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Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 06/05/2013
The main events of the week
This week there won’t be a lot of important macroeconomic indicators. Market participants "digest" the results of the meeting of the two most important central banks of the world: the Federal Reserve and the ECB, as well as key data from the U.S. labor market, released on Friday.
These data turned out a little higher than it was expected. According to the Ministry of Labor the number of jobs in the U.S. economy in the past month increased by 165 thousand, with expectations of 145-150 thousand. The unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 7.5% - the lowest unemployment rate since December 2008.
But a more important factor was a significant upward revision of the data for the previous two months - a total of 114thousand. In March up to 138 thousand instead of 88thousand, and in February - up to 332 thousand instead of 268 thousand previously reported. Revised February's value is the strongest since May 2010.
The stock market reacted definitely with growth to the published data. The DJIA index for the first time in history has overcome the level of 15000. But there was no definite dynamic at the currency exchange market. At first the dollar rose under the influence of strong stats. But then it fell influenced by rising stock assets and its inclination to risk. The correlation of the dollar growth and stock assets that was observed lately seems to start breaking.
Traditionally, in the second week of the month data on industrial production and trade balance will be released. Data on industrial production will be presented by France on Tuesday, by Germany - on Wednesday, by Britain - on Thursday and by Italy - on Friday. Industrial orders will be released in Germany on Tuesday.
Industrial production and industrial orders are expected to decrease in Germany in March, which highlights the difficulties faced by the euro zone's largest economy. And the UK industrial production can grow and the trade deficit can shrink in March.
Trading balance will be published on Tuesday by Australia and France, on Wednesday – by China and on Thursday – by Germany and Great Britain. Retail sales will be released on Monday in Australia and euro zone.
On Tuesday and Thursday meetings of central banks of Australia and Great Britain will be held. Also Australia, New Zealand and Canada will release its data of Labor market. At the end of the week on Friday and Saturday Great Britain will hold another G7 summit.
The bond market neither has many events that could have an impact on the currency market. On Thursday Spain will issue 10-year bonds. Bonds issue of southern Europe countries has become particularly relevant at the time of the European debt crisis.
But the main event will be a traditional for the second month’s week issue of long-term US bonds from Tuesday to Thursday. In theory, it can lead to the dollar’s rise and fall of stock and commodity assets and so have an indirect effect on currency markets.
6-May (time UTC)
08:00 Netherlands place 84-day and 205-day bills
12:50 France places bills
7-May
09:00 Austria issues 1.95% 2019 1.75% 2023 bonds
17:00 the USA issue 3-years notes
8-May
09:30 Germany issues EUR5 billion 2018 bonds
17:00 the USA issue 10-years notes
9-May
08:30 Spain issues 10-years notes
17:00 the USA issue 30-years bonds
10-May
09:00 Italy issues bills
10:00 ECB announces the amount of the return on a 3-year LTRO loans
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 07/05/2013
Euro reacted with a sharp fall to Draghi’s speech
Euro fell below support level of 1.31 on Monday during ECB head Mario Draghi’s speech when he said that the central bank would make a thorough examine of economic data of eurozone and it was also ready for further actions if required. In fact Draghi said that in future there may be further measures of easing monetary police.
“There are a lot of possible complications and consequences which need a thorough exam. The governing council decided to study and analyze these consequences to take measures in case of necessity” –said the head of ECB.
The statistical data released during the European session turned out to be mixed. Retail sales data in the eurozone showed a decline in sales for the 14th month in a row in the annual quantities. The data also turned out to be worse than expected and sales fell by 2.4%, with the forecast of decrease by 2.2%.
However the final PMI index for the service sector of European countries and eurozone turned out a little better than expected. So, the final index of business activity in the service sector of eurozone was 47.0 in April while the forecast was 46.6. But the indexes are still below the level of 50 points which indicates a further decrease of activity in the service sector.
The labor market in Spain shows some signs of improvement. The number of unemployed decreased by 46.1 thousand in April or 0.91% in comparison with the previous month and fell below the level of 5 million, which indicates that the recession in the crisis economy shows signs of weakening.
Statistical Office of Italy (Istat) lowered its economic forecast on Monday for 2013 due to reduction in domestic demand. According to the forecast in 2013 economy can decrease by 1.4% in real terms against earlier forecasts of 0.5%.
