NZD news - page 11

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NZ card spending, October: +2.8% m/m (prior +2.6%)


New Zealand

Card spending, October: +2.8% m/m (prior +2.6%)
And for the y/y, +10.2% (prior +8.2%)
 
New Zealand's unadjusted annual net gain (more arrivals than departures) of migrants was a record 70,300 in the October 2016 year        
  • surpasses the previous annual record of 70,000 in the September 2016 year.    
  • driven by the increase in migrant arrivals
Also:
  • Visitor arrivals numbered 260,200 in October 2016
  • A new October record
  • The latest month's figure was up 14 percent from October 2015
  • In the October 2016 year visitor arrivals hit a record 3.42 million, up 12 percent from October 2015
 

New Zealand - trade balance for October: -846m (vs. expected -971m)


NZ trade deficit data for October

Trade balance, -846m, a beat and a big improvement on September
  • expected -971m, prior was -1394m, revised from -1436m
Exports, 3.90bn ... a beat for exports
  • expected 3.76bn, prior was 3.46bn, revised from 3.47bn
  • exports +2.2% y/y
Imports, 4.74bn
  • expected 4.66bn, prior was 4.86bn, revised from 4.90bn
 

NZD/USD Forecast November 28, 2016


The New Zealand dollar rally during the day on Friday, breaking the top of the hammer from the Thursday session. This of course is a very bullish sign, but I think there’s quite a bit of resistance above that will continue to weigh upon the Kiwi dollar. Sooner or later, an exhaustive candle should appear that I can start shorting and that’s exactly what I’m going to do as I think it’s going to take a bit of momentum to break down below the 0.70 handle. I have no interest in buying the New Zealand dollar now.


 

RBNZ highlights financial risks but is generally upbeat


RBNZ examines financial system

  • Financial system is sound but continues to face risks
  • Banking system has strong capital and funding buffers, profits remain high
  • Banking system's reliance on offshore wholesale funding is beginning to increase
  • Financial markets have remained volatile due to political uncertainty
  • Banks could become susceptible to higher wholesale funding costs due to a rise in financial market volatility
  • Share of bank lending to customers with high debt-to-income ratios is rising
  • Debt-to-income restrictions could be warranted if housing imbalances were to deteriorate further
  • Indebtedness in the dairy sector has increase, leaving it vulnerable to shocks
  • House price inflation in Auckland has softened but it is uncertain if it will be sustained
  • There is a significant risk of further upward pressure on housing
  • Undertaking current review of bank capital requirements
 

New Zealand - Terms of trade index (Q3): -1.8% q/q (expected 0.0%)


NZ - Terms of trade index (Q3): % q/q

  • expected 0.0%
  • previous quarter was -2.1% q/q
  • Export goods prices fell for dairy, meat, and forestry
  • Terms of trade have fallen in four of the last five quarters
  • Goods export prices fell 2.8 percent
  • Goods export volumes and values both fell
  • Goods import prices fell 1.0 percent
 

NZD/USD Weekly Forecast December 5-9


NZD/USD extended higher to post a second consecutive week of gains. The pair closed the week out near highs as a mid-week selloff from important resistance was short-lived. The pair has been boosted by a correction in the Dollar but continues to carry a bearish bias following a technical break in the middle of November.

The US Dollar index (DXY) posted a decline in the past week to snap a three-week winning streak. Momentum had slowed in the prior week, hinting of a turn, and stronger US data this past week failed to support the Greenback.

Data out of the United States came in mostly positive with quarterly GDP revised up to 3.2%, non-farm employment gains at 178,000 and the unemployment rate improving to 4.6%. Average earnings were reported below expectations with a decline of 0.1% while the annual core PCE price index remained unchanged at 1.7%.

During the past week, NZD/USD tested the lower line of a rising channel that had broken down on November 15. The channel dates back to the start of the year to provide a bearish signal over the medium-term. The currency pair tested the pattern on Wednesday, resulting in a sharp decline to print a daily bearish engulfing candle. Losses were not sustained, however, with a following two-day recovery lifting the pair to close near weekly highs.

The latest COT data continues to indicate a fairly neutral position in the Kiwi Dollar. Non-commercials were reported to hold the currency net short by $133 million, down $96 million from the prior week. The data is accurate to November 29 and was reported on December 2.

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NZ PM Key will not stand for re-election in 2017

New Zealand Prime Minister John Key says he will resign in 2017

  • 'A good time to go'
  • His party will win next year under Bill English
 

NZD took a tumble


NZD/USD dropped just prior to the RBA announcement

AUD/USD had lost a little bit of ground after the data earlier today, but the kiwi had hung in there.
So maybe it was a bit of 'catch up' (catch down more like).

 

NZD/USD Fails Again to Stay Above Key Fibonacci Level


The NZD/USD pair is stalling again around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline during November. It approached the 50% retracement on November 30, but has not since been able to trade above that day high of $0.7169. The current climb higher looks like a correction and the fact the pair is failing to gain traction above conservative retracement levels reinforces this belief.

The 20 and 50-day moving averages are firmly pointed lower at this time and also acting as difficult resistance for the NZD/USD to stay above. The day highs on November 30 and today both were just above the 50-day moving average.

If the correction view holds, then trade above the 61.8% retracement level at $0.7262 shouldn’t occur. It seems unlikely at this time, but if it does traders will want to consider bullish momentum picking up.

The rapid decline during November never pushed the Relative Strength Index into oversold territory and is currently at a neutral reading just shy of 50. Renewed weakness from here will have to be strong before an oversold reading is registered.

A decline below the most recent swing low to start the month at $0.7043 will expose the recent lows at $0.6971. A fresh low below $0.7000 will signify the trend has reasserted itself in a strong manner. This would also represent a decline below the 61.8% retracement level of the rally from May through to September. The next Fibonacci support level below the November low and 61.8% lines up at the 78.6% retracement at $0.6852.

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