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Australia export price index +12.4% vs +12.1% q/q expected
Australian export/import prices along with the PPI
AUD/USD Bounces Despite Stronger Dollar
AUD/USD attempted to recovery on Friday, despite the US Dollar index (DXY) extending higher in a recovery. The pair was boosted by weaker US data but upside momentum was not sustained as the pair pulled back to give back about half of its daily gains shortly after the release.
Fourth quarter GDP out of the United States fell short of expectations with the first reading pointing to a rise of 1.9% versus the expected rise of 2.2% and a gain of 3.5% in the prior quarter. The data triggered a push higher from the pre-release level of 0.7542 to a high of 0.7570 prior to a pullback. The pair was last seen trading at 0.7546 to limit the gain to 0.18% on the day. Simultaneously released with the GDP data were durable goods orders, pointing to a decline of 0.4% for December and a rise of 0.5% in the core figure.
AUD/USD turned lower following an early week test of resistance at 0.7589 and broke through a rising trendline after Australian inflation data fell short of expectations on Tuesday. The pair appears to be in a correction lower and while the was a recovery attempt today, momentum has been slow and a technical signal for a continuation of the broader uptrend has been lacking.
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AUD/USD forecast for the week of January 30, 2017
The Australian dollar did very little during the week, forming a relatively neutral candle just above the 0.75 level. If we can break below the 0.75 level, and even more importantly the 0.74 level, the market should fall from there and reach towards the 0.72 handle. Alternately, if we break above the top of the candle, the market should then get to the 0.7750 level above. This is a market that is asking a lot of questions of itself, but you must keep in mind that the gold markets look bearish on the weekly charts, and that will way upon the Aussie.
Australia - NAB Business conditions: 11 (prior 5) & Confidence: 6 (prior 5)
National Australia Bank Business Survey for December
Australia - manufacturing PMI (January): 51.2 (prior 55.4)
Australian Industry Group Performance of Manufacturing Index, a big drop on the month to 51.2