On Monday the U.S. dollar rose a little against almost all currencies continuing to win back the labor market strong data that were released at the end of last week.
The Australian dollar fell on Monday after retail sales weak data. The retail sales volume in Australia fell by 0.4% in March while growth by 0.1% was expected. Decrease of retail sales turned out the first within the last three months.
Also it was announced on Monday that the treasury of Australia decreased the forecast of GDP growth for the current and next financial years. Morgan Stanley recommends selling AUD due to the disappointing situation in China while the USA data start to show signs of improvement.
However the Canadian dollar managed to resist the general trend and rose a little on Monday after the release of strong data on building permits in Canada.
The number of building permits in Canada rose by 8.6% in comparison with February.
This is the largest growth rate for the last 5 months. But the published data mainly concerned construction of non-residential premises. The growth of residential quarters construction continues to be slow.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 08/05/2013
Australia’s central bank lowered its key interest rate to its historic low
At a monthly meeting on Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its key interest rate from 3% to 2.75% - the lowest level in its more than 50-years history. The bank referred to a slowdown in the economy, absence of inflationary pressure and a high rate of national currency.
For the last months the situation at the Labor market of Australia has been getting worse – the number of job advertisements decreased in April for the second month in a row. The interest rate decrease was the seventh for the last 19 months. This decision became a surprise as almost no one from the analysts forecast it.
In the final statement the RBA marked that it would use the interest rate decrease to encourage a stable growth of economy in line with achieving the inflation target.
Besides, the central bank also expressed its concern about an “extraordinary” power of the local currency, which makes AUD higher of parity rate against the US dollar for a long time.
The AUD fell dramatically after that but it was supported by the data on trade balance. Trade surplus was is restored for the first time from December, 2011 up to 307 million of Australian dollars due to the growth of coal and iron ore exports.
The euro was rising in the first part of the day after strong data on production orders in Germany were released. But then fell sharply after the release of a disappointing report of IBD/TIPP on economic optimism in the USA.
Industrial orders in Germany rose by 2.2% in March while a fall by 0.4% was expected. The released figures show that the situation in the industrial sector of the largest economy of Europe is getting stable.
However not all data of eurozone turned out so bright. According to the data of French statistical agency Insee industrial production of France fell by 0.9% while a fall by 0.2% was expected. This decrease turned out to be the most dramatic since October, 2012. According to annual basis the figure fell by 2.5%. The economy of France is still under pressure due to the reduction of the national budget and a weak demand from eurozone.
Almost no data on the USA were released on Tuesday except IBD/TIPP report on economic optimism. In May economic optimism index fell by 2.4% to 45.1 from 46.1 in April. Index value higher than 50 indicates consumer sentiment index growth and lower than 50 – pessimism growth. At the moment the index is 2.1 points lower its average value for 12 months which is 47.2.
The pound lowered on Tuesday due to technical factors. The decrease was supported indirectly by the released data of British Retail Consortium (BRC) which showed that the index of retail prices fell by 0.8% in April. It rose only by 0.4% in annual basis in comparison with 1.4% last month.
By MasterForex Company
GBP/USD DAILY as of Thursday, 09 May, 2013
British Pound / US Dollar broke above the upside resistance level of 1.55 yesterday. This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 1.55 may now provide downside support.
A Daily white body has formed yesterday.
A Daily engulfing bullish line has formed (where a white candle's real body completely contains the previous black candle's real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.
If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with British Pound / US Dollar), it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle's real body.
The MACD is currently BULLISH. The MACD is currently above the signal line with the MACD crossing above the signal line 10 days ago. Since the MACD crossed the MACD moving average, British Pound / US Dollar's price has increased 0.69%, and has fluctuate from a high of 1.561 to a low of 1.527.
A Stochastic SELL signal was generated yesterday.Currently the Stochastic indicator is currently generating a SELL signal against the direction of the major trend.
SAR signal was a Sell 2 days ago.
The close is currently
BELOW its 200 daily moving average
ABOVE its 50 daily moving average
ABOVE its 20 daily moving average
The current market condition for British Pound / US Dollar is Mildly Bearish.
Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected an Isolated Low at 1.54one bar ago ; this is usually a bullish sign.
