*Daily Forex market overviews by MasterForex.com* - page 58
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 07/02/2014
The Euro Sharply Rose after the Announcement of the Results of ECB’s Meeting
On Thursday February, 6 the US dollar increased vs. the yen, but decreased vs. the euro and the Australian dollar amid controversial statistics in the USA. Labor Market report appeared to better than expected, whereas the deficit of the US Trade Balance increased more than it was forecasted. The euro sharply rose after the ECB didn’t announce the new measures of monetary policy easing. The Australian dollar strengthened its positions amid positive Australian statistics.
The US dollar strengthened its positions vs. the yen amid the Stock markets growth – Nikkei Futures increased on Thursday by 1,7%. The US dollar strengthening vs. the yen was also supported by the US Labor Market positive data released before the Friday key report of Non-Farm Payrolls. 175 000 – 189 000 of new working places is expected in January, as well as the unchanged Unemployment Rate of 6.7%. Strong Non-Farm Payrolls in January alongside with Unemployment Rate fall will indicate easing of economic situation, which may support the dollar.
Initial Claims in the US last week decreased by 20 000 to 331 000 from the upwards revised 351 000 which appeared to be better than expected 335 000. Initial Jobless Claims decreased for the first time over the last three weeks. 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims inconsiderably increased to 334 000 from 333 750 of the previous week.
The US Trade Balance deficit increased in December by 12% to $38.7B from the upwards revised $34.6B, having exceeded the expectations of growth to $36B. The export of goods and services in the USA decreased in December by 1.8% whereas the import increased by 0.3%. According to the results of 2013 the US external deficit decreased by 11% to its low since 2009 $471.5B. Export of goods and services at the same time increased by 2.8% y/y.
The euro sharply increased having demonstrated the highest growth over the last 2 weeks – after that according to the results oа the meeting the ECB left the interest rates unchanged, and didn’t announce new measures of monetary policy easing, as it was expected by some participants of the market. The ECB’s President Mario Draghi announced that the decision of unchanged policy was made due to the complex situation and the necessity in additional information.
Draghi repeated that the rates will stay at the current level or lower for quite a long time, though he didn’t exclude the possibility of further actions. He also pointed the necessity of data collection of the inflation perspectives. The new medium-term forecast of price stability will be released in March. Sterilization breakdown of the assets purchase, performed in the SMP framework, wasn’t discussed.
The pound sterling had almost no changes according to the results of the day after the Bank of England left the monetary policy, directed to the economy growth stimulation, unchanged. The key interest rate stays at record low of 0.5% as it has been since March 2009. The Central Bank also left Asset Purchase Facility at the rate of £375B. The Bank of England will correct the guidance on 12 February when it will perform BOE Inflation Report.
The Australian dollar strengthened its positions on Thursday till the highest rate vs. the US dollar for over three weeks – after the release of positive Australian statistics. Retail Sales in December increased by 0.35% m/m having exceeded the expectations of growth by 0.4%. NAB Quarterly Business Confidence reached its high in the 4th quarter of 2013 for almost three years at the level of +8 p. from the upwards revised reading of +5 p. in the 3rd quarter. The Trade Balance proficit increased in December to 468 m of Australian dollars from 83 m in November – two months proficit was watched for the first time over 2 years.
The Canadian dollar decreased after the weak Canadian Trade Balance data, the deficit of which appeared to be the highest over the year – but then it won back all the losses after the release of Ivey Manufacturing PMI in Canada. The Trade Balance deficit in Canada increased in December to 1.66B of Canadian dollars from the upwards revised 1.53B having significantly exceeded the expectations. Ivey PMI strengthened its positions in January to 56.8 p. from 46.3 p. in December against the growth forecast to 51 p.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 11/02/2014
The Markets Expect the Speech of the New Federal Reserve Chair
On Monday February, 10 the US dollar was traded almost without changes vs. major currencies before the report of the new Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen in the US Congress on Tuesday. The euro slightly strengthened its positions amid Investor Confidence in the Eurozone. The Canadian dollar slightly decreased amid weak Housing Market data in Canada.
On Monday trading at Forex passed without any definite course, because many participants of the market abstained from large-scale deals on the eve of the first speech of the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen in the US Congress scheduled for Tuesday. There was no significant macrostatistic data released in the USA. On Tuesday Janet Yellen will report before the House Financial Services Committee, and on Thursday – before the Senate.
