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Australia - AIG Manufacturing PMI for September: 49.8 (prior 46.9)
Australian Industry Group Performance of Manufacturing index
Australia - ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence: 117.9 (prior 120.6)
Weekly consumer sentiment data from Australia
RBA Rate Decision: Reserve Bank Holds Interest Rate at 1.5% for Second Straight Month
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept monetary policy unchanged Tuesday, as officials awaited new evidence of inflation and economic growth.
The RBA held the overnight interest rate at 1.5%, unchanged from the previous month and in line with the consensus estimate. The central bank slashed rates by 25 basis points in August, its second easing campaign of the year.
“Inflation remains quite low. Given very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world, this is expected to remain the case for some time,” the RBA said in a statement.
“Low interest rates have been supporting domestic demand and the lower exchange rate since 2013 has been helping the traded sector. Financial institutions are in a position to lend for worthwhile purposes. These factors are all assisting the economy to make the necessary economic adjustments, though an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this.”
A private measure of inflation released on Monday showed stronger price growth in September. The TD Securities-Melbourne Institute consumer inflation index increased by 0.4% and was up 1.3% over year-ago levels.
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Australia August retail sales +0.4% m/m (expected +0.2%)
A much better performance from Australian retail sales
Australia housing market - 50 'high risk' areas
The Australian Financial Review report on CEO of the National Australia Bank's appearance in parliament
AUD/USD forecast for the week of October 10, 2016
The AUD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but then turn right back around to reach down towards the 0.75 level. I believe this area should be supportive though, so I don’t have any interest in shorting at this point in time. However, I would start selling if we broke down below the 0.74 level, as it would show a real break down of significant support. I have no interest in buying this market at the moment, so therefore I’m not even looking for the trade.
AUD/USD Weekly Forecast October 10-14
AUD/USD turned lower this week after notable gains in the prior two weeks. Broad-based strength in the Greenback triggered a turn lower on Tuesday, while a technical break on Wednesday has activated a head and shoulders pattern seen on a 4-hour chart. The RBA left rates unchanged this week, and labor data out of the United States was reported softer than expected.
The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates at 1.50% at their meeting this week and was seen moving towards a more neutral stance in their monetary policy statement. The central bank remains in a cycle of easing, having cut rates at their May and August meetings, but has been taking a more optimistic view of the economy over the past two meetings. A poor CPI reading in April had triggered the current rate cut cycle, and the bank is becoming increasingly accepting of a low inflation environment, stating that subdued inflation levels have been impacting economies across the globe. The bank referenced the rise in commodity prices, but a sharp decline in precious metals this week stands to impact their viewpoint at the next meeting. Concerns over house price inflation have further subsided with a recently changed method of calculating house prices indicating that measures in lending standards have attributed to a cooling of the housing markets. The central bank did not express any concerns over the exchange rate but included the standard clause, seen in the statement throughout the year, that a further appreciation could complicate things.
Non-farm employment out of the United States was reported to increase 154,000 against analyst expectations for an increase of 171,000 in September. August figures were revised up to 167,000 from 151,000, the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.0% from the prior 4.9%, and average hourly earnings edged up to 0.2% from the previous month’s reading of 0.1%.
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S&P's "startling warning" on Australian debt
Standard & Poor's says Australia's foreign debt has hit "extreme" levels that match the worst in the world
Australia data - Sept business confidence 6 (prior 6) & conditions 8 (prior 7)
National Australia Bank Business Survey for September
Australia - Westpac's consumer confidence index (October): +1.1% m/m (prior +0.3%)
Consumer sentiment survey from Australian bank Westpac