*Daily Forex market overviews by MasterForex.com* - page 57
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 21/01/2014
The Euro Increased Before the Release of ZEW Report
On 20 January on Monday the US dollar was traded slightly downwards vs. most major currencies amid low trading volume. The U.S. Markets were closed due to the celebration of Martin Luther King Day. The dollar continued the tendency decreasing for seven days in a row already. The euro increased before the Tuesday release of German ZEW Survey.
The euro reached 8-weeks low vs. the dollar at the beginning of Monday, but then strengthened its position before the release of German ZEW Economic Sentiment on Tuesday which is expected to demonstrate growth to new 8-year highs. German Production Inflation appeared to be slightly better than expected.
Producer Price Index increased in December for the first time for 5 months – by 0,1% in relation to previous month, whereas changes were not expected. Industrial Orders in Italy increased in November by 2,3% m/m against the growth expectations by 0,3%. Italian Industrial Sales rose in November by 0,9% after decrease by 0,7% in the previous month.
On Monday the pound was traded upwards. According to Sky News International Monetary Fund plans to revise the UK economic growth forecast earlier than for any other large economy. The Fund may increase the economic growth forecast of 2014 from 1,9% to 2,4%. Meanwhile Rightmove House Price Index in the UK increased in January after 2-month decrease which appeared to be highest in history price growth in January.
The yen strengthened its position amid drop of Asian Stock Markets due to the weakening of Chinese economic growth data – Nikkei 225 dropped by 0,6%. Industrial Production and Investment into Capital Funds data in December also appeared to be worse than expected. Growth rate of the second largest world economy in the 4th quarter decreased to 1,8% q/q from 2,2% q/q in the 3rd quarter, whereas decrease to 2% only was expected. In 2013 GDP of China increased by 7,7% which coincided with 2012 growth rate which was the worst since 1999.
Deceleration in the 4th quarter was mainly induced by investment growth slowdown. Investment into Capital Funds in 2013 increased by 19,6% against the growth expectations by 19,8%. Industrial Production increased in December by 9,7% in an annual rate comparing with the growth by 10% in an annual rate - whereas growth by 9,8% in an annual rate was expected.
The Australian dollar had almost no reaction to the Chinese GDP data, and according to the results of the day it has slightly strengthened its positions after 4-days decrease. TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Inflation suddenly demonstrated high Consumer Price growth in December – by 0,7% m/m (the highest growth rate almost for 4 years). Inflation growth in Australia may force the Reserve Bank of Australia to save the rate unchanged. UBS forecasts AUDUSD decrease to 0,86 during 3 nearest months.
The New Zealand dollar decreased at the beginning of the day after announce of the earthquake at the Northern Island of New Zealand, but then won back all the losses - the actual damage after the earthquake appeared to be minor. Meanwhile, REINZ House Price Index dropped in December by 1% m/m – decrease occurred for the first time for the last 5 months. House Sales decreased in December by 1,1% in an annual rate, after decrease by 6,6% in an annual rate in the previous month.
NZD rocketed after the strong Inflation report. Consumer Price Index increased in the 4th quarter by 0,1% toward the previous quarter, whereas decrease by 0,1% was expected. In an annual rate inflation strengthened its position by 1,6% having exceeded the growth expectations by 1,5%.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 23/01/2014
The UK Unemployment Rate Dropped to Almost 5-years Low
On Wednesday the US dollar increased vs. the Canadian dollar and the yen amid finished meetings of the Bank of Canada and Japan – but decreased vs. the pound and the Australian dollar. The pound rocketed after positive Labour Market report release, and approached to the highs of the beginning of the year. The Australian dollar strengthened its position after the Inflation Report release in Australia for the 4th quarter which has exceeded the expectations.
The dollar increased inconsiderable vs. the rest major currencies, having strengthened its position by 0.1% according to the dollar index. For the second day in a row there were no significant macrostatistic data in the USA on Wednesday. Therefore a lot of statistic data is expected to be released on Thursday – Unemployment Rate, Existing Home Sales, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and FHFA House Price Index.
