EUR/USD Into Next Week's FOMC: Range & Outlook
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EUR/USD – NEUTRAL BIAS – (1.1200-1.1600)
The US dollar is trading on a weaker footing in the near-term following the release of the shockingly weak payrolls report for May. It is now viewed as a certainty that the Fed will not resume rate hikes at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The updated Fed statement may echo recent comments from Fed Chair Yellen which were cautiously optimistic acknowledging the strong rebound in personal consumption early in Q2 but warning that labour market conditions will have to be watched closely now.
We do not expect the Fed to provide calendar based forward guidance over the potential timing of the next rate hike. The updated dot plots will be watched closely to see if the Fed still plans to raise rates twice this year. The US dollar will be vulnerable to the downside if the number of planned hikes for this year falls to just one. It is more likely that the Fed will reduce the number of hikes planned for next year and in the long-run which would weigh more modestly on the US dollar.
The euro could also face some downside risk in the week ahead as we move closer to the EU referendum in the UK. So far the euro has been little impacted by Brexit risk ahead of the referendum although it could yet become more of a weight.