Forecast and levels for EURO - page 4

[penny128]

Sergey Golubev:

cheers and thanks for the market analysis. You have a point on most of the outlooks but don't you think we see 1.14 and 1.15 and then a move down to 1.08+-?

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.21 08:57

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, May 21 - May 28 (based on the article)

EUR/USD reached the highest in six months, mostly enjoying the weakness of the dollar. PMIs, a key German survey and the ECB meeting minutes stand out in the last full week of May.

1. German GDP (final): Tuesday, 6:00.
2. German Ifo Business Climate: Tuesday, 8:00.
3. ECB Financial Stability Review: Tuesday, 8:00.
4. German GfK Consumer Climate: Wednesday, 6:00.
5. Flash PMIs: Wednesday morning. Data for France is published at 7:00, for Germany at 7:30 and 8:00 for the euro-zone.
6. ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 11:30. In the last ECB meeting, Draghi showed optimism on growth but was doubtful about inflation, postponing any announcement about tapering of the QE program.
7. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Thursday, 13:00.

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.22 15:10

Big Week for Global Markets (based on the article)

EUR/USD Rockets-through 1.1200
"Of recent, we’ve seen a concerted effort from the European Central Bank to allay concerns of QE-taper. We heard Mario Draghi speak to this at the most recent ECB meeting, remarking that the bank hadn’t yet begun discussions around exit strategies; but judging by price action, markets aren’t necessarily buying that idea, as Mr. Draghi’s dovish assurances merely brought on a quick support test, and this was followed by three weeks of strength as EUR/USD has run from a post-ECB low of 1.0839 up to a fresh six-month high of 1.1246."

USD/JPY is Back in the Bearish Channel
"The latter portion of April and the early portion of May saw the return of the USD/JPY bullish theme, as the pair broke out of the downward sloping channel that had governed price action since the open of the New Year. But the reversal on Tuesday and Wednesday broke below a key zone of support comprising the area from 111.61-112.40; and now we can see this ‘zone’ acting as near-term support by capping the highs over the past three trading days."

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.24 06:48

EUR/USD: Bullish: Still bullish (based on efxnews article)

United Overseas Bank (UOB) is suggesting for traders to exit from buy position in case the price will go closer to 1.1300 resistance level:

• "EUR eked out a marginal new high of 1.1267 yesterday before easing off quickly. The price action is not surprising as we have held the view that that “while the outlook for this pair is still bullish, the odds for extension to 1.1300 are not high”. That said, only a break below 1.1130 would indicate that the bullish phase that started last Wednesday, 17 May has ended."
  
• "We have suggested taking partial profit at 1.1170 last Friday and those who are still long should look to exit their position if there is another push towards 1.1300."

[[Deleted]]

Sergey Golubev:

EUR/USD April-June 2017 Forecast: ranging rally within narrow s/r levels

W1 price is below Ichimoku cloud for the primary bearish market condition with the ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 1.0828 resistance level located below the cloud in the beginning of the secondary rally to be resumed, and
• 1.0493 support level located far below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. 

Chinkou Span line is below the price indicating the bearish ranging condition by direction, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the secondary rally for now, and Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as a ranging. Non-lagging Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen signal is for ranging bearish market condition for now and for very near future for example.

• If the price breaks 1.0828 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the secondary rally within the bearish condition will be started.
  
• If weekly price breaks 1.0493 support level on close bar to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed with 1.0324 nearest weekly target to re-enter.
• If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.
  

Resistance	Support
1.0828	1.0493
1.1299	1.0324

Trend:

W1 - ranging bearish

[Sergey Golubev]

Phongsak Khamwong:

This was correct analysis (for W1 timeframe): the price broke 1.0828 resistance to above for the secondary rally. Besides, weekly price broke Ixchimoku cloud to above for the bullish reversal. And the s/r levels for now are the following:

Resistance	Support
1.1211	1.0950
1.1326	1.0569

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.29 06:49

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, May 28 - June 04 (based on the article)

EUR/USD had a positive week in general, rising as prospects continue looking better in the euro-zone in comparison to the US. The upcoming week features preliminary inflation figures and PMIs. 

