JPY news - page 2
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USD/JPY Has Not Peaked Yet; Where To Target? - Nomura USD/JPY has been trading in a narrow range around 120 so far in 2015, notes Nomura
"After appreciating strongly in 2013 and 2014, the pace of USD/JPY appreciation slowed as we expected. However, we still do not think USD/JPY has peaked. As the Fed is finally about to embark on its tightening cycle, we expect USD/JPY to resume appreciating toward 130 in 2016," Nomura projects.
"Given monetary policy divergence and expected strong JPY selling by Japanese investors and businesses, we expect USD/JPY to keep trending higher
We are currently flat in JPY positions, but into 2016 we recommend keeping a USD/JPY long bias," Nomura advises.
Citi Trade Of The Week: Sell EUR/JPY Targeting 127 Currency investors should consider selling EUR/JPY this week, advises CitiFX in its weekly FX pick to clients.
"...Although this is a weekly position, for longer-term investors we would note that if the ECB remains credible, there should be room for additional EUR weakness on Real Money adjusting benchmarks, renewed corporate issuance and further investor displacement all of which are EUR negative.
...Since we doubt that this week s BoJ speakers will signal imminent easing, JPY is likely to benefit from the anticipation on ECB action. Citi expects the BoJ to take action at the late January meeting, but it should be premature for investors to position ahead of this, particularly before the publication of the Tankan report in mid-December. While investor risk appetite seems to be improving, coming Fed lift-off may govern further gains, which would be supportive for JPY," Citi says as a rationale behind this call.
in line with this view, Citi recommends selling EUR/JPY from 129.85, with a stop at 131, and a target at 127.
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USD/JPY: Pair Rises, Stable Above ¥123 The greenback remained bid on Wednesday and traders are now watching Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen's speech, started before the US opening bell.
Earlier in the session, the ADP employment report showed a 217,000 job gain in November, up from 182,000 in October. The greenback jumped after the results as it paved the way for a strong payrolls report on Friday. The USD/JPY pair was seen trading with mild gains around ¥123.30 shortly after these data.
In addition, labor market costs in Q3 grew by 1.8% after 1.4% previously, according to fresh data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Moreover, the ISM's non-manufacturing report is due on Thursday, while ISM's manufacturing PMI released on Tuesday dropped notably from 50.1 to 48.6, ending up in contraction territory. The odds for a December rate hike declined from 75% to 70% after the disappointing result.
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USD/JPY Outlook: Greenback Reluctant to Rise, Calm Week Ahead Friday's positive US payrolls helped the pair to retake the barrier, although the bullish momentum seemed weak. The US economy added 211,000 jobs in November, which surpassed expectations of a 200,000 print. In addition, the unemployment rate remained at 5.0%.
"This is a very strong report and the broad-based improvement will likely add to the Fed's confidence in the outlook for growth and inflation, providing them with the requisite justification to pull the trigger on raising rates at the mid-December FOMC meeting. In this regard, we expect the Fed to deliver a 25bps in the fed funds rates when they meet later this month, lifting the policy target range to 0.25% to 0.50%," Millan L. B. Mulraine, deputy chief US macro strategist at TD Securities USA said on Friday.
As there are nearly no US macro economic figures in the coming week, apart from Friday's US retail sales and consumer confidence, the markets will most likely be preparing for the next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
From the yen point of view, Japan final readings of GDP for the third quarter are due on Tuesday, along with the GDP deflator and trade balance, with Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda's speech following shortly.
In addition, US yields rose sharply in the previous week as a result of the timid ECB action, and that is expected to keep the USD/JPY pair bid as the greenback is sensitive to yields' differential.
However, the greenback is somewhat reluctant to rise toward ¥124 and it looks like the pair will end this year below cycle highs of ¥125.40. The same goes for US stocks, mainly the SPX index, which corrected 50 points lower in the previous week and record highs above 2,140 seem to be too far away to be conquered this year.
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USD/JPY forecast for the week of December 14, 2015 The USD/JPY pair broke down during the course of the week, slamming into the 121 handle. We are starting to approach a pretty significant support barrier though, so we do not think that this market continues to go much lower. We are simply waiting for some type of supportive candle in order to start buying, but recognize that it may not happen on the weekly timeframe. We may actually have to look for daily candles or even lower time frames in order to start going long again. With no interest in selling at the moment.
