Best Alternative Solutions Comparatively - page 32
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there's too much history between hurst & finance . so basically first proof (i think)that price movement in financial market is not pure random (as brownian motion - aka random walk - aka efficient market hypothesis) was done by measuring hurst (rescaled range analysis) . if hurst is under 1.5 then movement has memory (aka trend) & one can profit by following it & u can find papers about this concept & how it can improve performance of forecasting! i don't know any other tool for measuring long memory .
but to answer to your actual question , if u follow this path u will realize it's close to impossible trading price movements (just from multifractal structure point of view) but if u're wanna trade volatility (some kinda grid system) this can help !
u can read these :
The (Mis)Behaviour of Markets: A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin and Reward by benoit mandelbrot ---- easy to read
fractal market analysis : applying chaos to investment by edgar peters ---- pretty technical
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-range_dependence
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis
or just move on
KumoBreake
Thanks for the detailed explanation and guide help towards finding the best adaptable possibilities,we all needs more research and debate concerning immediate need regarding some system,so we are trying for,your interesting and expert comments are welcome in future too.
regards
Hello again. I did a mistake. The Indikator is also a variation of BB , its the "bollinger band ma" which is slightly different and smoother. Anyway the principle is like waiting for the candles piercing through an ichimoku cloud e.g. and you can easily set the stop on the other side.
Of course you should add one Indikator which can filter out some signals. Like QQE adv indicator for example https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/178927/page5 using the 50 middle line cross for confirmation. It is not the bottom, or top you seek but the movement and direction. Of course you can use different Indicators like CCI or something whichever fits best for you.
Another way to avoid more false signals is getting on a higher time frame above 1 minute because there are bigger/longer movements with more inertia and less fuzzy price jumping. (also not trading on news)
Everything is possible and this was just an idea. Feel free to use a second BB ma with/and other band deviations to set your own rules/system. There are a lot of indicators in the elite/advanced section which can be helpful too. - The colored candles from my picture is from the LabTrend ver 4.02 which aids visually (setting risk factor 13). I dont even know what this indicator is doing/calculating, so i can not recommend using it. :D
good trades;
~myrx
Hi myrx
Thanks for taking interest and help suggestion some of your secrets :) we feel pleasure if you manag time for more light on with sample illustration that will be more understandable than words (as already you tried)
regards
Much to read here and I don't really get the point. Why do you wanna hedging, Dimitri? The BB-strategy seems ok so far, profitable. Why 8 trades, 4 bullish and 4 bearish? Is it your lucky number? The 8 in Chinese mythology means money, so 88 and 888 is even better.
Mathematics ;) on a low level, we call it 'Milchmädchenrechnung'. Buy low, Sell high, and these positions must have a distance more than double the spread, that's all. You need much much money hedging is worth to use because you earn money very slow. Save but extremely slow. That's why hedging is outdated for a few years.
Krelian
Your precious knowledge and expert wide-eyed required for to analyze different possibilities that leads us creating a trade able system.
as per my thinking i am not agree with that of 8 trades at a time 4 per each side but like to open one position in a maximum possible confirm way.
regards
Much to read here and I don't really get the point. Why do you wanna hedging, Dimitri? The BB-strategy seems ok so far, profitable. Why 8 trades, 4 bullish and 4 bearish? Is it your lucky number? The 8 in Chinese mythology means money, so 88 and 888 is even better.
Mathematics ;) on a low level, we call it 'Milchmädchenrechnung'. Buy low, Sell high, and these positions must have a distance more than double the spread, that's all. You need much much money hedging is worth to use because you earn money very slow. Save but extremely slow. That's why hedging is outdated for a few years.
Dear Krelian99,
I have to clarify all points in order to avoid any misunderstanding and make our discussion basis on the "original logic".
All started with my request to make a "simple Expert Advisor" that could Keep opened opposite positions (without closing the previous position with the new opposite one). Our friend "mntiwana" has a contrary opinion. Making it short he says a) when you keep two opposite positions opened you hedge and this is loosing status, and b) as you have more positions opened, this is martingale which is also not profitable.
With both opinions i have serious objections.
First "hedge" is not said that is a losing combination ... as the dictionaries are saying "hedging" is a way to secure - lock the actual status of your trading .... if it is a loosing one and you hedge you lock LOSS ... if it is profitable and you hedge it you lock - secure profit ... so simple.
Second "martingale", it is not a martingale system because the size of every next position is the same as the previous one ...
I decided to make it easy and to leave for the future this type of "position management", and to continue with the other part which is the "profitable setups".
So must find setups that are "usually giving" as a result the Profitable Hedge Combinations, which are : a) Short position at a Higher level than Long and b) Long position at a lower level than Short position. You will tell me that these two are the same ... as already explained they are not equal from the fact that the one starts from a short position and the other from a long one.
So everybody who wants to give any idea and share his experience is welcome ....
Best Regards
Dimitri
are u looking for some kinda grid trading ? i believe theoretically it can be profitable
Dear KumoBreake,
Focusing in the "profitable setups", definitely we are not going to examine for now "grid" or any other position management. Let's focus on these "profitable setups".
Best Regards
Dimitri
Hello again. I did a mistake. The Indikator is also a variation of BB , its the "bollinger band ma" which is slightly different and smoother. Anyway the principle is like waiting for the candles piercing through an ichimoku cloud e.g. and you can easily set the stop on the other side.
Of course you should add one Indikator which can filter out some signals. Like QQE adv indicator for example https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/178927/page5 using the 50 middle line cross for confirmation. It is not the bottom, or top you seek but the movement and direction. Of course you can use different Indicators like CCI or something whichever fits best for you.