The pound rocketed after positive Labour Market Report release, having approached to 3-weeks highs of the beginning of the year. ILO Unemployment Rate dropped in September-November by 0.3% to 7.1% - the lowest rate for almost 5 years since February 2009. Decrease to only 7.3% was expected. Claimant Count Change in December decreased a little less than it was expected - to 24 000 instead of 32 000.
Unemployment Rate approached to target rate of the Bank of England, after that it may consider the matter of interest rate increase. The decrease of Unemployment Rate to 7% was expected not earlier than in the second half of 2015. Nonetheless in the last released minutes of the BOE it was stated that there is no necessity to increase interest rates even if the Unemployment Rate reaches 7% in the nearest future.
The yen weakened amid 2-days meeting of the BOJ, during which the course of the monetary policy was saved at the same level as it was expected. BOJ left economy estimation unchanged for the 5th month in a row. BOJ Governor Kuroda announced that current monetary policy will be the same if there are no upward or downward risks for the economy. Fewer experts suppose the Central Bank will agree to QE in 2014 as the inflation gathers pace.
The Australian dollar strengthened its position after release of the Australian Inflation Rate which exceeded the expectations. Consumer Price Index increased in the 4th quarter by 0.8% having twice exceeded the growth expectations by 0.4%. In an annual rate inflation increased by 2.7% against the forecast of +2.4%, which appeared to be the highest for the last 2 years. The data lower the possibility of further decrease of the rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Meanwhile Westpac Consumer Confidence decreased in January for the second month in a row – the index dropped by 1.7% to 103.3 p. – the lowest for the last six months.
The Canadian dollar sharply fell after the BOC Rate Statement during which the interest rate was left at the same level, but the final announcement in which the Central Bank highlighted the downwards inflation risks was considered as a milder one. At the press-conference the BOC Governor Poloz announced the Canadian dollar is still a problem for exporters, and weakness of the Canadian dollar is advantageous for the economy. In the quarterly BOC Monetary Policy Report the Canadian currency was mentioned to stay strong, and this fact complicates non- recourse Canadian export.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 24/01/2014
Manufacturing PMI in China Dropped to Half-Year Low
On Thursday the US dollar decreased vs. most major currencies amid negative macrostatistics data in the USA. The euro increased amid the growth of Manufacturing PMI in France, Germany, and Eurozone. The Australian dollar dropped after release of Manufacturing PMI decrease data in China.
On Thursday the US dollar demonstrated a sharp drop for the last 3 months, and reached 3-weeks low according to the dollar index. Negative data in China, which caused a strong decrease of Stock Markets, inflicted the USA data bearing mostly negative character as well. The driver of the dollar weakening was increasing yen – futures at Nikkei dropped by more than 3%.
Initial Unemployment Claims in the USA last week appeared to be slightly better than expected (330 000), and increased by 1 000 to 326 000. Chicago federal National Activity Index dropped in December to +0.16 from +0.69 in November against the expectations of growth. Preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI decreased in January to 3-months low of 53.7 p. from 54.4 p. in December, whereas growth to 55 p. was expected.
FHFA House Price Index in November demonstrated the lowest rates of addition for 15 months, +0.1% - against the expectations of growth by 0.4%. Annualized Existing Home Sales increased less than it was expected, to 4.81 m of houses – whereas sales at the level of 4.93 m were forecasted before. CB Leading Index strengthened its positions in December only by 0.1% against the expectations of growth by 0.2%.
The euro sharply increased after the release of positive Purchasing Manager Index in France, Germany, and the Eurozone. All preliminary PMI’s increased in January, and almost all of them appeared to be better than expected. Manufacturing and Services PMI in France in January reached 3-months high; in Germany – 32- and 2-months high, and in the Eurozone – 32- and 4-months high. Eurozone Flash PMI Composite increased to 31-months high of 53.2 p. from 52.1 p. in December.