The markets will expect the signals from the US Central Bank about the QE3 Tapering plans, which negatively influences the dollar. Though straightway signals of the rate’s correction of assets buyout are not expected, confirmation of the US monetary policy continuation will be of great importance, especially after the release of a series of negative statistical economic data.
The US Labor Market report from Conference Board research group didn’t show slowdown in employment growth, which slightly contrasts with official data. Employment Trends Index increased in January to 116.61 from the upwards revised December reading of 115.62. In an annual rate the index increased by 6.0% in January.
The euro slightly strengthened its positions on Monday amid the Investor Confidence growth in the Eurozone. According to research-and-development center Sentix, Investor Confidence in the Eurozone suddenly increased in February by 1.4 p. to 13.3 p., whereas the decrease was expected. The improvement was mainly induced by the growth of current situation estimation in February. Subindex of the current situation appeared to be positive for the first time since August 2011.
At the same time industrial production in Italy and France appeared to be worse than expected. Industrial production in Italy sharply dropped in December after 3 months growth – by 0.9% comparing with November. Industrial production in France in December also decreased more than expected, by 0.3% m/m, whereas no changes were expected before. At the same time petroleum processing volume and automobile production sharply dropped. The German data which was released on Friday also demonstrated decrease of industrial production by 0.6% m/m.
Meanwhile the Minister of Industry of France appealed to Eurozone statesmen to move into action of easing the overestimated euro, which suppresses the economic activity and trading in France. According to him, the most depressed Eurozone region has the most expensive currency. In 2012-2013 the euro increased vs. the US dollar by 10%, and vs. the yen – by more than 40%. At the same time the GDP of the Eurozone countries in 2013 was reduced by 0.2%, whereas the US GDP increased by 3.4%, and the Japanese GDP – by 2.3%.
The Canadian dollar a bit decreased on Monday amid weak Housing Market data in Canada. Housing Starts in Canada in January decreased by 3.7% comparing with the previous month to 180 200 houses per annum, whereas less decrease to 185 000 was expected before. Despite the last positive Employment report – 3-months Employment trend can be hardly considered to be positive. The Canadian dollar is also under pressure of the weakening of the national currency, which didn’t sufficiently influence the Canadian export.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 14/02/2014
Unemployment Rate in Australia Increased to the Highest Level Over 10.5 Years
On Thursday February, 13 the US dollar increased Vs. most major currencies amid weak Retail Sales and Labor Market data in the USA. The strongest growth Vs. the dollar was demonstrated by the Swiss franc. The Australian dollar sharply dropped after the release of weak Labor Market report in Australia. The pound sterling refreshed the year’s high, and the euro strengthened its position Vs. the US dollar to almost 3-weeks high amid the weakness of the dollar.
The US Retail Sales sharply dropped in January by 0.4% comparing with December (highest decrease rate over 10 months) in the lead of auto sales drop, whereas the change in the sales was not expected. Core Retail Sales stayed unchanged comparing with the previous month, whereas growth by 0.1% was expected. Previous month’s data was revised downwards: in December sales decreased by 0.1% m/m, whereas growth by 0.2% was announced earlier.
Considering the revision, the sales are being decreased for the second month in a row, which reflects on the possibility of steady economy recovery this year. After the release of weak Retail Sales data in the USA, Goldman Sachs Bank decreased the US GDP forecast in the first quarter to 1.9% from 2.3%. Goldman Sachs expects for the GDP growth data revision for the 4th quarter from 3.2% to 2.4%.
Initial Unemployment Claims in the USA last week increased by 8 000 to 339 000, from 331 000 of the previous week. The reading which smoothes the volatility of weekly data: 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims increased to 4-weeks high at the level of 336 750 from last week’s 334 000. Increase of initial claims is a troubling sign after the last week’s Employment report, which demonstrated weak augmentation of working places.
The Australian dollar sharply dropped after the release of weak Labor Market report in Australia. According to the report of the Australian Statistics Department Unemployment Rate increased in January to 6% comparing with 5.8% in the previous month, whereas growth only to 5.9% was expected. This is the highest reading over 10.5 years – since June 2003. Employment Change decreased by 3 700, whereas growth by 15 000 was forecasted – at that Full Time Employment Change dropped even more – by 7 100.
