Current short term Forecast
Well, the asset moves as I’ve predicted. I think that I can earn even more on usdchf! Definitely, the show must go on =)
There is a bearish trend developing on USD/JPY pair.
I suppose that the price will turn after reaching the 107,67 level.
I think that usdjpy asset will go down.
Setups: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD
EUR/USD: We are paring back our bearish view in the short-term. Small basing candles point to a squeeze higher in range. Overall we are bearish and would prefer to fade upticks against resistance in the 1.1350 area. Our downside targets are towards 1.1125 and then 1.0990.
USD/JPY: Consecutive topping candles have prompted us to turn bearish. A low close today would add to our bearish conviction towards targets near 108.20. Below 108.20 would point lower towards our next targets near 106.40 and then 105.20.
GBP/USD: Thursday’s topping signal ahead of resistance in the 1.4680 area has prompted us to turn bearish in the short term. An increase in trade volumes would encourage our bearish view towards our targets in the 1.4340 area.
AUD/USD: Small basing candles signal a breather from recent weakness. We are sticking with our bearish view following the close below 0.7260, the 200-dma. Our targets are towards 0.7040 and then the 0.6825 year-to-date lows.
NZD/USD: No change. Low volumes along with the recent uptick help to keep us bearish. We are looking for a move below 0.6710 low to signal lower towards targets near 0.6665 and then 0.6545.
USD/CAD: No change. The break above the 1.3015 range highs has prompted us to pare back our bearish view in the short term. Risk is a squeeze higher towards 1.3220 before sellers emerge.
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
EUR/USD: Bearish: Next key level at 1.1140/45. [No change in view].
Momentum indicators continue to deteriorate and the prospect for the current bearish phase to extend lower to the next key level at 1.1140/45 is not high. Unless there is a clear break below 1.1180 within these couple of days, a move back above 1.1295 is enough to indicate that a short-term low is in place.
GBP/USD: Shift from bullish to neutral: Bearish only if below 1.4400.
GBP rallied strongly last week to touch a high of 1.4663 but the up-move was quickly reversed. The break back below 1.4485 suggests that a short-term top is in place. While the rapid drop does not bode well for GBP in the coming days, the current movement is viewed as part of a corrective pull-back and not the start of a sustained down-move. However, a break of the major 1.4400 support would be a clear indication that GBP is ready to move lower towards the mid-May low of 1.4333 and possibly to the test the rising trend-line at 1.4235. Overall, this pair is expected to be on defensive unless it can reclaim 1.4580 within the next few days.
AUD/USD: Neutral: In a lower range of 0.7150/0.7350. [No change in view].
There is not much to add as AUD traded mostly sideways last Friday. The outlook is still viewed as neutral but we are shading the expected sideway trading range lower to 0.7150/0.7350 (from 0.7200/0.7400 previously).
NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.6690/0.6845 range. [No change in view].
There Is no change to the current neutral view and we continue to expect broad sideway trading within a 0.6690/0.6845 range.
USD/JPY: Shift from bullish to neutral: Pull-back has room to extend lower to 108.40/45.
The bullish phase that started two weeks ago ended abruptly yesterday when 109.20 was breached. The current movement is viewed as a corrective pull-back which has scope to extend lower to 108.40/45. Resistance is at 110.00 and the recent high near 110.60 is unlikely to come under threat, at least not for the next several days.
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
EUR/USD: Bearish: To take partial profit at 1.1055.
EUR finally broke below the 1.1180 support and exceeded the 1.1140 target. The current movement is likely the start of the next leg lower and from here; we are aiming for a move to the mid-March low of 1.1055. This is a rather strong support and those who are short from last Monday should look to cover half of their position at this level.
GBP/USD: Neutral: Outlook is still deemed as neutral.
We shifted to a neutral stance yesterday and were of the view that only a break below 1.4400 would indicate the start of a bearish phase in GBP. The rapid recovery that took out 1.4580 suggests that the downward pressure has eased. While a move above last week’s 1.4663 top would not be surprising, the month’s high at 1.4770 is not expected to come into the picture for now. To put it another way, the outlook for this pair is still deemed as neutral.
AUD/USD: Neutral: In a lower range of 0.7150/0.7350.
While the undertone for AUD is weak, lackluster momentum indicators continue to suggest that the current weakness is unlikely to be sustained. Overall, we prefer to hold a neutral view for now and would reassess our view if there is clear move beyond the current expected 0.7150/0.7350 range.
NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.6690/0.6845 range.
NZD dipped to a low of 0.6706 before rebounding quickly. There is no change to our neutral view and we continue to expect this pair trade within a 0.6690/0.6845 range for now.
USD/JPY; Neutral: Bullish only if above 110.60.
We shifted from a bullish to neutral stance yesterday and were of the view that the pull-back has scope to extend lower to 108.40/45. However, the surprising rapid and sharp recovery suggests the short-term pressure has swung back to the upside. That said, only a clear break above 110.60 would indicate that USD is heading higher in the coming days.
Setups: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD
EUR/USD: The break below the 1.1180 lows has prompted us to re-establish a bearish view. A move below our initial targets near 1.1125 would signal lower towards the 1.0990 area.
USD/JPY: We are bearish against the 111.90 range highs and look for a move lower towards initial targets near 108.20. Below 108.20 would signal further downside towards our next targets in the 106.40 area and then 105.20.
USD/CHF: We are neutral and would prefer to buy dips towards support in the 0.9835 area (100/200-dma). Our upside targets are towards parity and then the 1.0100 area.
AUD/USD: Small signs of seller capitulation signal a breather within the context of the overall bearish trend. While price closes below 0.7255, the 200dma we look for a move towards 0.7040 and then the 0.6825 year-to-date lows.
NZD/USD: We are overall bearish and look for further downside towards targets near 0.6665 and then 0.6545.
USD/CAD: We are looking for a low close to endorse the succession of small topping candles on the daily plot and encourage us to re-establish a bearish view. Downside targets would be towards 1.3015 and then 1.2880.
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The following are BMO's latest forecasts for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and EUR/JPY.