Forecast and levels for JPY - page 3

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.29 15:38

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index and USD/JPY: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-06-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - Final GDP]

  • past data is 1.2%
  • forecast data is 1.2%
  • actual data is 1.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Final GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2017 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 2.1 percent."
  • "Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.0 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.4 percent in the fourth. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.30 11:45

Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: daily bullish reversal; 112.92 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. The price is testing ascending triangle pattern together with 112.92 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing, otherwise - ranging waiting for direction.


  • "The closing levels of May 15 (113.64) and 16 (112.80) are possibly significant as both days hit the market with sharp falls. While USD/JPY did manage to poke its nose above that second resistance level this week, it only did so once and on an intra-day basis, on Thursday."
  • "Those resistance levels will have to be overcome if the pair is to move up and away from the broad range trade which has been in place since May 17, between 112.78 and 109.25. USD/JPY’s inability to crack them doesn’t necessarily mean a catastrophic fall, but it does suggest that that range trade will endure."

 

Good job, thanks for sharing. 

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.02 18:05

Weekly USD/JPY Outlook: 2017, July 02 - July 09 (based on the article)

Dollar/yen drifted to the upside, as the Bank of Japan was left alone as the most dovish central bank. Has the downtrend channel been broken for good? We are still within the wider range: 108.10 to 114.30, but higher.


  1. The upcoming week opens the second half of the year and it’s with a bang. We have a full build up to the US Non-Farm Payrolls, with a small break for the 4th of July festivities. And, the Fed releases its meeting minutes, which may be somewhat less optimistic than the statement.
  2. In Japan, the Tankan indicators are worth mentioning: these are released on Sunday at 23:50 GMT. However, as usual, the US indicators will drive the pair more than anything else.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.08 09:12

USD/JPY -  daily bullish continuation with 114.36 target (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku clud to above for the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition. For now, the price is breaking 113.68 resistance level together with ascending triangle pattern to above for the bullish trend to be continuing with 114.36 nearest daily target to re-enter.


  • "On Friday, USD/JPY broke above 114 for the first time since May in large part due to persistent JPY weakness that was catapulted by a BoJ offer. The Bank of Japan offered to buy unlimited bonds at a fixed rate to help limit front end bond yields and emphasize their Yield Curve Control (YCC) approach to monetary policy. However, there were no tenders, which could mean we’ll see further JGB flattening in the near term as we see across the world. The takeaway message here is that the BoJ is actively engaged as other central banks (we’re looking at you ECB & BoC) are actively disengaging from their prior dovish stances, which could lead to persistent upside in EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.08 11:33

Weekly USD/JPY Outlook: 2017, July 09 - July 16 (based on the article)

Dollar/yen advanced for the fourth week in a row, extending the rise alongside the uptrend support line. Can it continue further to the upside? It is getting closer to the cycle high of 114.30 and the steep uptrend could be hard to sustain.


  • The upcoming week begins with echoes from the Non-Farm Payrolls report and also the G-20 Summit, including the first meeting between Trump and Putin. The focus then shifts to Yellen’s testimony on Wednesday and also on Thursday. This time, she will undoubtedly talk about monetary policy, moving markets.
  • Towards the end of the week, we will get inflation data, that has been quite weak and worrying in the US. Retail sales and consumer confidence will provide a picture of the wider economy.
  • In Japan, we will get the current account, PPI, and the revised industrial output data, but none of these moves markets.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.08 16:48

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)


USD/JPY - "Fresh comments from Chair Janet Yellen may ultimately yield a bullish reaction in the greenback as Fed officials hold a growing discussion to unload the balance sheet over the coming months. With the economy now projected to expand an annualized 2.2% this year, the central bank head may endorse a more aggressive approach in normalizing monetary policy, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may implement another rate-hike ahead of 2018 especially as the region nears full-employment. In turn, Fed Fund Futures may start to reflect a higher probability for a December rate-hike, and USD/JPY may continue to retrace the decline from earlier this year as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) sticks to its Quantitative/Qualitative Easing (QQE) Program with Yield-Curve Control."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.14 09:51

USD/JPY - weekly bullish reversal; 114.17 is the key (based on the article)

Weekly price was bounced from 108.81 support level to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition: the price broke Ichimoku cloud together with 'reversal' Senkou Span lines to above with ascending triangle pattern to be testing together with 114.17 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing. Next nearest bullish targets are 115.50 and 118.65. Bullish breakout target for the long-term bullish trend to be established is 121.69.

Most likely scenario: price crosses 114.17 level to above for the ranging bullish to be started. 


  • "USD/JPY had just forced an upside trendline break and the previous significant high – May 10’s 114.37 – was within striking distance. The Dollar got there alright, breaking in to the 114.40s on July 11, but victory was partial. It only managed to top that summit intraday, still hasn’t managed a higher daily close and has now retreated below. That channel neatly captures all the trading action from June 14’s low to the present day, but it may also offer something of a false positive. After all, the lower bound consists of precisely one intraday low, only about 48 hours old at the time of writing. The amount of reassurance this chart offers bulls must surely be limited."
  • "The trendline below on the other hand passes through three intraday closing levels and two intraday lows. From that point of view, it looks more significant and, as you can see, USD/JPY broke below it this week. The pair is currently very close to support around 113.11. That was July 6’s close and a region around which which had coalesced around for the four previous days. There would also appear to be support around the 111.96 mark."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.15 08:32

Weekly USD/JPY Outlook: 2017, July 16 - July 23 (based on the article)

Dollar/yen attempted to move above the cycle high but was rejected. On its way down, it lost the uptrend line of support. The drivers were both political and monetary.


  • The upcoming week features housing data from the US: building permits and housing starts. Also, watch the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Echoes from Yellen’s testimony and the inflation report will likely reverberate.
  • In Japan, we have a rate decision by the BOJ. Kuroda and co. are unlikely to change their current policy of holding long-term 10-year yields to 0%. The assessment of the economy and mostly inflation will set the tone. The previous BOJ meeting did not yield volatility, but you never know.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.16 10:14

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)


USD/JPY - "On balance, this means the BOJ may need to resort to heavier artillery. Recently disappointing economic news-flow may have defused the need an immediate shake-up of the policy mix, deflating the risk-on swell a bit dialing back upward pressure on bond yields. Signaling the clear prospect of stimulus expansion seems necessary however. In fact, a status-quo announcement may well result in unhelpful Yen gains."


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