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AUDUSD might be a perfect buy trade if we get from the market what we want. There are plenty of opportunities so don’t force things. I would like to see another push lower, creating a false break on the H4 chart. Divergence is already there but there is a pretty good chance that we will see another leg down and this bullish divergence to be re-created. If that happens, simply look for breakout of the down trend line and last high, followed by pullbacks where I want to long.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Recovers on Oil, RBA; More Weakness to Come
The so-called aussie consolidated above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, with more weakness likely to come if it closes below this level.
The pair failed to close below the 61.8% Fibonacci from the January to April rally ($0.7212) on Thursday.
Positive comments on Australia’s inflation outlook by the Reserve Bank of Australia's John Edwards in an interview in the Wall Street Journal boosted the Australian dollar, as he said that that there was no urgency to restore inflation to target, adding that inflationary expectations remain anchored.
A jump in oil prices also helped to increase the demand for higher-yielding currencies.
AUD/USD traded around $0.7230 on Friday, with a strong resistance at $0.7242. Any break above this level would take the pair towards the next resistance at $0.7259, which is the five-day moving average.
On the other side, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.7212 provides immediate support and any break below this level would take the pair to the next support at $0.7176.
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I think that the price will reach 0.76628 level. After that, the price will return to the level of 0.74655 or further.
AUD/USD forecast for the week of August 1, and 2016