Forecast and levels for Dollar Index - page 17

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.16 09:37

Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement (based on the article)

Dollar Index (DXY) daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Sunday evening started with a bang in the U.S. with the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee announcing its second emergency (intermeeting) rate cut in two weeks, with the Fed Funds target now set at 0% to 0.25%.  The markets quickly responded with a raspberry, as U.S. equity futures gyrated for a few minutes before hitting the “limit down” level of 5%."
  • "The Fed now has used up its ammunition.  There is really very little that the Fed or any other world central bank can do to ensure liquidity remains in the financial system.  Except for some weirdness in Thursday and Friday trading —which saw mortgage rates spike, for instance—this COVID-19 sell-off has been largely unaccompanied by any systemic financial system stress."
  • "Stocks are declining for a reason that is refreshing to those of us in the old-timers’ cohort.  Earnings estimates are declining and will continue to do so.  COVID-19’s impact on the earnings power of Corporate America is completely unknown at this point and, frighteningly, is also completely uncomprehended in consensus earnings estimates for the S&P 500."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.23 18:46

Dollar Index (DXY) - bullish ranging to correction (based on the article)

Dollar Index (DXY) by Metatrader 5

Dollar Index (DXY) chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The US Dollar has notched an incredible surge over the last two weeks. In fact, the US Dollar Index, or DXY Index, is up a whopping 7% since its March 09 low. Greenback gains have been largely attributed to demand for safe-haven currencies recently dominating forex market dynamics.

    This has resulted primarily from sustained risk aversion amid the coronavirus pandemic, which continues to plague the world and paralyze economic activity. In response to economic fallout stemming from the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, global central banks have coordinated to provide massive amounts of stimulus via interest rate cuts and quantitative easing."

  • "After this morning’s eye-popping headline that the Fed announced unlimited QE crossed the wires, however, the US Dollar has begun to come under pressure. Specifically, the Federal Reserve revealed extensive new measures to support the economy like boosting purchases of Treasury securities and agency mortgage backed securities "in the amounts needed to support". In addition to unlimited balance sheet expansion, or QE-infinity, the FOMC announced a monumental change to its monetary policy arsenal: a new credit facility to purchase US investment grade corporate bonds off the open market – including US listed exchange traded funds (ETFs) like the iShares investment grade corporate bond ETF (ticker symbol: LQD). With the Fed ramping up asset purchases, and the market supply of USD circulating the financial system, the broader US Dollar is starting to pull back from three-year highs with the DXY Index trading at session lows."

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

The forum threads
  1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
  2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
  3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
  4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

  1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
  2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
  3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
  4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.26 16:12

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD, USD/JPY and Dollar Index: United States Initial Jobless Claims

2020-03-26 12:30 GMT | [USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims]

  • past data is 282K
  • forecast data is 1648K
  • actual data is 3283K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

==========

From official report :

  • "In the week ending March 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 3,283,000, an increase of 3,001,000 from the previous week's revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous high was 695,000 in October of 1982. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 281,000 to 282,000. The 4-week moving average was 998,250, an increase of 765,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 232,250 to 232,500."
  • "The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending March 14, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 14 was 1,803,000, an increase of 101,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since April 14, 2018 when it was 1,824,000. The previous week's level was revised up 1,000 from 1,701,000 to 1,702,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,731,000, an increase of 27,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 1,703,250 to 1,703,500."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

USD/CAD: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.02 17:12

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/JPY and Dollar Index: United States Initial Jobless Claims

2020-04-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims]

  • past data is 3307K
  • forecast data is 3600K
  • actual data is 6648K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

==========

From official report :

  • "In the week ending March 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 6,648,000, an increase of 3,341,000 from the previous week's revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous week's level was revised up by 24,000 from 3,283,000 to 3,307,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,612,000, an increase of 1,607,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 6,000 from 998,250 to 1,004,250."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.15 17:29

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/JPY and NZD/USD: United States Retail Sales Ex Autos

2020-04-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Retail Sales]

  • past data is -0.4%
  • forecast data is -4.9%
  • actual data is -4.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

==========

From npr.org article :

  • "Retail spending is in a free fall — nosediving a record 8.7% last month — as more companies continue to furlough workers as stores, malls and restaurants remain shuttered across the country during the coronavirus pandemic. The March drop was the largest monthly fall since the Commerce Department began tracking retail sales three decades ago. The previous record was a 3.9% drop in November 2008, during the Great Recession. Economists are warning that April might show an even bigger decline in retail spending as shutdowns continue — and in some areas didn't begin in earnest until late March." 
  • "Best Buy, for example, said on Wednesday that it's temporarily furloughing 51,000 workers, including almost all part-time workers. It's retaining 82% of the chain's workforce, but many other retailers have fared worse. Macy's and other department stores have temporarily closed and furloughed millions of workers. J.C. Penney is considering filing for bankruptcy, Reuters reported on Tuesday."

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

NZD/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

NZD/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

The forum threads
  1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
  2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
  3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
  4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

  1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
  2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
  3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
  4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.30 19:08

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY and Dollar Index (DXY): United States Initial Jobless Claims

2020-04-30 13:30 GMT | [USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims]

  • past data is 4442K
  • forecast data is 3500K
  • actual data is 3839K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

==========

From official report :

  • "In the week ending April 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 3,839,000, a decrease of 603,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 15,000 from 4,427,000 to 4,442,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,033,250, a decrease of 757,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 3,750 from 5,786,500 to 5,790,250."

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news even

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

April Employment Report: 20,500,000 Jobs Lost, 14.7% Unemployment Rate

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.08 15:02

April Employment Report: 20,500,000 Jobs Lost, 14.7% Unemployment Rate



Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 20.5 million in April, and the unemployment rate rose to 14.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. Employment fell sharply in all major industry sectors, with particularly heavy job losses in leisure and hospitality.


The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 45,000 from +275,000 to +230,000, and the change for March was revised down by 169,000 from -701,000 to -870,000. With these revisions, employment changes in February and March combined were 214,000 lower than previously reported.

more..


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.15 15:10

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Retail Sales Ex Autos

2020-05-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Retail Sales]

  • past data is -4.0%
  • forecast data is -8.6%
  • actual data is -17.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

==========

From npr.org article :

  • "In a historic collapse, retail spending in the U.S. nosedived again last month, dropping a record 16.4% as people avoided restaurants, bars, stores and malls during the coronavirus pandemic."

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

The forum threads
  1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
  2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
  3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
  4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

  1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
  2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
  3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
  4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.28 16:20

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

2020-05-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

  • past data is -4.8%
  • forecast data is -4.8%
  • actual data is -5.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the first quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent."

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

XAU/USD: range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

XAU/USD: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.05 15:12

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, Dollar Index (DXY) and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2020-06-05 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is -20687K
  • forecast data is -7750K
  • actual data is 2509K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate declined to 13.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In May, employment rose sharply in leisure and hospitality, construction, education and health services, and retail trade. By contrast, employment in government continued to decline sharply."

==========

GBP/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

GBP/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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