The pound sterling refreshed the year’s high. BOE Chief Economist Spencer Dale said that key interest rate increase will be equal to expectations in 2015 – till the end of 206 the rate may reach 2%. The euro increased Vs. the US dollar till the high for almost 3 weeks, having almost no reaction to the Italian government crisis. The ECB in its February Monthly Report decreased the inflation forecasts for this and next year.
The yen strengthened its position on Thursday amid the fall of Asian and European stock markets, which increased demand for save-heaven currencies. Nikkei Futures dropped on Thursday by 1%. The US dollar reduced part of the losses Vs. the yen amid the positive dynamics of the US stock markets.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 17/02/2014
The Eurozone Economy Grows for the Second Quarter in a Row
On Friday February, 14 the US dollar was traded downwards Vs. most major currencies after the release of weak Retail Sales data. Released on Friday Industrial Production report in the USA appeared to be worse than expected. The euro strengthened its positions amid the Eurozone economy growth data, which appeared to be better than the forecasts. The Canadian dollar slightly decreased after the release of weak Manufacturing Sales data in Canada.
The US Industrial Production fell in January by 0.3% comparing to the previous month against the expectations of growth by 0.2%. The Industrial production decreased for the first time over 6 months. Manufacturing Production reduced by 0.8% m/m working towards decrease of the whole industrial production. Capacity utilization decreased by 0.4% to 78.5% keeping to reduce for the second month in a row after reaching of the semiannual high.
The US consumer confidence data released on Friday appeared to be slightly better than expected. Preliminary U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment in February stayed unchanged at the rate of the final January reading of 81.2 p., whereas decrease was expected. There is a bank holiday on Monday in the USA, that’s why the activity of the American session is going to be low.
The pound sterling was closed on Friday at the point higher than $1.67 for the first time since the end of April 2011. The euro increased more than $1.37 for the first time over 3 weeks amid the Eurozone economy growth increase data, which appeared to be better than forecasted. According to preliminary data the Eurozone GDP growth in the 4th quarter composed 0.3% in relation to the previous quarter against the expectations of growth by 0.2%. The French and German economy growth data appeared to be better than expected: the GDP of the largest Eurozone economy zone – Germany – strengthened its positions by 0.4%, whereas +0.3% was forecasted.
The yen strengthened its positions amid the fall of Japanese stock market due to increased demand for save-heaven currency – Nikkei 225 dropped on Friday by 1.5% decreasing for the third day in a row amid another strong snow flurry in Japan. During the week Nikkei lost 1.8%. The Japanese Trade Balance deficit in January may appear to be record high - ¥ 2.49 trillion, which will again mark that weak yen don’t support export growth. The data will be released on Thursday February, 20.
On Friday the Canadian dollar stemmed three-day growth and slightly decreased after the release of weak Manufacturing Sales report in Canada, which dropped by 0.9%, whereas the growth was expected. The sales decreased for the first time over 8 months.
The Australian dollar increased after the Chinese Inflation Rate report, and fully restored after the sharp fall on Thursday amid weak Labor market data in Australia. According to National Bureau of Statistics of China, Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China in January increased by 2.5% comparing to January of the previous year, as in December – whereas growth only by 2.4% y/y was expected. AUD ignored the report of RBA Assistant Governor Kent in which he mentioned than the Australian currency may continue to fall.
The New Zealand dollar strengthened its position Vs. the dollar to the highest rate over the month. The National Bureau of Statistics of New Zealand reported on Friday about the increased inflation pressure in the country. CPI increased in January by 1.2% comparing to the previous month, and by 0.9% comparing to the same period of the previous year. Food Price Index (FPI) increased in January by 1.2% m/m after three months decrease. Besides, Fonterra reported the growth of milk production over 8 months by 4.2% comparing to the same period of the previous year. Milk production export composes ¼ of country’s export income.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 18/02/2014
The Main Events of the Week
On Monday February, 17 the US dollar was traded almost without changes Vs. most major currencies amid the banking holiday in the USA and absence of significant macro statistics in majority of countries. The US dollar strengthened its positions Vs. the pound sterling and the yen, but slightly decreased Vs. the euro and the Canadian dollar.
The Presidents Day was celebrated in the USA; there was a feast day in some provinces in Canada as well. The US dollar slightly decreased at the beginning of the day and refreshed the lows of the year to the dollar index – but then it recovered, having closed almost without changes. The pound sterling increased above level of $1.68 for the first time since November 2009 after the release of positive Rightmove Housing Market report; but then it decreased. According to Rightmove, House Prices in the UK increased in February by 3.3% m/m – it is the highest monthly growth rate since October 2012.
