EUR/USD: Large Triangle Still In Place: Make Or Break Levels - Goldman Sachs
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The base case scenario remains for EURUSD to eventually continue its long-term trend. As has been discussed in the past, the currency has formed a triangle like consolidation since the Mar. ’15 low. This is now getting closer to looking like a complete ABCDE.
Once complete, the market should in theory resume its underlying trend (i.e. commence wave V). This would mean eventually breaking through the base of the triangle (1.0588) and back down towards the Mar. ‘15 low (1.0458), if not significantly lower.
All of this is contingent on 1) the market holding below triangle resistance which is currently at 1.1576 and 2) wave E ending somewhere beneath the top of wave C which is up at 1.1616.
In other words, any break beyond 1.1576-1.1616 will seriously call into question the nature of this setup. Doing so would imply potential to have already put in a meaningful base.
View: Cautious above 1.1398-1.1427 (highs from June). Any move past 1.1576-1.1616 warns that a more meaningful low could already be in place.