The present wave patterns are:
fast amplitude (8%): bullish wave 2
British Pound / US Dollar is long term Bearish as the 144 days moving average of 1.56 is decreasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 61.04 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 70.38 in the overbought territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at 0.01, in positive territory; this is a bullish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 43.90. This value is in the neutral territory.
Please note that all wave counts are based on the high low price in this commentary!
*** Intra-Daily Trading Strategy: BUY GBP/USD
Buy Target: 1.5587
Buy Stop: 1.5422
Enter BUY on OPEN and exit BUY at Target price or at Stop price.Do not reverse.
(This an intrady trading recommendation)
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 13/05/2013
The main events of this week
The end of the week showed that the dollar made an impressive growth against major world currencies. The largest drop was shown by the Australian dollar (-2.95%), followed by New Zealand Dollar (-2.65%), Japanese yen (-2.63%) and Swiss franc (-2.32%).
The growth trigger was the data on initial applications for unemployment benefits, which came out better than expected, and reached levels that were marked before the recession. These data reminded market participants about a key employment report in the U.S., published nearly a week ago, which dispelled some fears about the U.S. economy, which appeared recently due to the macrostatistics decline.
This week will be more intense in the coming out macro data than the last one. There will be data on retail sales (Monday - China, Switzerland and the USA, Tuesday - New Zealand), industrial production (Monday - China, Tuesday - Eurozone, Wednesday – USA) and GDP (Wednesday - Eurozone, Thursday - Japan) and quite a lot of stats on the USA.
The main event of the week for the eurozone will be the publication of preliminary data on GDP for the first quarter of this year of both individual countries and the whole eurozone, which will take place on Wednesday. The GDP reduction of the Eurozone and individual countries may not be as significant as observed in the last quarter of last year.
However, if the data turn out worse than expected, it may give an additional impulse to continue the decline of the euro, which was observed recently. Also markets will pay special attention to the ZEW economic expectations index for Germany coming on Tuesday. According to the forecast investors’ confidence has risen after the decline in April.
There are not a lot of data on Britain. On Wednesday a labor market report will be published. Also on the same day the Bank of England inflation report for the second quarter will be released. Along with the publication the head of the Bank of England Mervyn King will make a speech.
And there will be quite a lot of important data on the USA. Monday - retail sales. Inflation data: production inflation - on Wednesday and consumer inflation – on Thursday. Capital inflow data and industrial production – on Wednesday.
Construction permits and laying of new foundations; manufacturing index, the Philadelphia Fed - on Thursday. And a preliminary index of consumer sentiment in May from the University of Michigan will be released on Friday.
And of course, on Thursday there will be a release of weekly applications for benefits - data that have been gaining more and more weight recently.
The main placements of bonds of the eurozone’s countries (UTC time):
13-May
09:00 Italy places 3-years bonds
09:30 Germany places EUR4 bln 6-months bills
13:00 France places bills
14-May
08:00 Netherlands places up to € 2.5 bln 2018 bonds
08:45 Spain places 6 and 12-months bills
09:30 Belgium places bills
15-May
09:30 Portugal places 6 and 12-months bills
09:30 Germany places EUR5 bln 2015 bonds
16-May
09:00 France places I/L bonds/notes
17-May
08:00 Belgium places bonds
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 14/05/2013
Retail sales data supported the dollar
The dollar rose on Monday against almost all main currencies. It was supported by the U.S. retail sales data that turned out a little higher than expected and strengthened the optimism about the largest world’s economy.
According to the data of Department of Commerce retail sales rose unexpectedly by 0.1% in April while a drop by 0.3% was expected. In comparison with the last year sales grew by 3.7%. Base sales, except for auto sales, decreased only by 0.1% with an expectation of 0.2% growth.
Besides, the dollar was supported by speculations on rapid closing up of economic stimulus programme. Last week Wall Street Journal published an article according to which FED is considering the ways of QE-3 programme phase-down.
USD/JPY reached the level of 102 – the highest level since 2008 – after finance minister of Japan Taro Aso had declared that G7 didn’t criticize the monetary policy of Japan at the meeting that ended at the weekend. And probably G7 countries will continue to regard with favor the accommodative monetary policy of the Bank of Japan.