The Swiss franc demonstrated the greatest increase on Thursday, it was due to Swiss National Bank proposal to increase the countercyclical capital buffer, which they must have for insurance against risks in the Housing Market – it may lead to repatriation of capital for appropriation. The pound was traded upwards and closed higher than 1.66 vs. the dollar for the first time since the beginning of May 2011.
The Australian dollar dropped and refreshed the annual low after the release of Manufacturing PMI decrease data in China. Preliminary HSBC Manufacturing PMI suddenly dropped in January to half-year low of 49.6 p. from 50.5 p. in December. The Index decreased lower than 50, and this fact points activity decay for the first time for 6 months.
The Canadian dollar continued decrease, having dropped on Thursday to new 4-year low, but then it gained back all the losses – after release of Retail Sales in Canada which appeared to be slightly better than expected. Retail Sales increased in November by 0.6% m/m, having exceeded the expectations of growth by 0.2%. Core Retail Sales increased by 0.4% m/m which appeared to be slightly better than forecasted +0.3%.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 27/01/2014
Main Events of the Coming Week
On Friday the US dollar was traded mixed amid the absence of any statistics in the USA, and it almost had no changes according to the dollar index. The US dollar decreased vs. the yen, the Swiss franc, and the Canadian dollar, but increased vs. the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the pound, and the euro.
The yen continued its growth on Friday for the second day in a row amid the fall of Stock markets, which strengthened after the release of negative data in China. Nikkei 225 Futures dropped by 5% during the week –it was the highest weekly decrease since May 2013. American DJIA decreased by 3.5% during the week – it was the worst weekly result since November 2011. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is often called the index of fear – has rocketed on Friday almost by 30% till the highest level since the middle of October.
The pound dropped after the BOE’s Governor Carney announced that the new Interest Rates Guidance will be updated in February in relation with Unemployment which has fallen faster than expected. The economy will have to work its long way before the rates will be increased, he added.
The Canadian dollar a bit strengthened its position on Friday before the release of Inflation rate data in Canada which in whole coincided with the expectations. The rate of annual inflation in Canada decreased in December to 1.2% from 0.9% in the previous month, but it was still lower than the BOC target rate of 2%.
On Friday the Australian dollar dropped lower than $0.87 for the first time since July 2010 amid the comments of the RBA’s Board Member Heather Ridout about the forecast of the Australian dollar’s drop even lower in order to support the economy recuperation. To her opinion, fair AUD standard for exporters and importers will be $0.80.
According to the results of the week the USA also demonstrated mixed dynamics having lost 1% according to the dollar index. Dollar increase vs. commodity currencies: the Canadian dollar (+1.15%), the Australian dollar (+1.13%), and the New Zealand dollar (+0.51%); but decrease vs. the yen (-1.94%), and the European currencies: the Swiss franc (-1.69%), the euro (-0.99%), and the pound (-0.33%).
The main event of the coming week will be the FOMC meeting on 28-29 January, the results of which will be announced on Wednesday. The January meeting will be the last for Ben Bernanke – on 31 January he will resign, and on 1 February Janet Yellen will follow him. The majority of analysts interrogated by Bloomberg expect that Fed will assets purchase by $10 и to $65 и per month, and will continue QE3 Tapering at the same pace during the future meetings. Weak Non-Farm Payrolls data in December was probably caused by weather anomaly.
During the last week of the month in the USA New Home Sales will be released on Monday; on Tuesday – Durable Goods Orders, S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 HPI, and CB Consumer Confidence; on Thursday - Advance GDP for the 4th quarter, and Pending Home Sales; and on Friday - Personal Income & Personal Spending, Chicago PMI, and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment.
The main event in the Eurozone will be the German IFO - Business Climate release on Monday, and on Friday - Eurozone CPI Estimate. IFO Index and Inflation growth are expected. On Thursday Euro-Zone Confidence Indices from European Commission will be released; and on Friday – Unemployment Rate. On Wednesday German GfK Consumer Confidence will be released; on Thursday – Reports on Labour Market and Inflation; and on Friday – Retail Sales.
