Why this price changed on this way? - page 2

 
figurelli:
I see what you mean. And if the news today, instead of good for the EUR, was good for the USD? This technical analysis would change?

What I mean is: this technical analysis could in some way be related to this news before you know the news?

Fundamental analysis is answering to the question -
"why this price is moved on this way?", or "who moved this price on this side"

Technical analysis is something about HowTo use technical indicators (Moving Averages, Stochastics, Ichimoku, price by itself and so on), and it is replying to the following questions: 'what's happened exactly?" and "which kind of scenarios we will see if technical indicators will have some values/levels".

Technical analysis is based on some principle : price can not be turned from bearish to bullish (for example) in immediate way, the price is having some inertia - the price is turned on the way as the vehicle is turned. The processes of this "turning" are named as correction and rally (both - secondary trend).

 
figurelli:
I see what you mean. And if the news today, instead of good for the EUR, was good for the USD? This technical analysis would change?

What I mean is: this technical analysis could in some way be related to this news before you know the news?

Yes - in case of EURUSD pair : if not good for EUR so it is good for USD, and price should be moved down (downward) in this case. Good for EUR currency (EUR is related to) is French news events, Spain news events, German news events, EURO news events etc). USD is related to US news events only.

But! There is China existing :) ... so ... in some cases - economic news from China are affected a lot for EUR and USD too.

 
angevoyageur:

The topic is "Why price change this way ?". It's simple : because there are a lot of buyer who enter in the market.

  • Fundamentals analysis can (maybe) tell you why buyers enter the market.
  • Technical analysis can't tell you anything about "why".
  • Astrology is pseudo-science and can only be a deception about trading (or anything else).
Yes, that's right
 

newdigital:

...

Fundamental Analysis

We had few news events in the morning:

  • PMI Manufacturing
  • PMI Services

=========

PMI Services :

This index reflects the business optimism in the service sector. The indicator is calculated based on interviewing of executives in Germany, France, Ireland, Italy and Spain. Together, these countries account for about 4/5 of all activity in the service sector of Eurozone.

The indicator values about 50 points indicate that during the reporting period there was neither extension no reduction of the service sector. Values above 50 indicate growth in this sector. Figures below 50 may indicate deterioration in the service sector.

Because 2/3 of GDP is created in the service sector, PMI Services is an important and timely indicator of health of economy. The index has a significant impact on the market.

  • Release Frequency: monthly.
  • Release Schedule: 09:00 GMT, the third working day of the month.

=========

PMI Manufacturing :

This index assesses business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Because the manufacturing sector represents nearly a quarter of the total Eurozone GDP, the Eurozone PMI Manufacturing is a significant and timely indicator of business conditions and the general health of the economy.

The indicator values about 50 points indicate that during the reporting period there was neither extension no reduction of the manufacturing sector. Values above 50 indicate growth in this sector. Figures below 50 may indicate deterioration in the manufacturing sector.

  • Release Frequency: monthly.
  • Release Schedule: 09:00 GMT, the first working day of the month.

=========

...

We see that there were the following PMI news events this GMT morning :

  • French Manufacturing PMI
  • French Services PMI
  • German Manufacturing PMI
  • German Services PMI
  • EUR Manufacturing PMI
  • EUR Services PMI
...

I don't understand well what you posted about these events :

  • It seems to me we aren't the first or the third working day of the month ?
  • Metaquotes demo server is at GMT+1 (Access point Europe) and the first event "French Manufacturing" is at 8:58 GMT+1 on my chart, so it's 7:58 (or 8:00) GMT, not 09:00.

I am wrong ?

 

It may be interesting situation :) we know that actual data for ecomonic news events are published on some official websites. So, the price is started to be moved in the time of this publishing (actual data is taked from official websites by all economic calendars).

But there are some guys ... who are publishing/calculating those data ... and they exactly know actual values 10 or 20 seconds before publishing. So, they can easy place buy or sell position based on this confidential information. Name of those guys are insiders - they are the best traders in the world :)

It is joke but as far as I know - there are some laws against such insiders in most of the countries.

 
angevoyageur:

I don't understand well what you posted about these events :

  • It seems to me we aren't the first or the third working day of the month ?
  • Metaquotes demo server is at GMT+1 (Access point Europe) and the first event "French Manufacturing" is at 8:58 GMT+1 on my chart, so it's 7:58 (or 8:00) GMT, not 09:00.

I am wrong ?

It was description about this news from MQ for EUR (at 09:58 MQ time, or 08:58 GMT).

There is no France here (not yet included), and no Spain ...

 
newdigital:

It was description about this news from MQ for EUR (at 09:58 MQ time, or 08:58 GMT).

There is no France here (not yet included), and no Spain ...

These data don't seem not up to date.
 
newdigital:

It may be interesting situation :) we know that actual data for ecomonic news events are published on some official websites. So, the price is started to be moved in the time of this publishing (actual data is taked from official websites by all economic calendars).

But there are some guys ... who are publishing/calculating those data ... and they exactly know actual values 10 or 20 seconds before publishing. So, they can easy place buy or sell position based on this confidential information. Name of those guys are insiders - they are the best traders in the world :)

It is joke but as far as I know - there are some laws against such insiders in most of the countries.

From the following screenshot, we can see that price began to move up before first news release. I draw a red horizontal to show the price at 8:58 GMT+1 at time of French PMI Manufacturing.

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M15, 2014.01.23

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

EURUSD M15, redline is price at 8:58 GMT+1, at moment of first news (French PMI Manufacturing)

EURUSD, M15, 2014.01.23, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

Obviously, price rose before 8:58, approximatively at 08:30 GMt+1.
 
angevoyageur:

The topic is "Why price change this way ?". It's simple : because there are a lot of buyer who enter in the market.

  • Fundamentals analysis can (maybe) tell you why buyers enter the market.
  • Technical analysis can't tell you anything about "why".
  • Astrology is pseudo-science and can only be a deception about trading (or anything else).


Why are you so sure that are a lot and not just few? ;-)

Anyway, why don't ask why as a generic and abstract question? Because technical analysis can't tell you anything about?

 
angevoyageur:

From the following screenshot, we can see that price began to move up before first news release. I draw a red horizontal to show the price at 8:58 GMT+1 at time of French PMI Manufacturing.

Obviously, price rose before 8:58, approximatively at 08:30 GMt+1.

people knew :)

To say it seriously - the market was volatile because there were no any serious high impacted news events today for EUR and USD. Or ... may be - this PMI events were predictable by actual data ... who knows ... when I traded fundamental news events so I placed pending orders 3 or 5 minutes before the news, because if I place it in exact time (at the time) so it will be too late ...