Another way to avoid more false signals is getting on a higher time frame above 1 minute because there are bigger/longer movements with more inertia and less fuzzy price jumping. (also not trading on news)
Everything is possible and this was just an idea. Feel free to use a second BB ma with/and other band deviations to set your own rules/system. There are a lot of indicators in the elite/advanced section which can be helpful too. - The colored candles from my picture is from the LabTrend ver 4.02 which aids visually (setting risk factor 13). I dont even know what this indicator is doing/calculating, so i can not recommend using it. :D
good trades;
~myrx
Dear myrx,
welcome back, could you please share your indicators, because i have used in my example the simple and standard Bollinger Bands include in MT4.
Thank you again for your participation
Best Regards
Dimitri
there's too much history between hurst & finance . so basically first proof (i think)that price movement in financial market is not pure random (as brownian motion - aka random walk - aka efficient market hypothesis) was done by measuring hurst (rescaled range analysis) . if hurst is under 1.5 then movement has memory (aka trend) & one can profit by following it & u can find papers about this concept & how it can improve performance of forecasting! i don't know any other tool for measuring long memory .
but to answer to your actual question , if u follow this path u will realize it's close to impossible trading price movements (just from multifractal structure point of view) but if u're wanna trade volatility (some kinda grid system) this can help !
u can read these :
The (Mis)Behaviour of Markets: A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin and Reward by benoit mandelbrot ---- easy to read
fractal market analysis : applying chaos to investment by edgar peters ---- pretty technical
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-range_dependence
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis
or just move on
Dear KumoBreake,
Thank you so much for your detailed and more scientific approach to the matter. There are many points of view on the material "Financial Markets".
I personally accept those that "brinks to a result", all others can make us thinking and amplify - multiply the point of views ... and if you want my scientific description of Financial Markets Price Movement are based a) Frequency Change and b) Main Direction ........ But it is much better to leave scientific approaches and concentrate on the "Profitable Setups" .....
Just to give a theoretic example, as already said we could consider Fractals ... Low Fractal to open a LONG Position and the next High Fractal for a SHORT opening position ... so theoretically we should have a LONG position at a Lower level than the SHORT one.
Thank you for your reply and we are waiting for any thoughts.
Best Regards
Dimitri
Dear Krelian99,
I have to clarify all points in order to avoid any misunderstanding and make our discussion basis on the "original logic".
All started with my request to make a "simple Expert Advisor" that could Keep opened opposite positions (without closing the previous position with the new opposite one). Our friend "mntiwana" has a contrary opinion. Making it short he says a) when you keep two opposite positions opened you hedge and this is loosing status, and b) as you have more positions opened, this is martingale which is also not profitable.
With both opinions i have serious objections.
First "hedge" is not said that is a losing combination ... as the dictionaries are saying "hedging" is a way to secure - lock the actual status of your trading .... if it is a loosing one and you hedge you lock LOSS ... if it is profitable and you hedge it you lock - secure profit ... so simple.
Second "martingale", it is not a martingale system because the size of every next position is the same as the previous one ...
I decided to make it easy and to leave for the future this type of "position management", and to continue with the other part which is the "profitable setups".
So must find setups that are "usually giving" as a result the Profitable Hedge Combinations, which are : a) Short position at a Higher level than Long and b) Long position at a lower level than Short position. You will tell me that these two are the same ... as already explained they are not equal from the fact that the one starts from a short position and the other from a long one.
So everybody who wants to give any idea and share his experience is welcome ....
Best Regards
Dimitri
Dear Dimitri
Till when ever you will not be satisfied,at least i can not go ahead,at first tell me and explain me with a illustration picture of any TF and of any symbol.how you declare and decide Higher level and Lower level,from where you take start.
second point,when you have 2 opposite open positions (at same time) at different levels (high/low) and the price will go either any one side even 1000 pips,you are in loss for 6 pips and or 60 pips (in 4 digit broker with spread 3 per trade and with 5 digit broker with spread 30 pips)-i suppose spread as 3 pips and 30 pips........ you are in loss till you stop/close any one of your position.but with zero profit until you with draw one of your position....... always one of your trade will be in loss and one in profit equally.you only get loss for spread as a result.
regards
Dear Krelian99,
I have to clarify all points in order to avoid any misunderstanding and make our discussion basis on the "original logic".
All started with my request to make a "simple Expert Advisor" that could Keep opened opposite positions (without closing the previous position with the new opposite one). Our friend "mntiwana" has a contrary opinion. Making it short he says a) when you keep two opposite positions opened you hedge and this is loosing status, and b) as you have more positions opened, this is martingale which is also not profitable.
With both opinions i have serious objections.
First "hedge" is not said that is a losing combination ... as the dictionaries are saying "hedging" is a way to secure - lock the actual status of your trading .... if it is a loosing one and you hedge you lock LOSS ... if it is profitable and you hedge it you lock - secure profit ... so simple.
Second "martingale", it is not a martingale system because the size of every next position is the same as the previous one ...
I decided to make it easy and to leave for the future this type of "position management", and to continue with the other part which is the "profitable setups".
So must find setups that are "usually giving" as a result the Profitable Hedge Combinations, which are : a) Short position at a Higher level than Long and b) Long position at a lower level than Short position. You will tell me that these two are the same ... as already explained they are not equal from the fact that the one starts from a short position and the other from a long one.
So everybody who wants to give any idea and share his experience is welcome ....
Best Regards
Dimitri