of the German Bundesbank will make another public appearance. Will he provide a hint about an announcement about the end of QE? We know that he is a hawk, so making dovish remarks could have a bigger impact than hawkish ones. Nevertheless, his words could move markets.
  5. German PPI: Friday, 10:00. Producer prices missed in November by rising by only 0.1%, breaking a streak of figures coming out ahead of forecasts. Inflation in the pipeline, as reflected by PPI, still seems stronger than CPI. A rise of 0.2% is expected.
  6. Current Account: Friday, 10:00. Similar to the narrower trade balance figure, the wider current account measure is in a significant surplus. The figure for October was relatively low, with 30.3 billion, a miss on estimates. We could see a higher number in the read for November. A surplus of 31.3 billion is predicted.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.18 15:06

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and GOLD: U.S. Housing Starts

2018-01-18 13:30 GMT | [USD - Housing Starts]

  • past data is 1.30M
  • forecast data is 1.28M
  • actual data is 1.19M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Housing Starts] = Annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month.

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From cnbc article :

  • "U.S. homebuilding fell more than expected in December, recording its biggest drop in just over a year, amid a steep decline in the construction of single-family housing units following two months of hefty gains."
  • "Housing starts decreased 8.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.192 million units, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. November's sales pace was revised up to 1.299 million units from the previously reported 1.297 million units."
  • "December's percentage drop was the largest since November 2016. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts decreasing to a pace of 1.275 million units last month."

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EUR/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Housing Starts news events


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NZD/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Housing Starts news events


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XAU/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Housing Starts news events


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The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

In the daily chart, last pin bar was formed above the support level of 1.21500. Would like to see if EURUSD goes lower to the more stronger support level before making the reversal to continue the main trend.

 
The FXStreet Forecast about EUR/USD is a sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to this Friday's 15:00 GMT price but it seemed to weeken during the day of friday still EUR/USD is in range.
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.22 09:07

EUR/USD - strong bullish on daily; 1.2323 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is testing resistance level at 1.2323 together with ascending triangle pattern to above for the bullish trend to be continuing, otherwise - daily bullish ranging within the levels.


  • "Euro technical positioning is warning of a turn lower against the US Dollar once again after the single currency rose to the strongest level since December 2014. Negative RSI divergence points to ebbing upside momentum andthe appearance of a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern may precede a top."
  • "Near-term support comes in at 1.2164, the January 18 low, with a break below that opening the door for a retest of former resistance marked by the September 8 high at 1.2092. Alternatively, a push above the January 17 high at 1.2323 clears the way for a challenge of the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.2458."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


 
Weekly


This week is almost the last week in January. Between the second and third week in February, give more attention to EURUSD.

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