Daily Market Analysis by FxGrow - page 23
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Daily Market Analysis – 21st Sept, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
Greek Elections - Alexis Tsipras secures clear victory
Alexis Tsipras’s has secured a clear victory in Sunday’s Greek general election, with more than 90 percent of the votes counted.
Syriza party got 35.5 per cent of the vote, giving it 145 seats in the 300 member parliament, well ahead of the conservative New Democracy party which is on 75 seats.
This is the third time Greeks have voted this year after the January elections which saw Alexis Tsipras coming to power, a referendum in July which was to reject the reform proposals of its European creditors and this time.
Turnout in this poll was just over 55%, down from 63% in January and low by Greek standards.
"This result does not belong to Syriza. This result belongs to the working classes of this country, the people who fight for a better tomorrow, who dream of a better tomorrow and this is something that we will achieve through a lot of hard work" - Alexis Tsipras.
"The mandate that the Greek people have given is a crystal clear mandate to get rid of the regime of corruption and vested issues. We will show how effective we will be. We will make Greece a stronger place for the weak and vulnerable, a fairer place" - Alexis Tsipras.
Eurozone officials have welcomed the re-election of Mr. Tsipras as the PM of the country after he secured third bail-out deal for Greece in five years.
"Now a solid government ready to deliver is needed quickly" - President of the European parliament, German Martin Schulz.
"From Monday, we are ready to collaborate to implement the programme to reform the Greek economy" - Italy's La Stampa.
"Given how challenging the bail-out agenda is between now and year-end, a return of the previous coalition isn't great news" - Mujtaba Rahman, head of Europe practice at the Eurasia Group.
US Dollar has staged a strong recovery post FOMC after Fed decided to keep its interest rates unchanged. Fed showed increasing concerns over the negative impacts of the recent global financial market volatility, as well as rapid slowdown in China and other emerging markets, on growth and inflation outlook.
EURUSD is trading at 1.1310 in the early Asian trading session while USDCHF is stable at 0.9683
Asian Stocks have dropped on Monday as a ripple effect of the Fed's decisions to hold its interest rates. Investors are worried about the strength of the Chinese economy.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dropped 1.39% to 21,638.22 points shortly after the opening bell, while mainland China's benchmark Shanghai Composite fell 0.64% to 3,077.97 points.
The Australian S&P/ASX 200 index dropped 2.44% to 5,044.40 points in Sydney, with almost all 200 stocks on the index trading lower for the day.
Crude oil is trading lower at $45.03 amid ongoing concerns over sluggish global growth.
Gold is trading higher in the Europe at 1137.24, while Silver is stable at 15.11
21st Sept 2015 – 03:53hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 21st Sept, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
EURAUD - breakout from the consolidation will indicate the direction of movement
Since last week EURAUD can't go away from the level of 1.5770. The downward movement stops at support 1.5660, and move up stops at resistance 1.5940. Dynamic upward candle, which took place on Thursday after the Fed decision also does not help with consolidation breakout. If break below that consolidation will be successfully next support on 1.5600 has a chance to cause a rebound. On the other hand, the break above resistance 1.5940 will take price first to 1.6160 and next to 1.6600.
Wider view, interval W1
At weekly interval we can indicate another significant levels. After breaking down the 1.5600 level, the downward movement may reduce price to 1.3800. But break above the level 1.6600 will bring the price to 1.7400.
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 21st Sept, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
USDJPY waiting for the triangle breakout
Since one month USDJPY moves in the triangle formation. Its range of movement is clearly slowing down. Therefore, the breakout of the triangle in one direction will bring dynamic movement. Currently, the lower arm of the triangle is 119.20, and the upper arm 120.90. If the lower arm of the triangle breaks below, downward movement will lead price to 118.30. If that support also will not stop the falls the next target of downward move is the August minimum at 116.10.
However, if bulls break above the upper arm of the triangle the next levels of resistance will be located at 122.00 and 125.20. Successfull break above that levels will confirm that the correction on USDJPY has now been completed and the price goes back to the uptrend.
Wider view, interval W1
Since 2011 USDJPY moves in upward trend. At this time bears failed to correct upward movement even on the smallest Fibonacci level of 23.6%. If falls finally comes, level 114.00 which is 23.6% fibo will be the first target.