The main event in the UK will be the Tuesday release of Preliminary GDP for the 4th quarter. It is expected that the economy growth rate a bit weakened in the 4th quarter – to 0.7% q/q comparing to 0.8% in the 3rd quarter. BOE’s Governor Carney will perform on Wednesday. In Japan on Thursday Retail Sales report will be released; and on Friday – a big block of statistics of the end of the month: inflation, unemployment, industrial production.
In Australia on Tuesday NAB Business Confidence will be released, on Thursday – Quarterly Import Prices report; and on Friday – Quarterly Producer Price Index. On Thursday RBNZ Interest Rate Decision will be announced; on Friday Trade Balance data will be released, and RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler will perform. There will be GDP data in Canada on Friday as well.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 28/01/2014
German Business Climate Reached 2,5-years High
On 27 January on Monday the US dollar was traded mixed before the beginning of the 2-days FOMC meeting on Tuesday, and almost didn’t change according to the dollar index. The US dollar decreased vs. the pound sterling and the Australian dollar, and a bit increased vs. the yen, the Swiss franc, and the Canadian dollar. According to the results of the day the euro had almost no changes amid the growth of the German Ifo Business Climate.
Trading of the first day of the week underwent staid, and the participants abstained from active actions before the important events which will take place this week. Few statistical data of Monday didn’t significantly influence the trading process. The US New Home Sales appeared to be considerably worse than it was forecasted, whereas manufacturing index appeared to be better.
The US New Home Sales in December dropped by 7% comparing with the previous month – to 414 000 of new houses in an annual rate, whereas the reading was forecasted to be at the level of 455 000. Home Sales decrease for the second month in a row from the 5-years highs being reached in autumn. Anomalously cold weather could influence the decrease of sales activity.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity in January increased to 3.8 against 3.7 in December, whereas the decrease was expected. Markit Flash Services PMI strengthened its position in January to 56.6 p. from 55.7 p., having exceeded the expectations of growth to 56.2 p.
The euro had almost no changes according to the results of the day amid the improvement of the Business Climate in Germany. According to the Ifo Institute for Economic Research, German IFO - Business Climate increased in January to the highest rate since July 2011 of 110.6 p. from 109.5 p. in December, having exceeded the expectations of growth to 110 p. German IFO - Current Assessment increased to 112.4 p. (the highest since June 2012), comparing with 111.6 p. in December which coincided with the forecast. German IFO - Expectations strengthened its positions more than expected (108 p.) – to 108.9 p. from 107.4 p.
According to January German Bundesbank Monthly Report released on Monday – the German production sector gathers pace, and the Central Bank expects the GDP growth rate increase in the 1st quarter of 2014. Meanwhile, Governor of the Bank of Italy and the ECB Governing Council Member, Ignazio Visco, indicated that the central bank could cut its key interest rates further and engage in asset purchases, provided the outlook of the region deteriorates. According to the forecasts of a series of Banks, ECB may cut the interest rates in the nearest future due to the record high Unemployment rate and Credit decrease.
On Monday the yen slightly decreased after 2-days growth amid the weak Trade Balance data in Japan. Trade Balance Deficit in December was 1.30 trillion yen against the forecast of 1.22 trillion. During 2013 the Trade Balance Deficit increased almost twice comparing with 2012 to 11.5 trillion, which is mainly due to the import growth of energy supplies and the weakness of the yen.