The Australian dollar increased at the beginning of the day amid strong Chinese data released on Saturday, but then it fell. New Yuan Loans increased to 4-year high of 1.32 trillion yuans having exceeded the forecasts at the level of 1.1 trillion. The yen a little lost its positions before the publication of weak GDP report in Japan. According to preliminary data GDP Annualized increased by 1% in the 4th quarter comparing to 1.1% growth in the previous quarter – it appeared to be considerably lower than the expectations of growth by 2.8%. The Japanese economy growth appears to be lower than expected for the 3rd quarter in a row; and this fact increases the chances for the Bank of Japan to take new measures of monetary policy easing.
The euro had almost no changes on Monday, getting support from the prospects of organization of the new Italian government and possible improvement of the Eurozone economy state. Bundesbank Monthly Report states that the German economy experienced rise this winter, and this fact will influence the country’s GDP for 2014. Last week the German government increased the GDP growth forecast in 2014 from 1.7% to 1.8%. At the same time ECB’s Novotny announced that the question of interest rate reduction is still open despite the strong Eurozone economy growth in the 4th quarter.
According to the results of the week the US dollar decreased Vs. all major currencies having lost 0.7% according to the dollar index – the decrease mainly happened during the last two days of the week. The dollar index decreased approximately to 7-weeks highs amid strong snow flurries walloped the south and north-east states of the USA, and weak Retail Sales and Industrial Production data which raise doubts of possible stable economy recovery of the USA this year. The pound sterling demonstrated the biggest growth VS. the US dollar during this week – more than 2%.
There will be quite a lot of data in the USA this week: on Tuesday Empire State Manufacturing Index will be released, as well as Treasury International Capital Data, and NAHB Housing Market Index; on Wednesday – Building Permits, Housing Starts, Producer Price Index, and FOMC Meeting Minutes; on Thursday – Consumer Price Index, and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index; on Friday – Existing Home Sales. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee. The main theses of the first speech are usually repeated in the second one, but something new still may appear.
The main events in the Eurozone will be the release of German ZEW Survey on Tuesday, and Flash Manufacturing PMI, and Flash Services PMI in Germany and France, and in the whole Eurozone on Thursday. On Tuesday Eurozone Current Account will be released; on Friday – European Commission Economic Forecast. In Germany Producer Price Index will be released on Thursday.
Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index will be released in the UK on Tuesday; on Wednesday – MPC Meeting Minutes and Labor Market data; on Friday – Retail Sales. The results of the 2-days meeting of the Bank of Japan will be released on Tuesday. The Japanese Trade Balance will be released on Thursday; and on Friday – Bank of Japan January 21-22 Meeting.
The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be released in Australia on Tuesday; on Wednesday – CB Leading Index, and Wage Price Index. Quarterly Producer Price Index will be released in New Zealand on Thursday. Wholesale Sales will be released in Canada on Wednesday; on Friday - Inflation and Retail Sales reports. HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI will be released in China on Thursday.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 19/02/2014
The Euro Reached the Highs of the Beginning of the Year
On Tuesday February, 18 the US dollar was traded mixed; it fell Vs. the euro and the Swiss franc, but rose Vs. the pound sterling and the yen – amid negative statistics. The pound sterling fell after the weak UK Inflation report. The yen fell after the release of Bank of Japan Meeting Results.
On Tuesday the US dollar decreased after the release of weak US data, and lost 0.2% to the dollar index. Manufacturing PMI, Treasury International Capital Flows and Housing Market data in the USA were negative. Empire State Manufacturing Index sharply fell in February. Empire Manufacturing dropped to 4.48 p. Comparing with 12.51 p. in January, whereas less decrease to 9 p. was expected. New Orders and Supplies Index considerably decreased as well.
The US Treasury International Capital (TIC) data in December demonstrated considerable increase of its outflow in December. Total Net TIC Flows demonstrated outflow of $119.6B against $16.6B of the previous month. The Net Foreign Sales of long-term securities composed $45.9B comparing with the outflow of $28B in November, whereas capital inflow of $30B was predicted.
NAHB Housing Market Index sharply decreased in February and dropped lower than 50, which is the boundary between negative and positive forecast, for the first time over 9 months. Housing Market Index dropped in February to 46 p. (9 month low) comparing with 56 p. in the previous month. The decrease was probably entailed by extreme weather conditions of this winter, shortage of workers, and limited ground access.