JPY: Risk-Aversion Fueled Rally; What's Next? - BNPP The BoJ’s quarterly Tankan survey showed capital expenditure plans largely unchanged from Q3, while the outlook for large manufacturing and non-manufacturing was weaker than expected pointing to a lukewarm economy, notes BNP Paribas.
"One factor likely weighing on the outlook is sluggish demand from emerging economies and commodity exporters, factors that have been supportive for the JPY via a weaker risk sentiment," BNPP adds.
"Following last week’s risk-off move, long JPY is now the largest long position in G10 FX, according to BNP Paribas Positioning Analysis.
We think the driver of USDJPY upside will be rising US rates as the Fed tightens at a faster pace than the market currently discounts. Widening rate differentials should, in turn, continue to motivate Japanese investors to look for higher returns abroad," BNPP argues.
Long USD/JPY remains one of BNPP's key views for 2016.
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USD/JPY: Next Short-Term Targets - Nomura
Nomura's call was for “wave-B/(2) rally to fail in 122.40/90 Fib zone”. "Even with the quick o/n spike, USD/JPY still held below key 123.60 resistance and sharply reversed; this reversal means the correction high is in place. Now our focus is on a resumption lower first to 120.30," Nomura projects.
"S/t, the next support zone is near ~120.30 where old pivots, an uptrend line and symmetry target all align. A more aggressive extension target is 118.18 and this will come in to play sub 120.30.
Near-term resistance is 121.60 and a break of 121.00 can usher the move lower to 120.30," Nomura adds.
USD/JPY: Dollar Stays Above ¥121 Ahead of GDP Data The greenback continued to weaken against commodity-linked currencies, but the USD/JPY pair managed to stabilize above the ¥121 mark and the pair was trading flat on Tuesday, waiting for some impetus to move.
Today's US data will bring the third estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter. The economic output should decline from 2.1% to 1.9%, while the GDP price index is projected to remain at 1.3% and the PCE index will most likely decrease to 2.9% from 3.0% previously. The data will be followed by existing home sales.
"Coming off the first Fed rate rise in 9 years the jury still remains out as to whether the Fed has erred given continued weakness in the manufacturing sector of the US economy, and weakness in commodity prices. The latest Q3 GDP revisions for the US economy are the latest in rear view mirror data, telling us more about where we’ve been as opposed to where we are headed," Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK said on Tuesday.
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USD/JPY: Yen Hits Daily Highs After Kuroda Speech Japanese yen added small gains on Thursday, after Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the measures adopted by the central bank helped to boost the world's third largest economy in its fight with the 15-year long deflation.
Amid holiday low volume and tight range trading the yen managed to reverse from its overnight lows of nearly ¥121 and hit its daily high of ¥120.43 after Kuroda's speech.
Kuroda emphasized that one of the most successful parts of the BoJ's policy making moves in 2015 was curb of the inflation, putting the CPI in the safer harbor.
"Japan's economy is thus well on track to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent while continuing its moderate recovery... the Bank does not consider positive inflation to be a goal in and of itself; rather, we are seeking to catalyze a benign combination of rising prices, improving corporate profits, and increases in employment and wages," Kuroda said at the meeting of Councillors of Japan Business Federation in Tokyo.
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Japan National CPI for November: 0.3% y/y (expected +0.3%)
Japan national inflation data for November (and Tokyo CPI for December - the capital city data is available a month earlier than the National CPI)
National CPI for November 0.3% y/y,
National CPI excluding Fresh Food 0.1% y/y,
National CPI excluding Food, Energy 0.9% y/y,
Tokyo CPI for December 0.0% y/y
Tokyo CPI excluding Fresh Food 0.1% y/y
Tokyo CPI excluding Food, Energy 0.6% y/y
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Later today the Bank of Japan will publish its own inflation data - its a measure of national CPI excluding food and energy
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ps. Japanese markets are open today, here's a snapshot of some of the (very small) ranges so far taken just prior to this data release (just after this data release I'm toddling off):
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