The pound sterling gained back more than a half of the Friday losses before the Tuesday release of the Preliminary GDP data in the UK for the 4th quarter. The Canadian dollar went on decreasing, it was partly due to the speech of the Minister of Finance of Canada who announced that the weakness of the Canadian dollar is induced by the comparatively positive situation in the USA; he also mentioned the deflationary risk for the Canadian economy.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 30/01/2014
Fed Continued Tapering of QE3
On 29 January on Wednesday the US dollar dropped vs. the yen and the Swiss franc; increased vs. the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar; and had almost no changes vs. the euro, the pound sterling and to the dollar index – amid the FOMC decision about QE3 Tapering, which coincided with the expectations. The yen increased amid the decrease of stock markets. The New Zealand dollar dropped after the announcement of the meeting’s results of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
The US dollar had almost no reaction to the Fed decision which in whole coincided with the expectations. FOMC saved the base interest rate without changes and reduced bond purchases since February by $10 и per month to $65 b. FOMC voted was unanimous for the first time since June 2011. FOMC prudently continued tapering bond purchases during further meetings. FOMC upgraded assessment of economy’s performance and announced that economy has picked up in recent quarters.
Easing of the economic situation and labor market becomes visible. Economy and labor market prospects’ risks became more balanced. Household spending, business investment advanced “more quickly”. At the same time labor market indicators are mixed, though they demonstrate further improvement. In whole FOMC announcement suffered little changes comparing with the previous month. FOMC did not mention recent spottiness of developing markets.
The pound sterling is still supported by good data of the UK statistics, on Wednesday it was the House market data. Nationwide House Prices exceeded the expectations (+8.5% y/y) and demonstrated the fastest annual growth rate since May 2010, +8.8%. House Prices are supported by considerable growth of employment sector, record low mortgage rate, and confidence growth.
The euro has almost no changes according to the results of the day as well amid German GfK Consumer Confidence growth to 6.5-years high. Out run German Gfk Consumer Confidence increased in February to the highest rate since August 2007 – 8.2 p. against 7.7 p. in January – and exceeded the expectations at the level of 7.6 p. The growth was due to the optimism about the economy state and steady German Labor Market.
The yen reached its high since 6 December of the previous year amid the stock markets decrease, which led to safe assets demand decrease. Futures at Nikkei 225 dropped on Wednesday by 1.5%. The Swiss franc also strengthened its positions amid the consumption growth in Switzerland. The UBS consumption indicator jumped to 1.81 index points in December from 1.40. Although the rise was apparent across all sub-indicators, the significant increase was chiefly due to the strong performance of new car registrations and high levels of confidence among retailers.
The New Zealand dollar dropped after the Reserve Bank of NZ kept cash rate unchanged – though the probability of increase in rates was estimated from 30% to 50%. Besides, RBNZ’s Wheeler announced that current high exchange rate is not sustainable in long run. However, Wheeler is expected to start rate adjustment soon, which speaks for high probability of the increase during the nearest meetings. Interest rates need to return to more normal levels, but scale and speed of rises depend on economic indicators that will be released further – Wheeler added.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 01/02/2014
The Main Events of the Week
On 31 January the US dollar was traded upwards vs. most major currencies amid the positive US macrostatistic data. The euro dropped amid weak inflation rate data and Retail Sales in the Eurozone. The yen continued to strengthen its positions after the release of the inflation rate report in Japan.
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment in January composed 81.2 p., and appeared to be higher than the initial estimate of 80.4. The index slightly fell from the December high for 6 months at the level of 82.5 p., but it still stays at adequate high level. Chicago PMI decreased in January less than it was expected, to 59.6 p. from the upwards revised December reading of 60.8p., whereas falling to 59 p. was expected.
Personal Spending increased in December more than it was expected (+0.2%), by 0.4% m/m – however personal income had no changes, whereas the growth by 0.2% was expected. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Richard Fisher announced that it was time to make adjustments to threshold unemployment rate of 6.5% which will be probably reached rather early if taking into consideration strong indication of economy recuperation.
The euro dropped amid the weak Eurozone inflation rate and German Retail Sales data. Annual inflation rate in the Eurozone in January slacked again to 0.7% as in October – from 0.8% in December, whereas the growth to 0.9% was expected. This is the lowest inflation rate since November 2009. Retail Sales in Germany in December dropped by 2.5% m/m against the growth expectations. The euro was negatively influenced by the announce that Bundesbank would favor the ending ECB’s weekly draining of funds from banking system – such sterilization of government bonds investment in fact prevented from direct QE.