On Tuesday the euro went on strengthening its positions, having increased Vs. the US dollar till the highs of the beginning of the year – despite the predictions of ECB’s monetary policy easing next month. The euro ignored slight decrease of German Business Confidence, which fell to three-month lows, though it is still at considerably high rates.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment decreased in February to 55.7 p. comparing with 61.7 p. in January having considerably exceeded the expectations of decrease to 61.5 p. At the same time German ZEW Current Situation increased in February to 50 p. from 41.2 p. in January having exceeded the expectations – it reached the highest rate since August 2011. ECB’s Peter Praet announced on Tuesday that in case of further restricting the Eurozone GDP growth may exceed the expectations.
The pound sterling fell on Tuesday due to the weak Inflation report on the UK, which appeared to be lower than the BOE target range for the first time for over 4 years. Annual change of CPI decreased in January to 1.9% against 2% in December, whereas no changes were predicted. Annualized core inflation dropped in January to 1.6% y/y from 1.7% in the previous month against the expectations of growth to 1.9%. Inflation decrease gives reason to believe that the Central Bank will save low interest rates for economy recovery support. Monetary Policy Committee Member Ian McCafferty announced that economy has enough space for growth before the increase of the rates.
The yen dropped after the release of BOJ Monetary Policy Statement, where the policy was left unchanged – but two special loan programs were doubled and extended for a year in order to increase the stimulation effect and to master the deflation. According to the Central Bank Loan Programs data is of the part of QE. This decision influenced the forecasts of further QE increase.
On Tuesday the Australian dollar reached monthly high Vs. the US dollar after the release RBA February Meeting Minutes, but then it fell. RBA announced the period of stable interest rates which it is reasonable to leave unchanged further. The Canadian dollar slightly strengthened its positions amid oil price hike to 4 month high – it ignores Foreign Securities in December, which appeared to be sold for the first time since June, 2013.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 21/02/2014
China’s HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Dropped to 7-Month Low
On Thursday February, 20 the US dollar strengthened its positions Vs. most major currencies amid controversial statistic data in the USA. The euro decreased amid the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI decrease. The Australian dollar dropped after the release of Chinese Flash Manufacturing PMI decrease data.
The US dollar strengthened its positions by 0.1% to the dollar index amid controversial statistic data. Inflation and Unemployment Claims data in the USA crossed the line of the expectations. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index sharply decreased in February to -6.3 p. (annual low) comparing with 9.4 p. in January, having dropped lower than zero point for the first time over 9 months. At the same time U.S. Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI rocketed in February almost to 4-year high at the level of 56.7 p. from 53.7 p. in January.
The euro dropped amid the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI decrease to 2-month low. All Flash Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing OMI in France, Germany, and Eurozone appeared to be worse than predicted, except for German Non-Manufacturing PMI. Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI decreased in February to 2-month low of 52.7 p. from 52.9 p. in January against the expectations of growth. Producer Price Index in Germany, Consumer Price Index in France, and Euro-zone Flash Consumer Confidence appeared to be worse than it was expected as well.
On Thursday the pound sterling was traded downwards amid lower Factory Orders growth. CBI Industrial Order Expectations increased in February to +3 against -2 in January, whereas growth to +5 was expected. Bank of England’s Martin Weale announced on Thursday that interest rates are likely to be increased in spring 2015.
The Australian dollar sharply dropped after the release of Chinese Manufacturing PMI decrease to 7-month low, but then it gained back all the losses. HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI suddenly dropped in February to 48.3 p., comparing with 49.56 p. in January, whereas decrease only to 49.4 p. was predicted. Weak readings might be caused by the Lunar New Year celebration. The index is being decreased for the second month in a row, and it is above 50 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.
The yen increased after the release of weak Trade Balance data in Japan and Manufacturing PMI in China, but then it lost all the growth amid positive Stock Markets dynamics. Trade Balance deficit in Japan in January appeared to be record high – 2.79 trillion yen, which is twice more than the December level. The deficit growth was expected to reach only 2.79 trillion yen. Export increased only by 9.5% comparing with the reading of the previous year, whereas import increased by 25% y/y amid energy import increase.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 25/02/2014
Commodity Currencies Were Leaders on Monday
On Monday February, 24 the US dollar was traded slightly downwards Vs. most major currencies amid weak statistic data in the USA. The pound sterling strengthened its positions Vs. the US dollar amid growth of Sentiment in the UK Services sector. Commodity currencies increased amid staple prices growth.