In China there was a release of mixed macroeconomic data which showed acceleration of retail sales growth rates and industrial production in April but growth rates of industrial production turned out a little lower that it was forecasted (9.3% of annual growth instead of expected 9.4%). Investment amount into main Chinese funds increased by 20.6% since January to April but it didn’t reach the expected figures of 21% growth.
The Australian dollar dropped on Monday due to the poll held by the National Bank of Australia which showed a business confidence decline in April in anticipation of the publication of the annual federal budget which will take place on Tuesday. The NAB business confidence index fell to 2 in April from 2 in March.
There were no any significant statistics in Europe but there was another meeting of eurogroup where also support packages for Cyprus and Spain were discussed. By the evening it had been announced that the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), stabilization fund of the European Union had allocated the first financial support tranche in the amount of 2 bln euros. Also the Eurogroup approved a support package for Greece in the amount of 7.5 bln euros.
On Monday Italy placed bonds with the total amount of 8 bln euros, which was coincident with the upper planned level while the funding costs decreased. However this auction didn’t attract any special attention.
The dollar has been rising for three days already but after such growth it can show some correction. Economic expectation index of Germany ZEW will be released on Tuesday and it is expected to rise, which can favor such correction. Also industrial production data in eurozone will be published at that time.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 15/05/2013
ZEW index didn’t meet the expectations of the dollar growth correction
Germany economic sentiment index released on Tuesday from the ZEW research institute didn’t reach the expected figures of 40 points and was at the level of 36.4 in comparison with 36.3 points in March. It dispelled all the hopes of possible dollar’s growth correction. The index of current conditions in Germany dropped to the level of 8.9 points in May from 9.2 points in April and also turned out lower than the expected figures of 9.8 points.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
ZEW president Clemens Fuest commented the results of the research and marked that the current bad economic situation in eurozone is still putting pressure on investors’ and analysts’ sentiment. Economic sentiment index is calculated from the poll of financial experts to estimate an economic situation in the country for the nearest 6 months. A figure above zero indicates predominance of optimism, below – pessimism. High indicator’s figures show positive economic situation and a good business climate.
However industrial production data in eurozone turned out much better than expected. Industrial production rose by 1% in March in comparison with 0.4% in February while only 0.5% growth was expected, which became the largest growth since July, 2011. It increases hopes for eurozone’s economy revival as it has been in decline for 6 quarters in a row. GDP data of eurozone will be published on Wednesday.
The dollar continued rising on Tuesday for the 4th day in a row while there were shown new signs of American economy recovery and possible early closing up of incentive programmes. The head of FED Plosser declared that he wanted bonds buying programmes to be finished by the end of the year. He also said that the FED should close-up bonds buying programme at the next meeting already.
U.S. Congressional Budget Office announced on Tuesday that the federal budget deficit this year was likely to decrease sharply. Also, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) declared that its Small Business Optimism Index grew in April to 92.1 against 89.5 in March.
While the dollar was rising, the pound continued falling on Tuesday despite the publication of BoE Inflation Report on Wednesday and RICS House Price Balance which showed that housing prices in Great Britain had risen up to the highest level since June, 2010.
Australian dollar continued falling on Tuesday – the 7th day in a row – and dropped to the lowest level since June. The government of Australia introduced a new budget plan and announced that in the current financial year the budget will be well balanced, which differs from the forecast. Also it was marked that the deficit would be observed for 4 financial years until 2016.
New Zealand dollar also dropped on Tuesday after the quarterly retail sales report. According to the report of New Zealand statistics department the total retail sales amount in the first quarter grew only by 0.5%, with growth expectations of 0.8%. Besides, the data for the previous quarter were revised down.
On Wednesday markets’ attention will be attracted by preliminary GDP data of eurozone’s main countries and the eurozone as a whole. There are expectations of some improvements in comparison with the previous quarter. ECB board member Jörg Asmussen announced on Tuesday that the economy of Germany had risen in the first quarter while the eurozone had been in "mild recession" for the whole of 2013.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 16/05/2013
Eurozone economy has been decreasing for the sixth quarter in a row
On Wednesday almost all published macrostatistics turned out disappointing. First of all, preliminary GDP of main eurozone’s countries for the first quarter didn’t reach the expected levels. Besides, the previous quarter data were revised down. So, the GDP of France decreased by 0.2% while a drop by 0.1% was expected; the GDP of Italy fell by 0.5% while -0.4% drop was expected; the GDP of Germany rose only by 0.1% while +0.3% figure was forecasted.
