Forecast and levels for EURO - page 11

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.25 10:47

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and range price movement 

2017-08-25 09:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]

  • past data is 116.0
  • forecast data is 115.5
  • actual data is 115.9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers. 

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From official report :

  • "The ifo Business Climate Index edged downwards from 116.0 points last month to 115.9 points in August. But sentiment among German businesses remains very strong. The decline was due to slightly less positive assessments of the current business situation. Companies’ short-term business outlook, by contrast, improved. Germany’s economy remains on track for growth."
  • "In manufacturing the index once again broke last month’s record. Companies were slightly less satisfied with their current business situation, which nevertheless remains strong. They expressed greater optimism about the short-term outlook. In the automotive sector cartel allegations and the diesel affair have not been reflected in the survey results to date, with the business climate index remaining at a very high level."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by German Ifo Business Climate news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.25 19:47

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and Dollar Index: Fed Chair Yellen Speech

2017-08-25 15:00 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]

[USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech] = Speech about financial stability at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, in Jackson Hole.

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From marketwatch article :

  • "In a speech at Jackson Hole symposium, Yellen defended postcrisis banking regulations and spoke about the financial system instead."
  • "U.S. stocks pared gains but remained in positive Friday as investors appeared disappointed that Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen offered no clues to the central bank’s monetary policy path."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.26 07:11

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, August 27 - September 03 (based on the article)

EUR/USD was looking good during the last full week of August and remained range-bound. What’s next? The inflation figures stand out as we turn the page into September. 


  1. Monetary data: Monday, 8:00. The European Central Bank measures the amount of money in circulation (M3 Money Supply) and private loans. The ECB’s expansionary policies pushed the volume of loans back to growth after a period of declines.
  2. German GfK Consumer Climate: Tuesday, 8:00. The score of 10.8 seen in July is the highest in many years.
  3. French Consumer Spending: Tuesday, 6:45. Consumer spending surprisingly dropped by 0.8% in June, rose than expected. Figures so far this year have been quite mixed.
  4. French GDP: Tuesday, 6:45. According to the initial release for Q2, the French economy grew by 0.5%, a robust rate of growth but slightly below the euro-zone average of 0.6%. This publication will likely confirm the first one.
  5. Spanish Flash CPI: Wednesday, 7:00.
  6. German CPI: Wednesday, during the morning, with the all-German number at 12:00. In July, prices in Germany advanced by 0.4%, double the early expectations, eventually pushing the euro-zone numbers higher.
  7. German Retail Sales: Thursday, 6:00.
  8. French CPI: Thursday, 6:45. Similar to Germany, also France’s prices came out higher than expected, but they still slipped by 0.3%.
  9. German Unemployment Change: Thursday, 7:55. This report is also the last one before the German elections on September 24th. Another drop will support Chancellor Angela Merkel.
  10. CPI (preliminary): Thursday, 9:00. The preliminary numbers for August will shape expectations for the ECB meeting.
  11. Unemployment Rate: Thursday, 9:00. An unemployment rate of 9.1% was seen in June, the lowest in 8 years. Another slide is on the cards.
  12. Manufacturing PMIs: Friday, 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, final figures for France at 7:50, final German numbers at 7:55 and the final euro-zone figure at 8:00.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.28 12:10

EUR/USD - daily bullish; 1.1941 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart for the ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1941 resistance level located in the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 1.1661 support level located in the beginning of the daily bearish reversal to be started.

Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above together with 1.1941 resistance evel for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "The Euro posted the largest daily gain in two months against the US Dollar, clearing the swing high set in early August and hinting the rising trend launched in mid-April is resuming. The move higher follows the currency pair’s completion of a bullish Flag chart pattern, as expected. From here, a daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.1964 opens the door for a challenge of the 50% level at 1.2057. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 23.6% Fib at 1.1848 paves the way for a retest of the August 17 swing low at 1.1662."
  • "Current positioning does not seem to offer an actionable trade setup. Prices are too close to immediate resistance to justify getting long from a risk/perspective whereas the absence of a defined bearish reversal warns that taking up the short side is premature. On balance, staying flat seems most prudent for now."


 

By the way, the daily price is breaking 1.1941 resistance for the bullish breakout to be continuing:


Same situation is with weekly chart:

 

As to the price on the monthly chart so the price is going to be started with the bullsh reversal soon:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.29 17:54

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CNH: Consumer Confidence Index

2017-08-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 120.0
  • forecast data is 122.6
  • actual data is 122.9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in July, improved further in August. The Index now stands at 122.9 (1985=100), up from 120.0 in July. The Present Situation Index increased from 145.4 to 151.2, while the Expectations Index rose marginally from 103.0 last month to 104.0."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Consumer Confidence Index news events


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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Consumer Confidence Index news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Consumer Confidence Index news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.01 14:57

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY: Non-Farm Employment Change

2017-09-01 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 189K
  • forecast data is 180K
  • actual data is 156K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 156,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in manufacturing, construction, professional and technical services, health care, and mining."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.02 09:15

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, September 03 - September 10 (based on the article)

EUR/USD made a big breakout and topped 1.20 but fell quite quickly as well. Will it continue higher? The ECB meeting is undoubtedly the key event of the week, and there are other events as well. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.


  1. Spanish Unemployment Change: Monday, 7:00. Another drop is likely now.
  2. PPI: Monday, 9:00. In June, prices dropped by 0.1% m/m, as expected.
  3. Services PMIs: Tuesday: 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, final French data at 7:50, final German figures at 7:55 and the final euro-zone number at 8:00.
  4. Retail Sales: Tuesday, 9:00. A rise of 0.5% was seen in June.
  5. GDP (revised): Tuesday, 9:00. The updated version for Q2 GDP will likely confirm it.
  6. German Factory Orders: Wednesday, 6:00.
  7. Retail PMI: Wednesday, 8:10. 
  8. German industrial output: Thursday, 6:00. Contrary to factory orders, this measure of industrial production disappointed with a drop of 1.1% in June.
  9. French Trade Balance: Thursday, 6:45. France suffers from a chronic trade deficit. In June, this deficit widened to 4.7 billion. A similar figure is likely now.
  10. ECB decision: Thursday, 11:45, press conference at 12:30. Will the ECB announce QE tapering? And what will the scale be?
  11. German Trade Balance: Friday, 6:00. The surplus reached 21.2 billion.
  12. French industrial output: Friday, 6:45.

 

Today is September 6, 2017. The maximum price of EURUSD was 1.2070 on August 29, 2017. After that, there were no serious events that could seriously move the price anywhere. After that, we had NonFarm = 156K (it's less than 200K) on September 1, which did not affect the situation in any way. (When NonFarm is more than 200K, this provokes serious movement.)

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