The yen continued to strengthen its positions on Friday after the release of inflation rate data in Japan, which demonstrated the highest augmentation since October 2008. Annual inflation growth rate in December composed 1.6% having exceeded the expectations at the level of 1.5%. Inflation precipitation may push the Bank of Japan to less aggressive actions of economy priming, which is auspicious for the yen. Futures at Nikkei dropped on Friday by more than 3%.
According to the results of the week the US dollar added 1.03% according to the dollar index and increased vs. all major currencies, except for the Australian dollar (-0.85%) and the yen (-0.33%). Most of all the US dollar increased vs. ТЯВ (+1,52%), EUR (+1.39%), and CHF (-1.29), and a little bit less vs. CAD (+0.34%) and GBP (+0.25%). According to the results of January the US dollar increased by 1.37% according to the dollar index, having strengthened its positions vs. all major currencies, except for the yen (-3.20%). Most of all the US dollar increased vs. the Canadian dollar (+4.48%). And a little bit less vs. EUR (+2.20%), AUD (+1.94%), CHF (+1.92%), NZD (+1.80%), and GBP (+0.78%). The main weekly and monthly increase occurred during the last two days of January. The US dollar was supported by the decision of QE3 Tapering continuation adopted at the January Meeting of FOMC.
The first week of the month will be rich with events as usual. Three ECBs Meetings (on Tuesday – the Reserve Bank of Australia, on Thursday – the Reserve Bank of England and the European Reserve Bank), PMI data, Retail Sales, Trade Balance, Labor Market data will be released. The main events of the week will be the US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday; ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is going to be released on Wednesday. Besides, the most important ISM PMIs will be released: ISM Manufacturing PMI – on Monday, and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – on Wednesday. On Tuesday Factory Orders will be released, and on Thursday – Trade Balance.
On Monday in the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI will be released, and on Wednesday – Non-Manufacturing PMI; on Tuesday – Producer Price Index; and on Wednesday – Retail Sales. On Thursday the monthly ECB’s meeting will take place, no policy changes are expected. The analysts expect the reduction of rates in March or in the second quarter of the year. On Thursday in Germany Factory Orders will be released, and on Friday – Trade Balance and Industrial Production.
During the first three days of the week in the UK industry, housebulding and Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released. On Friday Manufacturing PMI and Trade Balance will be released. The Bank of England is getting ready to release new interest rate target in February, and it may happen on Thursday when the BOE Rate Decision will be announced.
On Thursday in Australia Retail Sales and Trade Balance will be released, and on Friday – the Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement. The RBA Meeting will traditionally take place on the first Tuesday of the month, and the policy changes are not expected. The Quarterly Labor Market Report in New Zealand will be released on Wednesday. On Thursday in Canada Trade Balance and Ivey PMI will be published; and on Friday – Labor Market Report.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 04/02/2014
Activity in the US Manufacturing Sector Decreased
On Monday 3 February the US dollar dropped vs. most major currencies after the release of weak ISM Manufacturing PMI report in the USA. The euro strengthened its positions amid the manufacturing activity growth in the Eurozone, and the pound sterling considerably decreased after the release of the similar Markit PMI report. The yen increased amid continuing fall of stock markets.
ISM Manufacturing PMI in the USA suddenly appeared to be weak – activity dropped to the lowest level since June 2013. ISM Manufacturing PMI in the USA suddenly dropped in January by 5.2 p. to 51.3 p. from the downwards revised 56.5 p. in December, whereas slight drop to 56 p. was expected. Non-Manufacturing PMI also decreased a month ago to half-year low.