The eurozone GDP as a whole dropped by 0.1% having shown a decline for the 6th quarter in a row, which also turned out lower than the forecast of -0.2%. At the same time the U.S. economy didn’t show negative quarter growth rates from the second quarter of 2009, which is very well seen on the chart below.
Source: epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu
According to this data the euro fell to the 6-weeks minimum against the U.S. dollar but then it was maintained at the level of 1.2850 and even made an attempt to rise. Such situation was influenced by negative data of the U.S. economy. The manufacturing activity business from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York unexpectedly fell to -1.43 in May, compared with 3.05 in April and the growth forecast to 4.00.
Inflation in the manufacturing sector showed the most drastic decline for more than three years. The producer price index fell by 0.7% in April. Mainly it happened due to the drop of energy prices which fell by 2.5% for the month. The absence of inflation pressure is especially negative for the dollar as it allows continuing quantitative easing and buying of bonds without a fear of price growth.
The U.S. industrial production fell by 0.5% in April while a drop by 0.1% was expected, which was connected with a production loss in the manufacturing industry sector and decrease in demand of municipal services. Capacity utilization fell to 77.8% with the forecast of 78.3%. The data of March also lowered.
The index of industrial production in the USA
Source: federalreserve.gov
The data on the inflow of capital into the United States also turned out negative. Net Long-term TIC Flows in March amounted to 13.5 billion dollars against the forecast of their purchases in the amount of 43.4 billion. Investors mainly bought short-term bonds in March fearing that automatic reduction in expenditures of the federal budget can influence a weak recovery of American economy.
Only statistics from the National Association of Home Builders / NAHB / showed some improvement. NAHB Housing Market Index rose in May, after three months of decline –up to the level of 44, with growth forecast up to 43. On Thursday another U.S. macrostatistics block will be published: housing data, consumer inflation and weekly applications for benefits.
The pound managed to become stable on Wednesday after 4 days of decrease. It was supported by labor market data which happened to be better than expected. The number of applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 7300 in April while a decrease by 3100 was expected. Also, the unemployment rate decreased by 0.1% to the level of 4.5%, while according to the forecast it was to remain the same - at the level of 4.6%.
The Bank of England in its inflation report for the 2nd quarter increased forecasts for GDP growth in the UK, but stressed that the recovery would be weak. It is supposed that in the second quarter of 2013 the GDP growth will increase up to 0.5% from 0.3% in the first quarter. The head of the Bank of England Mervyn King marked that economy recovery was very close. According to him forecast improvement became the first since the beginning of financial crisis.
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 17/05/2013
The dollar shows its strength despite weak macrostatistics data
At the end of Thursday the dollar almost didn’t change according to the dollar index that shows its relation to the basket of six major currencies. The dollar rose against commodity currencies, fell against the pound and almost didn’t change against the euro and the yen. Although in the middle of the day it made attempts of growth correction after another portion of negative economic data this week.
The dollar was supported at the end of the day by San Francisco FED president John Williams who said that the reduction of bond purchases was possible by the summer as the labor market situation had improved since September although it would need a further growth. “If everything will be as we hope, we can finish the programme of bond purchases at the end of this year”, - said Williams.
The same thing was also announced on Thursday by another FED representative, Dallas FED president, Richard Fisher. All this reinforces speculations on earlier exit from economic stimulus programme and plays into the hand of the dollar despite not very favorable macroeconomic data.
On Wednesday, as we remember, there were data on manufacturing inflation, which showed a strong decline. On Thursday consumer inflation data were also negative. The consumer price index fell by 0.4% in April in comparison with 0.2% drop last month which was mainly the result of petrol price fall by 8.1%.
