Brexit: Everything You Need To Know - page 9

 

Brexit - The Economist 2017 prediction: "Theresa May will have achieved little of substance"


A Brexit view from The Economist

They reckon that "By the end of 2017 Theresa May will have achieved little of substance"
  • Britain is now in unknown, volatile territory
  • When she triggers Article 50, Mrs May will begin a two-year countdown to Brexit. The first couple of months will bring bureaucratic throat-clearing (the European Commission will lead the talks, with the European Council breathing down its neck). In the run-up to France's presidential election, in April and May, mainstream French politicians will talk tough about Brexit to counter ­Marine Le Pen, the right-wing populist who wants her country to hold its own referendum on leaving the EU. Shortly afterwards German politics will turn inwards ahead of a parliamentary election in September, ­probably re-engaging in earnest with Brexit only in November, once a new coalition has emerged in Berlin.
 
I am not totally convined that Brexit will happen in the end. There are a lot of potential things that could stop this happening. The main problem now is the uncertainty. This is likely to continue for a long time yet.
 

Germany’s Slowing Economy Highlights Need for “Comprehensive” Post-Brexit Trade Deal With UK


Germany’s growth engine slowed more than expected in the third quarter, as exports fell in the wake of the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union (EU). According to one German official, the slowdown hastens the need to reach a new post-Brexit trade agreement with London.

Europe’s largest economy expanded just 0.2% in the third quarter, halving the previous quarter’s growth rate, the Federal Statistics Office reported last week. A median estimate of economists called for 0.3% growth. Exports detracted from growth, while household and state spending increased further.

While the German economy is expected to end the year on a high note, some are worried about the country’s trade outlook in the wake of Brexit. Ilse Aigner, Germany’s economy minister, recently said that Brexit poses a “high risk” to Germany, seeing as how the UK is one of Bavaria’s “most important trading partners.”

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently indicated she was willing to compromise on the issue of mobility following the UK’s referendum. Free movement is a central tenant of pan-European integration, one that the UK government opposes in the wake of Brexit.

The UK government must invoke Article 50 of the EU Treaty before beginning a new round of trade talks with Brussels. British Prime Minister Theresa May has indicated she intends to notify Brussels of her intent to leave the EU by the end of March.


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Another legal challenge regarding Brexit on its way


BBC reporting 28 Nov 2016

The BBC has learned that the UK govt is facing a legal battle over whether the UK stays inside the single market after it has left the EU,

Lawyers say uncertainty over the UK's European Economic Area membership means ministers could be stopped from taking Britain out of the single market.

They will argue the UK will not leave the EEA automatically when it leaves the EU and Parliament should decide, but the government said EEA membership ends when the UK leaves the EU.

Lawyers expect there to be a legal challenge to decide whether it is up to Parliament or government to make the decision to take the UK out of the single market.

If the courts back this assessment and give Parliament the final say over EEA membership, then MPs could vote to ensure that Britain stays in the single market until a long-term trading relationship with the EU has been agreed.

The EEA was set up in the 1990s to extend the single market to non-EU members like Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein.All EU member states are in the European Economic Area and it had been assumed that when Britain leaves the EU it would automatically leave the EEA as well.

But some lawyers argue that leaving the EEA would not be automatic and would happen only if Britain formally withdraws by triggering Article 127 of the EEA agreement. The legal question is focused on whether the UK is a member of the EEA in its own right or because it is a member of the EU.

More from the Beeb here

 

UK Supreme Court to begin its deliberations on Brexit today


The UK government's appeal against the High Court ruling begins today 5 Dec

We posted on the original 3 Nov decision here and now the highest court in the land will begin a landmark legal hearing into whether Parliament's consent is required before official Brexit negotiations can begin.

The High Court ruled that rights conferred by Parliament when it passed the 1972 European Communities Act - which paved the way for the UK to join the then European Economic Community - were likely to be affected by Brexit.

As a result, it concluded, any process leading to the potential withdrawal of rights could only be determined by Parliament.

Here's the key points:

  • The case is about whether the government needs Parliament to trigger the process for the UK to leave the EU
  • The government argues it can start the Article 50 process using "prerogative powers", a remnant of the era of all-powerful kings and queens
  • Justices will be ruling on who has the legal power to change the rights of British citizens

It's worth noting though that this petition is not designed to prevent Brexit but that Parliament should be allowed to have its say. Indeed Gina Miller leading the campaign last week conceded on BBC Radio that Brexit was still very likely to go ahead.

