Forecast and levels for USD/CNH - page 8

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.07.04 11:06

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Services PMI and range price movement 

2018-07-04 02:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Services PMI]

  • past data is 52.9
  • forecast data is 52.7
  • actual data is 53.9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.

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From rttnews article :

  • "China's private sector expanded at the fastest pace in four months in June on stronger increase across manufacturing and services, data from IHS Markit showed Wednesday. Both manufacturing and services expanded further in June. Growth in manufacturing production rose to a four-month record, but remained moderate and weaker than that seen in the service sector. The services Purchasing Managers' Index climbed unexpectedly to 53.9 from 52.9 a month ago."

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USD/CNH M15: range price movement by Caixin Services PMI news event 

USD/CNH chart by Metatrader 5

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.07.17 07:26

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2018-07-16 03:00 GMT | [CNY - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From shanghai daily article :

  • "China's economy extended its steady growth, expanding higher than expected by 6.8 percent year on year in the first half of 2018, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed yesterday."
  • "The gross domestic product rose 6.8 percent to 41.9 trillion yuan (US$6.3 trillion) in the first half from the same period of last year, the bureau said. The economic growth in the first quarter was 6.8 percent, and 6.7 percent in the second, thus maintaining a consistent growth of between 6.7 and 6.9 percent in 12 straight quarters."

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USD/CNH D1: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news event 

USD/CNH daily Brainwashing chart by MT5

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.08.08 09:56

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and range price movement 

2018-08-08 04:05 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

==========

From econotimes article :

  • "Chinese yuan trades marginally higher after trade balance data, PBOC sets yuan mid-point at 6.8313."
  • "China July 2018 yuan-denominated trade balance decrease to 176.96 cny vs previous 261.88 cny."

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USD/CNH M15: range price movement by China Trade Balance news event 

USD/CNH chart by Metatrader 5

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.08.24 16:33

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index (DXY), USD/JPY and USD/CNH: United States Durable Goods Orders

2018-08-24 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is 0.8%
  • forecast data is -0.7%
  • actual data is -1.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

==========

From thestandard article :

  • "Orders for long-lasting U.S. factory goods fell by 1.7 percent in July, the third decrease in the past four months. The Commerce Department said today that durable goods orders _ items meant to last at least three years such as autos and appliances _ totaled US$246.9 billion last month. Much of that decline came from a steep 35.4 percent drop in orders for non-defense aircraft, a volatile category on a monthly basis."

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Dollar Index (DXY) M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

Dollar Index (DXY) by Metatrader 5

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

USD/JPY by Metatrader 5

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

USD/CNH by Metatrader 5

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.09.27 07:02

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNH, Crude Oil and GOLD (XAU/USD): FOMC Rate and Statement

2018-09-26 19:00 GMT | [USD - Fed Interest Rate Decision]

  • past data is 2.00%
  • forecast data is 2.25%
  • actual data is 2.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Fed Interest Rate Decision] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report :

  • "In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent."
  • "In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

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Crude Oil M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

Crude Oil M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.09 14:54

Interest Rates (adapted from the article)

While there are many factors that figure into the valuation of a currency, one of the most important factors to consider is the country’s interest rates.

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by FOMC Fed Funds Rate news events

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by FOMC Fed Funds Rate news events

AUDUSD M5 : 26 pips range price movement by AUD - Cash Rate news event

AUDUSD M5 : 26 pips range price movement by AUD - Cash Rate news event

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  • "If we have a relatively stable geopolitical and economic situation around the world, the currency market will naturally favor a currency that is seeing a rise in interest rates and further interest rate hike expectations ahead. Still, interest rates aren’t the only factors that move a currency. Other such factors such as war, geopolitical concerns, inflation, correlations to other markets, and many other things can come into play as well."
  • "When interest rates are higher, it tends to attract a lot of foreign investment. This is because money always wants to go to “where it is treated the best.” For example, if you run a huge hedge fund, you will be looking for higher yields for your clients. If country A pays 5% on a bond, while country B pays 2% on the same type of bond, then country A is the clear favorite as to where you should be investing. In order to buy that bond, or invest in that financial vehicle, you need to purchase in the host country’s currency."
  • "Let’s say that you run a large fund out of the United Kingdom. You are instructed to put money to work somewhere, and the most natural place to put a significant amount of your money is going to be where you can find the most growth. Typically, central banks will raise interest rates if an economy is running hot. There is a bit of a timing issue here, but sometimes you may decide to go into a stock market, for which you will need to make purchases in a local currency. The reason for the higher rates is that they are worried about the economy boiling over, but at the same time there is a proclivity for stocks to go higher in that situation. Looking around the world, you decide that Germany is the place that you wish to invest as many of the German multinationals have enjoyed great export growth. In order to buy stocks on the DAX, you will need to buy euros."

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.16 09:22

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2018-10-16 02:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]

  • past data is 2.3%
  • forecast data is 2.5%
  • actual data is 2.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "Consumer prices in China were up 2.5 percent on year in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday. That was in line with expectations and up from 2.3 percent in August."
  • "The statistics bureau also said that producer prices climbed an annual 3.6 percent - exceeding forecasts for 3.5 percent and down from 4.1 percent in the previous month."

==========

USD/CNH M15: range price movement by China Consumer Price Index news event 

USD/CNH M15: range price movement by China Consumer Price Index news event

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.19 07:07

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index and USD/CNH: China Gross Domestic Product

2018-10-19 03:00 GMT | [CNY - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From mainichi.jp article :

  • "China's economy grew 6.5 percent from a year earlier during the July-September period due in part to still robust external demand, official data showed Friday, but the pace was the slowest since 2009 amid a tit-for-tat tariff escalation with the United States. Although the headline figure was in line with the government's target of around 6.5 percent for the year, it was down from the 6.7 percent growth in gross domestic product in the second quarter of this year."
  • "The latest GDP data came amid mounting fears that the world's second-biggest economy would be weighed down by an intensifying trade war with the United States, which has imposed higher tariffs on a wide range of imports from China."

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Dollar Index M15: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events

Dollar Index M15: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

USD/CNH M15: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.31 09:43

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/JPY and USD/CNH: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2018-10-30 14:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 135.3
  • forecast data is 136.3
  • actual data is 137.9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased again in October, following a modest improvement in September. The Index now stands at 137.9 (1985=100), up from 135.3 in September. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – improved from 169.4 to 172.8. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – increased from 112.5 last month to 114.6 this month."

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Dollar Index H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

Dollar Index H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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USD/JPY H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

USD/JPY H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

==========

USD/CNH H4: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

USD/JPY H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.11.14 08:06

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Industrial Production and range price movement 

2018-11-14 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Industrial Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "Industrial production in China was up 5.9 percent on year in October, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. That exceeded expectation for 5.8 percent, which would have been unchanged from the September reading."
  • "The bureau also said that retail sales climbed 8.6 percent on year - missing forecasts for a gain of 9.2 percent, which again would have been unchanged from the previous month."

==========

USD/CNH M15: range price movement by China Industrial Production news event 

USD/CNH M15: range price movement by China Industrial Production news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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