Housing Starts in the U.S. in April fell more than expected - by 16.5% in comparison with the previous month and amounted to 853 thousand in annual basis which is the lowest figure for five months. The number of initial claims rose to the level of 360 thousand with expectations of only 330 thousand, which shows the biggest weekly gain since November 2012. And the weak macrostatistics block was finished by the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing Index which fell to -5.2 in May while its growth up to 2.0 was expected.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Resource: phil.frb.org
The euro grew up at the beginning of the day after the release of inflation and trade balance data. The eurozone’s trade surplus increased in March and turned out two times more than in February, which was connected with a sharp export increase and import decrease. Inflation in eurozone in April slowed in annual basis up to 1.2% after 1.7% growth in March, which is the lowest level since February, 2010.
But then the euro receded from almost all conquered positions, which was influenced by the words of the EU industry commissioner Tajani about the strength of the euro. He called on the European Central Bank to take measures for weakening the single European currency and help the exporters. Especially bad impact on them is made by the euro growth against the yen.
The Australian dollar dropped on Thursday to the 11-months minimum against the forecast of Goldman Sachs which lowered on Thursday AUDUSD to the level of 0.90 from 0.98 by the end of the year. Other banks make even lower forecasts. UBS considers that the pair can fall to 0.80 level if the investment boom in Australia weakens quicker than it was expected due to commodity
By MasterForex Company
Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 20/05/2013
The main events of this week
The dollar rose on Friday against all major currencies and exceeded the level of 103 in the pair USDJPY for the first time since October, 2008 – after the release of a preliminary index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan in May, which happened to be much better than expected. It rose up to 83.7 points in May – maximum level since July, 2007 in comparison with 76.4 points last month.
The U.S. composite leading indicators from the Conference Board also rose in April by 0.6% and turned out three times higher than expected. These data show the possibility of further economic growth strengthening in the United States. The rally in the stock market, property market recovery and petrol price lowering can support consumer spendings which amount to more than 70% of the U.S. GDP.
Resource: conference-board.org
For the last week the dollar had risen by 1.4% in the dollar index which showed its relation towards the basket of six major currencies despite mixed data released last week. Market participants are more focused on earlier exit of the U.S. economy from incentive programmes, which was announced by some FED representatives last week. Even San Francisco FED president John Williams, who formerly belonged to the camp of «pigeons», made such statement.
This week a meeting of the Central Bank of Japan will be held and there will be a release of Australian Central Bank last meetings minutes (on Tuesday) and of Bank of England (on Wednesday). We can hardly expect any surprises from these events.
On Wednesday "minutes" of the last FED meeting in May will be published and market's participants will not leave it without attention. It was at that meeting where a possibility to change the volume of program of bond purchases, as upwards and downwards - depending on the situation in the economy – was announced. And if these minutes don't prove the assumptions of closing up of incentive programmes, the dollar can strengthen considerably.
The main events of eurozone will be Thursday release of preliminary PMI for May on industrial and service sector, and IFO indexes on Friday. According to the PMI a slight rise is expected but the indexes are below the level of 50 which shows the economy decline. IFO should remain unchanged. Eurozone economic prospects remain weak and no economic recovery seems to happen. On Thursday evening European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will make a statement in London about "The Future of Europe in the global economy".
Manufacturing and consumers inflation data of Britain will be released on Tuesday. It is expected to indicate a slowdown in the annual inflation rate in April. Retail sales data will be published on Wednesday; it is expected to grow slightly in comparison with the previous month. On Thursday in the second reading the country's GDP data will be published which are expected to be unchanged in comparison with its first estimate.
There are few data on the USA and mainly there will be housing market data: on Wednesday – existing home sales, on Thursday - new home sales and house price index from the FHFA. The housing market has shown some revival lately and becomes one of the driving forces of the U.S. economy growth. On Friday there will be durable goods orders. Last month they fell considerably. This month they are expected to grow a little.
But the main event of the week can be a speech of the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday who will speak before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress with a speech about the U.S. economic outlook. In this speech market participants will look for some hints on the future of economic incentive programs, which can have a direct impact on the dollar.
The main bonds auctions of eurozone's countries (UTC time):
20-May
13:00 France to Sell Bills
21-May
08:00 the Netherlands to Sell 99-Day and 190-Day Bills
08:30 Spain to Sell 3- and 9-Month Bills
22-May
09:30 Germany to Sell Up to EUR5 Bln 10-Year Bonds
23-May
08:30 Spain to Sell Bonds
By MasterForex Company