Forecast and levels for CAD - page 6

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Sergey Golubev:



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The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.05 09:09

Weekly USD/CAD Outlook: 2017, November 05 - November 12 (based on the article)

Dollar/CAD continued experiencing upward pressure amid the top-tier figures from Canada. The upcoming week seems a bit calmer at least if we look at the calendar, but it provides a focus on the housing sector. Where will the C$ go next?


  1. Ivey PMI: Monday, 15:00. e now receive data for October which is expected to show 60.2 points.
  2. Stephen Poloz talks: Tuesday, 17:45. The Governor of the Bank of Canada will speak in Montreal and may respond to the latest data: the jobs report and the GDP publications. He may hint about monetary policy in 2018.
  3. Housing Starts: Wednesday, 13:15. 220K is expected now.
  4. Building Permits: Wednesday, 13:30.
  5. NHPI: Thursday, 13:30. A small gain of 0.2% is projected now.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.16 14:59

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Manufacturing Shipments and range price movement 

2017-11-16 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Manufacturing Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Manufacturing Sales] = Change in the total value of sales made by manufacturers. 

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From official report :

  • "Manufacturing sales rose 0.5% to $53.7 billion in September, reflecting higher sales in the petroleum and coal product industry."
  • "Overall, sales were up in 7 of 21 industries, representing 28.9% of the Canadian manufacturing sector. Sales of non-durable goods rose 1.7% to $25.4 billion, while sales of durable goods decreased 0.5% to $28.4 billion."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada Manufacturing Shipments news event 


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The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.17 14:57

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-11-17 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.2%
  • forecast data is 0.1%
  • actual data is 0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

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From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 1.4% on a year-over-year basis in October, following a 1.6% gain in September. The all-items excluding gasoline index rose 1.3% year over year in October, after increasing 1.1% in September."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index news event 


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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 
Trend still bearish for USDCAD, the first test and SHORT exhaust area is located in area 1.2574.
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.29 14:51

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CAD: GDP Second Release

2017-11-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

  • past data is 3.0%
  • forecast data is 3.3%
  • actual data is 3.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the third quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent."
  • "The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.0 percent. With this second estimate for the third quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and private inventory investment were revised up from the prior estimate (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2)."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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USD/CAD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.01 14:36

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada GDP and range price movement 

2017-12-01 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

  • past data is -0.1%
  • forecast data is 0.1%
  • actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. 

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.2% in September after edging down 0.1% in August. Goods-producing (+0.4%) and services-producing (+0.1%) industries rose as 12 of 20 industrial sectors grew, led by the mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sector."

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USD/CAD M15: range price movement by Canada GDP news event 


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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.05 14:35

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Trade Balance and range price movement 

2017-12-05 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -3.2B
  • forecast data is -2.3B
  • actual data is -1.5B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. 

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From official report :

  • "Canada's merchandise trade deficit with the world totalled $1.5 billion in October, narrowing from a $3.4 billion deficit in September. Exports were up 2.7% on higher exports to the United States, while imports decreased 1.6% on lower imports of motor vehicles and parts."

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USD/CAD M15: range price movement by Canada Trade Balance news event 


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The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.06 16:55

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BOC Rate Statement, Overnight Rate and range price movement 

2017-12-06 15:00 GMT | [CAD - Overnight Rate]

  • past data is 1.00%
  • forecast data is 1.00%
  • actual data is 1.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves. 

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From official report :

  • "The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent."
  • "The global economy is evolving largely as expected in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, growth in the third quarter was stronger than forecast but is still expected to moderate in the months ahead. Growth has firmed in other advanced economies. Meanwhile, oil prices have moved higher and financial conditions have eased. The global outlook remains subject to considerable uncertainty, notably about geopolitical developments and trade policies."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by BoC Overnight Rate news event 


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The chart was made on M5 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.08 10:03

USD/CAD - daily bullish ranging near possible bearish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is on ranging above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart within the following support/resistance levels:

1.2909 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed, and
1.2680 support level for the bearish reversal to be started.


  • "The Canadian Dollar rate has fallen across the board after a cautious Bank of Canada aligned with multiple factors that could put further pressure on the CAD. Despite sharp gains last Friday in CAD due to impressive employment gains, the Canadian Dollar rate fell below 1.28 to the USD."
  • "Key drivers of Canadian Dollar weakness in global markets a day after the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged were commodities selling off led by metals like Gold and Copper and the spread between US Treasury 2 year yields and CA 2 year yields widened showing the market believes tightening in the coming years will favor the Federal Reserve. While small on absolute terms, the U.S.-Canada 2-year sovereign rate spread widened to32bps vs. 26bpsbefore Wednesday’s BOC rate decision showing a market forces favor USD for now."
  • "Retail trader data shows 45.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.22 to 1. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDCAD prices may continue to rise."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


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