Forecast and levels for EURO - page 8

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.20 11:48

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Minimum Bid Rate and range price movement 

2017-07-20 12:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]

  • past data is 0.00%
  • forecast data is 0.00%
  • actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system. 

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From official report :

  • "At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases."
  • "Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council confirms that the net asset purchases, at the current monthly pace of €60 billion, are intended to run until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. The net purchases are made alongside reinvestments of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase programme. If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stands ready to increase the programme in terms of size and/or duration."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB Minimum Bid Rate news event 



 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.20 15:42

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Dollar Index and Bitcoin/USD: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

2017-07-20 13:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.

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From official report :

  • "The index for current manufacturing activity in the region decreased from a reading of 27.6 in June to 19.5 this month (see Chart 1). The index has been positive for 12 consecutive months, but July’s reading is the lowest since November. Thirty-seven percent of the firms indicated increases in activity in July, down from 42 percent last month. The shipments index decreased 16 points, while the new orders index fell 24 points. Nearly 31 percent of the respondents reported a rise in new orders this month, down from 45 percent in June. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes were positive for the ninth consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and increases in unfilled orders."
  • "Firms reported overall increases in manufacturing employment this month, but the current employment index fell 5 points. The index has been positive for eight consecutive months. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employment was 17 percent, while 6 percent reported a decrease. The average workweek index has been positive for nine consecutive months but decreased 17 points."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events


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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events


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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events


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BTC/USD M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events



 

Very good rally on the EURUSD, it may try to reach the 1.1700 level, but a better resistance could be the 55 month EMA around the 1.1758 level, zone that the pair has not visited since January 2015.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.22 11:47

EUR/USD - bullish breakout; 1.1682 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish breakout by 1.1682 resistance level to be crossing to above for the bullish breakout trend to be continuing.


  • "Heading into last week and the ECB meeting we held a bullish outlook for the euro, with eyes for the 2016 high over 11600, and on a push through that level would bring into play the August 2015 high sitting just north of 11700. To close out last week the euro finished between the two eyed thresholds. The path of least resistance is clearly higher, but from a risk/reward perspective chasing the current up-move into resistance without a correction isn’t particularly attractive. At any point here we could at the least see a minor retracement if not something more. However, with that said, when a trend gains as much traction as EURUSD has there is always the risk that we see one side of the market (shorts) throw in the towel, resulting in a sharp squeeze."
  • "We have a catalyst this coming week which has potential to do just that, as the FOMC is set to release its decision on interest rates and policy statement. Rates are expected to remain unchanged, but any material signaling for the September meeting could have a sizable impact on the US dollar. Join us live for FOMC coverage on Wednesday. If the euro continues to gain steam and breaks the August 2015 high at 11714, the next natural level of resistance doesn’t arrive until the 2012 low at 12041. It seems unlikely, though, such heights will be reached in the coming week – it would be quite the move. Some back-and-forth seems likely to take place prior to Wednesday between ~11600 and ~11700. After that, we’ll have a clearer picture as to how things will unfold."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.22 11:52

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD (based on the article)


EUR/USD - "According to the newswires, investors latched on to a comment in the post-meeting presser with ECB President Mario Draghi where he said the QE program would be reviewed in autumn. When asked if that meant the September policy meeting, he snapped that if it did, he would have said so. Did the markets pick through a sea of dovish rhetoric to fish out the one pseudo-supportive remark on offer to justify an explosive Euro rally? Perhaps, but that explanation seems fanciful, particularly since revisiting the size of asset purchases has been largely expected in September along with a forecast update."


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.25 08:35

EUR/USD Intra-day - bullish ranging with narrow s/r levels; 1.1684 is the key (based on the article)

EUR/USD H4 price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on ranging with narrow support/resistance levels with symmetric triangle pattern to be testing for the secondary correction to be started or for the bullish trend to be resumed. The key support level for the correction is 1.1625, and the bullish trend will be continuing if the price breaks 1.1684 resistance level.


  • "EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 24.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 3.06 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.06665; price has moved 9.2% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 12.6% higher than yesterday and 0.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.3% higher than yesterday and 7.9% higher from last week."


 

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EUR/USD Forecast and Daily Updates

fxpipsuk, 2017.07.25 10:19

On Monday, the EUR/USD combine pulled over from 2-year highs on somewhat baffling Euro-zone PMI prints and humble US Dollar recuperation, which provoked merchants to forget about a few benefits. In the mean time, the US information out on Monday, with existing home deals falling more than anticipated, stretched out little help to the greenback recuperation move and restricted further downslide for the major. The match recaptured some new footing amid Asian session on Tuesday in front of the German IFO file, due for discharge amid early European session. Later amid the NA session, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index would likewise be looked upon to get some transient exchanging openings. 

From a specialised viewpoint, the combine appears to have entered a solidification stage at the best end of a fleeting climbing pattern channel arrangement on every day outline. With here and now specialised markers as yet indicating somewhat close term overbought conditions, and in front of the key occasion chance - FOMC choice, the combine's close term bullish direction will probably take an interruption close to the said leap, right now close to the 1.1700 handle. On the other side, a definitive draw back beneath 1.1625 level, prompting a consequent dip under the 1.1600 handle, could broaden the restorative slide towards an imperative resistance turned help close mid-1.1500s.


 

CB Consumer Confidence 


Consumer Confidence rised to 121.1 from 117.3 which is good for USD, and that is why EUR/USD price M5 timeframe was bounced from 1.1712 resistance level to below for 1.1651/1.1645 to be testing. For now, the price is on ranging within narrow s/r levels waiting for the direction.


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.27 09:27

EUR/USD - breakout with possible long term bullish reversal; 1.1777 is the key (based on the article)

Monthly price is on bear market rally located near and below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price is testing 1.1777 resistance level to above for the bullish reversal to be started with the secondary ranging way.


  • "EUR/USD captured headlines today as it printed a fresh 2.5 year high on the heels of Yellen cautiously looking at inflation. We have been bullish EUR/USD since May 22 targeting a retest of the 1.16 highs. Now that we have arrived, what’s next? Is this new 30 month high a fresh breakout or a fake out to draw the bulls in?"
  • "The model we are following shows the shorter term trend may be nearing the end of this upward trend. Multiple models are pointing to a sell off towards 1.1250-1.1400. From there, the models begin to diverge."


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.27 14:54

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: Durable Goods Orders

2017-07-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is -0.8%
  • forecast data is 3.5%
  • actual data is 6.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = hange in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From abcnews article :

  • "US durable goods orders climbed 6.5 percent in June, most in nearly three years, on surging demand for civilian aircraft."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events



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