The US dollar dropped VS. the pound and major commodity currencies, and had almost no changes Vs. the euro and the yen – having lost about 0.1% to the dollar index. One more series of weak data was released in the USA, though it was not so important. Markit US Flash Services PMI dropped in February to 52.7 p. (4-month low) against 56.7 p. in January, whereas growth was predicted.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity dropped in February to 9-month low at the level of 0.3 p. against 3.8p. in January, having considerably exceeded the expectations of decrease to 3 p. Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased in January to 6-month low at the level of -0.39, comparing with -0.03 in December (revised from +0.16) – decrease to -0.20 was predicted.
The euro increased to year highs after the release of IFO Business Survey in Germany, which are still at its highs since the middle of 2011, but then it decreased after the release of Inflation data. German Business Climate increased in February to 111.3 p. from 110.6 p. in January, whereas no changes were predicted. Assessment of Business Situation considerably exceeded the expectations, whereas Business Expectations decreased.
Though annual Eurozone Inflation Rate in January composed 0.8% having no changes in comparison with December, and having exceeded preliminary estimations at the level of +0.7% - at monthly rate Inflation dropped in January by 1.1% m/m, which appeared to be the highest decrease rate since 2001, when its current practice account began.
The speech of ECB’s Mario Draghi negatively influenced the euro – after G20 Draghi announced that he is ready to act, if the price forecast will become worse, though he doesn’t notice signs of the Eurozone deflation. ECB will have full set of information necessary for decision making – till the meeting of March, 6 – he added. ECB’s Visco also announced the possibility of interfering negative deposit stake will be discussed at the March meeting of the ECB.
The pound sterling strengthened its positions on Monday amid the growth sentiment in the UK Services Sector. The last CBI survey demonstrated that the climate among the UK companies improved to very high level over the recent 3 months. The comments of BOE’s Marc Carney supported the pound sterling as well – he noted that the Central Bank will support the UK economy recovery, which is close to the moment of interest rate increase.
Commodity currencies increased amid risk appetite increase and staple prices growth. The biggest increase Vs. the Us dollar was demonstrated by the Australian dollar. S&P 500 on Monday reached intraday historical high. Oil refreshed 4-month high amid demand increase in the USA, which is connected with weather conditions, and Supplies risks. Gold prices on Monday considerably increased, having reached the level of the end of October 2013.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 27/02/2014
US New Home Sales Reached More Than 5-Year High
On Wednesday February, 26 the US dollar increased Vs. almost all major currencies amid US New Home Sales Increase to 5.5 years high. The US dollar demonstrated the highest growth for almost a month, having strengthened its position to the dollar index by more than 0.3% - before the speech of Fed Chair Janet Yellen on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, which will take place on Thursday.
The US New Home Sales in January suddenly rose by 9.6% m/m – to 468 000 of houses comparing with upwards revised December reading of 427 000. Decrease of sales to 400 000 was predicted. New Home Sales overcame the peak at the level of 452 000, and increased to the highest rate since July, 2008. Nonetheless, previously released indicators pointed the weakness of the House Market. So, Existing Home Sales, where there are the majority of deals – dropped in January to the lowest rate foe over the last 18 months.
FOMC Member Fisher announced on Wednesday that there are no delays predicted for the QE3 – and it will continue even at considerable Stock Market correction. At the same time FOMC Member Eric Rosengren pointed that QE3 may be corrected according to economy growth situation.
The euro dropped on Wednesday to almost 2-week low Vs. the US dollar after not being able to overcome yearly high Vs. the US dollar a bit lower than $1.38. Negative influence to the euro was caused by renewed speculation on the case of possible interest rate decrease in the face of forthcoming ECB Meeting, and situation of strain in Ukraine.
German Consumer Confidence is still at high levels of the middle of 2007; however, this data had no significant influence. GfK Leading Consumer Confidence Index rose in March to 8.5 p. Against 8.3 p. in February having exceeded the expectations.
The pound sterling insignificantly decreased after 2-day growth amid revised UK GDP data for the 4th quarter. The UK economy growth in the 4th quarter composed 0.7% comparing with the previous quarter, which coincided both with preliminary data, and expectations.
