Forex Analytics By ForexMart - page 2
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January 6: Fundamental Analysis
The stock market drama of China had a forthright influence on the currencies comportment. The industrial sector business behavior of China surmount the PMI fall to 48.2 against anticipated of 48.9. A recently developed wave of solicitude with regard to the Chinese economy state and its probable effect on global GDP was instigated by ten (10) consecutive months of downfall. Associated to this fact, the Middle East incompatible growth where Saudi Arabia detached diplomatic correlation with Iran, evoked an intense wave of risk negation.
The initial inflation data of Germany in December reflected poor results as 0,2% versus the forecasted median of 0,3%. The statistics of USA is likewise unsatisfying. Inferring a business activity deceleration, the industrial sector ISM has been beneath 50% for two (2) months. Since June 2009, the index dropped to its lowest level in December. The currency pair EURO/USD reflected a decrease.
The volume of mortgage approvals of UK in November 2015 reached out to 70.4 thousand which is 0.77% greater than the preceding month and 18.81% greater than in November 2014. The primary growth driver in the real estate sector is that mortgage market and we expected the construction sector of PMI inside the concurrence forecast which may give some assistance for the Cable in sight of the positive momentum mentioned above. At the level of 57,8, the data came out versus the forecasted 56,0. Nevertheless, the currency pair GBP/USD descended by the end of the trades.
The safe-haven assets were stabilized as the world stock indices slumped. It benefited yen the most. Yet the line up of forces in the foreign exchange market was modified by the succeeding USD purchases. However, the pair dropped again after a scant rectification.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 7
In five (5) months, creating a protracted trouncing streak, the New Zealand Dollar dropped down for five (5) consecutive days in opposition to its US counterpart. Through the countenance of a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, prices created a binary pinnacle, affirmed on a break of an ascending trendline stipulated from mid-November.
Through a break on a quotidian closing basis, the 61.8% Fibonacci growth gives way for a challenge of the 76.4% level at 0.6525 as the near-term support is at 0.6593. On the other hand, a reversal over the 50% Fibonacci at 0.6649 embedded the way for a challenge of the 38.2% expansion at 0.6704.
The attainable trading scope turns out to be overly strait at 56 pips to give grounds for obtaining a trade considering an ATR reading in excess of 70 and our predilection for stop-losses triggered on a quotidian close. Keeping that in mind, we will stay around on the sidelines temporarily and look forward for further congenial chance to present itself.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 8
By this time, the currency pair USD/JPY has decreased as much as 314 pips on the week as it is currently running on its fifth consecutive day downtrend. In view of that fact, the pair has already snapped out below today's S4 pivot occurred at 117.94 by the US session open. Through this period, prices have decreased an additional 62 pips to the standing quotidian low at 117.32. Prices have been recurred back and are now trading close the S4 pivot from this point. Traders who have bearish momentum can have the chance of getting fresh opportunities to sell the market if the price movement stays below resistance.
Expecting for a break off to the present breakout state over the S3 pivot seen at 118.19, traders may start as in the event of a price turnaround that supports US dollar in opposition to the Yen. Although a transition to this point would not be counted as a trend reversal, a retreat within today's pivot scope would open up the USD/JPY to initiate challenging values of resistance. The R3 resistance pivot took place at a price of 118.70 and it should be notable that current trading range scales 50 pips.
At present, reading at +2.173, the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) for the USD/JPY pair has also attained an extremity. This reading can be an aid to certify the present downtrend in the market when applied as a contrarian Index. Traders should also keep an eye on this value when the USD/JPY starts to strive for a reversal. It may indicate a transition in the current market state if there would be any decline in sentiment from the pair's current extreme.
Fundamental Analysis: January 11, 2016
The Chinese stock exchanges trading suppression and low-priced oil has been the main factors that supported the euro and yen as the Chinese market subsides much more than 7%. Amidst the international market's negative perception, the Fed vulnerable minutes and also the poor labor market data, the dollar still undergone hardships by means of an advancement. The US provided employment outside the agrarian sector deliverance. The statistics show that the quantity of employees reached 295 thousand, much higher than the expected 200 thousand.
The conflict between the major rivals which is the euro and the dollar still proceeded. We have an idea that the present growth of euro appears to be more similar to a short-term rectification whilst the dollar stays on a horse. The currency pair was given nearly no support from the macroeconomic data which had the compounded background. The EUR/USD pair heightened by the end of the trades.
In the midst of the main currencies, the pound was the primary outsider. For 11 years, the oil prices fall over poorly wherein the Cable has been entirely responsive to it lately. Generally, the pair stays beneath sturdy pressure, though the Sterling was somewhat corrected after the poor US data. The trade balance is -10,64B against the forecasted -10,50B according to the UK. The pound/dollar pair finished the trades with a decline.
Concurrently, Japan did not bring out essential reports. The main driver for the yen is the dollar dynamics. The USD/JPY pair aggressively dropped by the end of the trading day.
Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: January 12
In the onset of 2016, the tension in the global economy comes up frequently as the Yen stabilizes. Remarkably, the commodity currencies have been impaired sharply while the JPY has increased by ~2.5% to begin the year against US dollar. The global economy is in a vague state as well as the USD/JPY pair. Many look forward to a rally in risk, though it is just a temporary rally since we have been trained like Pavlov's dog to hope for a rebound when disfavor of risk takes place in equities and JPY. Nevertheless, the Fed is finished mitigating and is indeed being strict. And the veracity about China is that we can not anticipate how unpleasant things are over there with assurance.
The main point is, USD/JPY has reflected a habit of triangulating. This may not be an issue for short-term traders who are enthusiastic on daily targets and nullification levels. Nevertheless, multi-month triangle pattern can be disappointing and worth keeping away from or making a shorter-term trading plan. If a triangle should play out once more, support should grasp at the August 24 low of 116.07 whilst the upside raise towards 61.8% retracement of the November-January range were close to 121.75
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Technical Analysis for CAD/JPY:January 15
The currency pair CAD/JPY had a drawback and is currently experiencing resistance at the level of 82.25 zone, since it hitted support around the 81.50 level. This is not totally surprising, whereas it's right smack at a previous support, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and 100 SMA roadblocks. Expecting the Canadian dollar to make more losses against the yen? In case you assume that CAD/JPY is set to generate new lows, a small trade with stops on top of the SMA could give you satisfactory pips. However,provided that you are one of the Canadian dollar bulls, you might as well wait for a break over the SMAs on the 1-hour time frame.
Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: January 18
The disturbance in the Chinese equity indices and economy led the currency pair AUD/USD to close aggressively low in the past week. Added pressure on the commodity-linked currencies like Aussie was given by the descending crude oil prices. Other way to put it is investors were shedding risky assets.
n the past week, the selling pressure was sturdy enough to take out the September primary lowest point at .6908. The pair is being carried away by news thus short-covering can happen at any time. January 28, Monday is a U.S. bank holiday, hence, this could support and harm volatility.
Traders in the U.S will get an opportunity to respond to news from China late Monday or early Tuesday for everyone else. China will provide its recent quarterly report of Gross Domestic Product. It is anticipated to reflect an economy growth at a rate of 6.9%. From 6.2% to 6.0%, the Industrial Production is expected to reflect a minimal depreciation. Meanwhile, at 10.2%, fixed asset investment is expected to stay constant.
Fundamental Analysis: January 19, 2016
Though the volatility of the foreign exchange market heighten last week, it decreased on Monday. Other world stock exchanges fall down in the aftermath of the aggressive reduction of the oil price which became the primary volatility driver. In any case, the reports of the US haven't gone neglected. The statistics of the retail sales were exceedingly unsteady which cause the increase of pressure on the dollar. By 0.1% m/m, the retail sales decreased in December against the report of 0.0%, whereas the preceding value was 0.2%. The anticipated deceleration of the industrial sector business was 4.0 while its activity index dropped from 6.21 to 19.37.
There was a minimal volatility throughout the American session in the aftermath of Martin Luther King Day celebrated in the United States.
The Euro zone satisfied the market with a stable statistics of the trade balance. For more than 23.6 billion Euro, the net exports heightened in November which is only 17.4% the year before. In October 2015, the development rate of the trade surplus continue to exist at 7.58%. For the Gross Domestic Product of the Euro zone, the advancement of the development rate is a positive factor. The currency pair EUR/USD reduced a bit.
Traders spend much awareness to the debt market dynamics as there were no significant macroeconomics data issued in the UK. Comparative to their US and German counterparts, the 10-year UK government bonds yield has been declined, therefore leaving pressure on the pound. The growth of the GBP/USD pair subsequently reduced by the end of the trades.
Traders would rather choose Japanese yen as a funding currency while refraining from venturing into the risky assets. Nevertheless, the USD/JPY pair
reflected a little bit growth on Monday.
Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: January 20
The long-established safe-haven assets stayed even out of support. The Euro unsuccessfully lengthen its Friday gains. The pair signified an increase only by the end of the trades. When the Cable attempted to regain, the pair declined earlier assuming that there is a further pressure from the EUR/GBP cross dynamics which had displayed a marked decline. The Eurozone escalation increased in line with the expectations in December as stated by the Eurostat. From 0.1% in November, the escalation increased to 0.2% in December. The value correlates with the fundamental evaluation.
The initial support occurs at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The initial resistance lies at 1.1050, the succeeding one is at 1.1150.
There is an unconfirmed and a sturdy buy signal. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen reflect a straight motion and establish a "Dead Cross". The ascending motion will be until the price is on top of the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a definite state and the price is increasing.
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The pair may move to 1.0800 and 1.0730 soon and the descending motion will proceed.