All the subindices except for prices and supplier deliveries decreased. New Orders dropped most of all. Remarkable decrease demonstrated Production, Employment, and Inventories. Manufacturing PMI decrease might be affected by poor weather conditions in January. On Monday treasury secretary Jack Lew appealed to the congress to extend the government’s borrowing limit, warning that the country will be unable to meet its debt obligations at some point very soon, possibly by the end of the month.
The euro strengthened its positions after two-day decrease amid the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI growth which is still at high levels since May 2011. The Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI increased in January to 54 p. from 52.7 p. in December, and appeared to be slightly better than preliminary estimations at the level of 53.9 p. Manufacturing PMI increased in January in all major countries, except for Italy – in Germany it reached 32-months high.
The pound sterling on the contrary demonstrated considerable fall to 1.5-month low vs. the dollar – after the release of the similar Markit report. Manufacturing PMI in the UK decreased in January to 3-months low of 56.7 p. from 57.2 p. in December – whereas less decrease to 57 p. was expected. Despite the decrease for the second month in a row from the highest readings for almost three years, the Index is still at high rate, which exceeds the average reading of 51.3 p.
The yen increased almost to 2.5-months high vs. the dollar amid the continuing fall of stock markets. The US stock markets dropped on Monday by more than 2%, amid the concerns about Manufacturing Activity decrease in the USA and China. Nikkei Futures again decreased on Monday by more than 3% after the same decrease on Friday. The Swiss franc also strengthened its positions amid thу demand pull for safety assets. SVME PMI in Switzerland increased in January to 56.1 p. having exceeded the expectations at the level of 55.4 p.
The Australian dollar was traded upwards in the first half of the day before the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday – but according to the results of the day it had almost no changes amid the weak data in Australia and the fall of Manufacturing PMI in China. Building Permits in Australia dropped by 2.9% m/m, having considerably exceeded the expectations. Building Permits are being decreased for the third month in a row. The official Manufacturing PMI in China, which was released on Saturday, demonstrated the decrease in January to 50.5 p. from 51 p. Non-Manufacturing PMI as dropped as well.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 05/02/2014
The Australian Dollar Demonstrated the Highest Growth for More than 2 Years
On Tuesday February, 4 the US dollar was traded mixed amid the controversial statistics in the USA. The US dollar increased vs. the yen and the Swiss franc, but considerably decreased vs. AUD and NZD. The Australian dollar sharply increased after the Reserve Bank of Australia didn’t signal the inclination of monetary policy easing. The pound sterling strengthened its positions amid the growth of Manufacturing PMI of the construction sector in the UK.
Factory Orders in the USA decreased in December by 1.5% which appeared to be slightly better than expected by 1.8%. The decrease of orders was entailed by the sharp fall of orders Ex transportation which increased by 0.2%. IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism decreased in February to 44.9 p comparing with 45.2 p. in January against the expectations of growth.
President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Jeffrey Lacker announced on Tuesday that Fed will probably reduce acquisition costs by $10B at every meeting because significant improvement of the Labor Market reading is observed. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Charles Evans pointed that the US economy will be in need of strong support of the Fed for quite a long time, and the rates will be hardly increased till 2015.
The Australian dollar sharply increased and demonstrated the highest day growth vs. the dollar for the last two years since October 2011 – after the RBA left the rate unchanged, but announced that taking into consideration current circumstances, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates. The familiar statement about the disadvantageous high currency level was not mentioned in the announcement. This announcement was estimated as rejection of further monetary policy easing.
The New Zealand dollar also considerably strengthened its positions on Tuesday before the quarterly Labor Market report in New Zealand. Employment Change in New Zealand in the 4th quarter of 2013 increased by 1.1% in relation to the previous quarter, having exceeded the expectations of growth by 0.6%. Unemployment Rate in the 4th quarter decreased to 6% comparing with 6.2% in the 3rd quarter as it was expected. Unemployment Rate appeared to be the lowest for almost 5 years since the 1st quarter of 2009.