However, annual growth rate of the UK economy for the 4th quarter were reduced to 2.7%, whereas according to preliminary estimations they composed 2.8%. BOE’s Spenser Dale announced on Wednesday that the Central Bank doesn't plan to increase interest rates in the nearest future, in spite the recent improvement of the British economy situation.
The Australian dollar dropped amid ironstone prices decrease to almost 8-month low. Ironstone is the most important Australian export item. The prices may continue to decrease further, because its world resources are at a high level, and steel prices have dropped.
House building data in Australia also appeared to be worse than expected – Construction Work Done for the 4th quarter dropped by 1% comparing with the 3rd quarter, whereas increase by 0.4% was predicted. It adds concerns of possible weak country’s GDP in the 4th quarter of 2013. The Australian data will be released on March, 5.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 28/02/2014
US Dollar Drops on Janet Yellen’s Testimony
On Thursday February, 27 the US dollar decrease Vs. most major currencies, having lost slightly less than 0.2% to the dollar index. The US dollar was strengthening its positions in the first half of the day, but dropped during FOMC Chair Janet Yellen’s speech in the Senate Banking Committee. The New Zealand dollar strengthened its positions most of all Vs. the US dollar – amid positive New Zealand Trade Balance data.
The report of FOMC Chair Janet Yellen in the US Senate distinguished itself from the previous report in the US House of Representatives two weeks ago, but this report seemed to be gentler. Yellen announced that in case of considerable change of economy prospects, FOMC may revise QE3 tapering. She also does not see necessity in Fedreserve balance reduction for policy tightening. Yellen admitted the influence of severe weather to recently released economic data, which point out weaker consumer spending.
Released US data appeared to be different, and did not cause much attention – Durable Goods Orders appeared to be better than it was expected, whereas Unemployment Claims increased. Durable Goods Orders decreased in January by 1%, which appeared to be less than expected decrease by 1.7% .The decrease was mainly caused by aircraft orders reduction. Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation increased by 1.1% against the expectations of decrease and demonstrated the highest growth since May, 2013.
The US Initial Claims increased last week by 14 000 to 348 000 from downwards revised 334 000, which appeared to be worse than expected 335 000. Unemployment Claims appeared to be the highest for the last 4 weeks. Four-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims remained flat – 338 250. Poor weather conditions in the USA weakened the recovery process of Labor Market and Housing Market, which will probably slow down economy growth rate during the first month of this year.
The yen and the Swiss franc were in demand on Thursday as save heaven currencies amid aggravation of tension in Ukraine, which also lead to the euro sales. The Swiss franc increased Vs. The euro to the highest rate since April, 2013; it ignored weak GDP and Employment Level data in Switzerland. Swiss economy growth in the 4th quarter slowed down to 0.2% q/q from 0.5% in the previous quarter, against the expectations of growth by 0.4%, which was caused by export decrease by 1.7% q/q. Employment rate dropped in the 4th quarter to 4.19 million from 4.20 million in the 3rd quarter, whereas growth to 4.22 million was predicted.
The euro decreased in the first half of the day amid controversial statistics, but then it increased. German Inflation data appeared to be worse than expected, which especially essential before the Eurozone Inflation data release on Friday. Annual inflation rate in Germany slowed down in February to 1.2% from 1.3% in January, whereas no changes were predicted. Consumer Confidence in France decreased as well.
At the same time, German Labor Market and Eurozone Economic Confidence data appeared to be better than expected. Unemployment Change in Germany decreased in February by 10 000. German Unemployment Change stays at 6.8% level, which is close to 2 decades low, for the third month in a row. Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator increased in February to 101.2 p. (the highest rate since July, 2011) from 101 p. in January, against the decrease expectations. Confidence indices, except Consumer Confidence Index, increased.
The New Zealand dollar strengthened its positions amid positive Trade Balance data in New Zealand. Trade Balance proficit in January increased to 306 million of New Zealand dollars, which appeared to be better that the predicted 230 million. Fonterra, the largest world milk products exporter, stated the increase of payments to farmers-shareholders, and this fact also supported NZD growth.
The Australian dollar dropped on Thursday after weak Investment data in Australia, but then it gained all the losses. Private Capital Expenditure in Australia reduced in the 4th quarter by 5.2% q/q, whereas decrease by only 1% was predicted. The drop was the most considerable for almost 5 years.
By MasterForex Company