Govt ministers will have a number of options if they lose the appeal, but it has been reported that a 16-word bill is being prepared which could be fast-tracked though Parliament, asking MPs and peers "to give permission" to the government to trigger Article 50 in time to meet the March deadline.

And yes folks, you can watch the whole thing live here but don't forget that this part of the process is scheduled to last a few days ( 5 to 8 Dec. Start times: 5 Dec - 11:00 GMT 6 Dec - 10:15  7 Dec - 10:30  8 Dec - 10:15) and a decision not due until January.

However, given the market's penchant for dancing on hot coals right now we might expect some reaction to headlines/comments in the meantime.

Full back story from the Beeb here

 

UK MPs to vote on Article 50 timetable today


In a turnaround UK PM May has agreed to a vote on triggering Article 50 7 Dec

The news came out last night so not new but I'm just highlighting for good order and its potential impact on GBP pairs.

PM Theresa May has agreed to publish her plan for leaving the EU in order to avoid a possible Tory rebellion and defeat in the Commons.The government hopes this will persuade MPs to support its schedule for starting the process of leaving the EU.

Labour - which initiated the debate - said it would back the timetable but had wanted scrutiny of Brexit plans. Labour's shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer put forward a motion to be debated on Wednesday, with support from some on the Conservative back benches.

The party wanted to force the government to reveal its negotiating stance before formal talks with EU leaders get under way. Downing Street tabled an amendment agreeing to outline its strategy, in exchange for MP's approval of the government's timetable for triggering Article 50.


source

 

What Brexit? McDonalds to move its international tax base to the UK


Maccas is moving its  international tax base to the United Kingdom from Luxembourg

  • Creating a new international holding company
  • Domiciled in the UK
  • To receive the majority of royalties from licensing deals outside the United States
Adds Reuters:
The reorganization comes amid an investigation by the EU into what it says are sweetheart tax deals that smaller states in the bloc offer to multinational companies to lure jobs and investment.
 

UK government facing new Brexit court case


Opponents to Britain leaving the European Union will launch a fresh legal action this week, which could further hamper Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit plans, The Sunday Times reported.

The newspaper said campaigners will write to the UK government on Monday saying they are taking it to the High Court in an effort to keep Britain in the single market.

It said the claimants will seek a judicial review in an attempt to give lawmakers a new power of veto over the terms on which Britain leaves the EU.

They argue the government “has no mandate” to withdraw from the single market because it was not on the referendum ballot paper on June 23 and was not part of the ruling Conservative Party's manifesto for the 2015 general election.

May has said she wants to invoke Article 50 of the EU's Lisbon Treaty by the end of March, kicking off up to two years of exit negotiations.

However the High Court ruled last month that Article 50 cannot be triggered without parliament's assent. That ruling is being challenged by the government in Britain's Supreme Court.

The Sunday Times said the new court case hinges on whether the government would also have to trigger another legal measure — Article 127 of the European Economic Area agreement — in order to quit the single market.

It said ministers argue Britain automatically exits the single market when it quits the EU. But, it said if the claimants win the new case, the government would have to gain the approval of lawmakers.


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Brexit Summarized (In A 10 Second Clip From The EU Summit Today)


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-15/brexit-summarized-10-second-clip-eu-summit-today

 

UK's May tells EU leaders she wants an early Brexit deal


UK PM May has been attending the European Council summit in Brussels

BBC reporting.

The headline didn't come from May herself, who left the meeting without making comment, but Irish PM Enda Kenny revealed what Mrs May had told them, saying:

 "She would like to have the question of UK citizens living in Europe and European citizens living in the UK dealt with in the early part of discussions that take place."

Kenny also said the Irish Republic would not sign a bilateral deal with the UK and the UK had to agree its future relationship with the EU first.

After Mrs May's departure, the 27 other EU leaders met informally for 20 minutes to discuss their approach to Brexit negotiations.

They agreed that European Commission official Michel Barnier will lead talks for the EU - although MEPs are said to want a greater say.

European Council president Donald Tusk said the "short, informal meeting" had:

  "reconfirmed our principles, meaning the indivisibility of the four freedoms, the balance of rights and obligations and the rule 'no negotiations without notification'".

European Parliament president Martin Schulz has warned that negotiations could be vetoed if MEPs are not fully involved.

The Beeb has more here