The pound sterling slightly increased after several-days fall amid the Manufacturing PMI of the construction sector report release in the UK. The PMI increased in January to 64.6 p. comparing with 62.1 p. in December, whereas the decrease was expected. The PMI is still at high rates since August 2007, and it stays higher than 50 p. for the 9th month in a row – this reading separates the expansion of the construction sector from reduce.
The euro was traded slightly downwards vs. the dollar amid the Spanish Labor Market data. Spanish Unemployment Change increased in January by 113 100 comparing with the previous month mostly due to dismissals in the non-manufacturing sector of the country. Producer Prices in the Eurozone increased in December by 0.2% m/m having fixed the 1st monthly growth for the last three months.
The yen broke the 2-days growth and decreased on Monday amid some stabilization of stock markets. The US Stock Markets have recuperated a bit on Tuesday after thу strong fall of the previous day. Nikkei Futures also strengthened. Some analysts consider that the Bank of Japan will not allow Nikkei 225 fall lower than 14000p., and may increase Japanese ETF purchase. Annual Monetary Bas growth rate in Japan in January was the second in history – 51.9% y/y.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 06/02/2014
The US Employment Growth Became the Lowest for the Recent Five Months
On Wednesday February, 5 the US dollar a bit decreased vs. the euro and the yen, and had almost no changes vs. the rest major currencies – amid controversial US statistic data. The euro a bit strengthened its positions amid the Non-Manufacturing PMI growth in the Eurozone. The pound sterling a bit decreased after the weak Index of Services release in the UK, but then negated almost all the losses.
Non-Manufacturing PMI in the USA increased to 3-months high, whereas ADP Labor Market appeared to be worse than expected – Non-Farm Employment Change in the USA dropped to 5-months low. According to Automatic Data Processing (ADP), Non-Farm Employment Change increased in January by 175 000 against the downwards revised 227 000 in December, which appeared to be lower than expected at the level of 185 000.
Employment Change is being reduced for the second month in a row, and its January augmentation became the lowest for the recent 5 months. Severe and windy weather still puts pressure on Employment Change data. ADP is frequently considered as preliminary before the most important Non-Farm Payrolls report of the USA Department of Labor.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the USA increased in January to 54 p. comparing with 53 p. in December, having exceeded the expectations of growth to 53.7 p. All the subindices except Import and New Export Orders increased. At the same time the largest growth was demonstrated by Inventory components, Inventory Sentiment, and Prices. FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart announced on Wednesday that QE Tapering will be probably continued and may finish till the 4th quarter. Oncoming before the publication data may be weak due to weather conditions.
The euro a bit strengthened its positions on Wednesday amid the Eurozone Non-Manufacturing growth, which appeared to be the highest for the recent 4 months. The Final Eurozone Non-Manufacturing PMI increased in January to 51.6 p. from 51 p. in December, though it appeared to be slightly less than the preliminary estimation of 51.9 p. Services PMI in January increased in all major countries except Germany.
The composite index measuring business activity of Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing sectors increased in January to the highest rate since June 2011 – to 52.9 p. against 52.1 p. of the previous month. At the same time Retail Sales in the Eurozone dropped in December by 1.6% against the expectation of decrease by 0.7% which appeared to be the most considerable fall since May 2011. Previously released data in Germany also pointed out the decrease of Retail Sales in December by 2.5%.
The pound sterling decreased after weak Services PMI data release in the UK, which appeared to be the lowest over the last 8 months, but then gained back almost all the losses. Non-Manufacturing PMI which composed the major economy part decreased in January to 58.3 p. from 58.8 p. in December, against the expectations of growth. The Index has been decreasing for the third month in a row, though it stays above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.
The Canadian dollar decreased after weak Building Permits data, but then it won back all the losses. The Australian dollar had almost no changes according to the results of the day after the strong growth of the previous day. RBA Board Member John Edwards announced on Wednesday that the drop of the Australian dollar is probably not final, though it may cause the inflation pressure increase. Gradual fall of AUD is more positive for the economy.
By MasterForex Company