1. Monetary data: Monday, 8:00. A small deceleration to 5.2% is on the cards.
2. Mario Draghi talks: Monday, 13:00. The President of the ECB will testify in front of the European Parliament and could provide some insights about the next moves of his institution.
3. German Import Prices: Tuesday, 6:00. A bounce worth 0.2% is predicted now.
4. French Consumer Spending: Tuesday, 6:45. A rise of 0.8% is predicted.
5. French GDP: Tuesday, 6:45.
6. Spanish Flash CPI: Tuesday, 7:00.
7. German CPI: Tuesday, with the German states publishing their data during the morning. The all-German preliminary CPI is released at 12:00.
8. German Retail Sales: Wednesday, 6:00. A quicker rise of 0.4% is now expected.
9. French CPI: Wednesday, 6:45.
10. German Unemployment Change: Wednesday, 7:55. A fall of 15K was seen in March and now a similar slide of 14K is on the cards.
11. CPI (preliminary): Wednesday, 9:00.
12. Unemployment Rate: Wednesday, 9:00. Another small slide to 9.4% is on the cards now.
13. Manufacturing PMIs: Thursday morning: 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, 7:50 for the final French figure, 7:55 for the final German number and finally the final all-European update at 8:00.
14. Spanish Unemployment Change: Friday, 7:00. A drop of 129.3K was seen in April and another big slide of 110.2K is on the cards for May.
15. PPI: Friday, 9:00. A fall of 0.3% was seen last month and a bounce of 0.2% is predicted now.

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.30 17:24

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CNH: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2017-05-30 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

• past data is 119.4
• forecast data is 120.1
• actual data is 117.9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report:

• "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had decreased in April, declined slightly in May. The Index now stands at 117.9 (1985=100), down from 119.4 in April. The Present Situation Index increased marginally from 140.3 to 140.7, while the Expectations Index declined from 105.4 last month to 102.6 in May."
• “Consumer confidence decreased slightly in May, following a moderate decline in April,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “However, consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions held steady, suggesting little change in overall economic conditions. Looking ahead, consumers were somewhat less upbeat than in April, but overall remain optimistic that the economy will continue expanding into the summer months."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.31 19:25

EUR/USD - daily price is on weekly resistance to be tested; 1.1268 level is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish ranging within 1.1268 weekly resistance level and 1.1095 support level. If the price crosses 1.1268 resistance so the bullish trend will be continuing, otherwise - bullish ranging within the levels.

• "The CAC 40 and EUR/USD are rebounding this morning, paring losses from earlier this week. This bounce in European markets has come despite Euro-Zone CPI being reported under expectations for the month of May. EUR-Zone CPI (YoY) (May) was expected at 1.5%, but released at an actual 1.4%. With little European news left on the calendar, traders will next be looking to Friday’s U.S. Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (May) to provide direction. Expectations for Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls (May) are currently set at 180k."
• "The EUR/USD has now risen as much as 119 pips from yesterday’s low of 1.1109.Unlike the CAC 40, the EUR/USD has already broken out above its 10 day EMA which is found at 1.1171. With prices trading higher, traders may next look for the pair to challenge the standing 2017 high at 1.1268. If the EUR/USD is rejected below the yearly high, traders may look for the pair to trade back below its 10 day EMA. In a bearish scenario traders may look for the EUR/USD to then trade to new weekly lows under 1.1109, then potentially push to new monthly lows under 1.0839."

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.02 15:00

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD: Non-Farm Employment Change

2017-06-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Payrolls]

• past data is 174K
• forecast data is 181K
• actual data is 138K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Payrolls] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report:

• "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 138,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported  today. Job gains occurred in health care and mining."
• "The unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.9 million, changed little in May. Since January, the unemployment rate has declined by 0.5 percentage point, and the number of unemployed has decreased by 774,000."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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