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Although Japanese GDP growth more than doubled, expectations in the third quarter, USD/JPY rose as high as 108. The rally may have stopped right below the 50- and 100-period SMA cross on the weekly chart (see below), but the pair’s uptrend is far from over. Trump’s victory was a game changer for the dollar and stocks. These fundamental forces have not run their course and for this reason, the dollar’s rally isn’t over. Hitting 110 is not only possible but likely for USD/JPY but rather than chase the move, it may be smarter to wait for a pullback toward 107. U.S. retail sales are scheduled for release Tuesday and it’s a tough call because while wages are on the rise, confidence has been low, employment growth slow and gas prices have fallen.
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