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Market Analysis – 22nd Sept, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
Chinese economy weaker, but far from collapse
In China economy is not as weak as it looks according to a survey done by a New York research group. In a report published by the CBB International in the aftermath of the Stock market plunge in China and its currency devaluation Capital expenditure has rebounded and services sector is showing signs of growth.
"Perceptions of China may be more thoroughly divorced from facts on the ground than at any time in our nearly five years of surveying the economy” - CBB President Leland Miller.
“Global sentiment on China has veered sharply bearish — too bearish. While we have long cautioned clients against relying on rosy official views of the Chinese economy, we believe sentiment has swung substantially too far in the opposite direction” - CBB President Leland Miller.
"The best situation for most economies is stable and low inflation. China appears to be enjoying exactly that, notwithstanding the widespread fear of deflation” - CBB International.
Asian shares rose on Tuesday and the dollar held steady as U.S. markets bounced back and the European Central Bank said it was prepared to ease monetary policy further - Reuters.
European markets are seen steady, with financial spread betters expecting Britain's FTSE 100 (FTSE) and France's CAC 40 (FCHI) to open flat and Germany's DAX (GDAXI) to start the day up 0.1 percent - Reuters.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (MIAPJ0000PUS) was up 0.4 percent at 0039 EDT. Australia (AXJO) advanced 0.3 percent and South Korea (KS11) almost 1 percent, but most Southeast Asian markets retreated. Japanese markets are shut through Wednesday - Reuters.
In Switzerland’s trade balance fell to 2.869B, from 3.579B in the preceding month according to a report released by the Federal Statistical Office.
Global investors are awaiting Septembers Manufacturing PMI data from China and Europe today as markets in Japan are closed for the next three days.
European Central Bank and Bank of Japan dovish bias is expected to provide support to the markets. If ECB will extend its QE program beyond September 2016 EUR will come under pressure and slip below 1.1000
Crude oil is trading higher at $46.01 as investors are waiting for the weekly stockpiles report.
Gold is trading higher in the Europe at 1135.02, while Silver is up at 15.22
22nd Sept 2015 – 07:34hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 22nd Sept, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
EURUSD rebound from the resistance, target of falls 1.1090
Last Thursday EURUSD has reached to 1.1460 and that level cause rebound. The first support, which could stop the descent was the level of 1.1214 but bears broke below it. Another support which price is aiming is around 1.1145 - 1.1135. If the price reaches to that area and it will be breaking the next target of falls will be 1.1090. Since Thursday EURUSD also moves in a steep downward channel which reflects well on the strength of bears.
Wider view, interval D1
In 2015 EURUSD moves in the consolidation between the levels 1.1460 - 1.0460. Indicated top was a false break only for a while in August. And indicated bottom has been tested only once in March and in the following months the price stopped already at higher levels. The last important support is 1.0815.
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 22nd Sept, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
USDCAD – false break of consolidation lower limit
An interesting situation in the USDCAD. For a month price moved in the consolidation between resistance 1.3320 and support 1.3130. Last Friday there was an attempt to break below the support that lead the price to the level 1.3010. On that support bulls returned to the game. On the daily chart a long lower shadow appeared and USDCAD returned to the consolidation range. Currently, the price is moving to the upper limit of consolidation on the level 1.3320.
It is worth to note, that the USDCAD moves in a long-term uptrend, and often false breakout from the consolidation in one direction ends with a proper breakout in the opposite direction. If such situation will take place it will follow the main trend. A minimum target of upward movement is a level 1.3800.
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Market Analysis – 23rd Sept, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
China manufacturing PMI falls to lowest in more than 6 years
Activity in China's manufacturing sector unexpectedly shrank to a 6½-year low in September, indicating a sharper slowdown in the world's second-largest economy that could spell more turmoil for financial markets.
The preliminary Markit China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 47.0 in September, the worst since March 2009 and below market expectations of 47.5 and August's final 47.3. Levels below 50 signify a contraction.
Global investors and policymakers are on edge over China after the U.S. central bank last week held off from raising interest rates, saying it was unsure if international problems and China's slowdown in particular, will hurt the U.S. recovery - Reuters.
"The weaker-than-expected PMI suggested domestic and external demand remained sluggish. It's almost certain China's economic growth will slide below 7 percent in the second half of this year" - Minsheng Securities.
"The principle reason for the weakening of manufacturing is tied to previous changes in factors related to external demand and prices" - Chief economist at Caixin Insight Group.
"Fiscal expenditures surged in August, pointing to stronger government efforts on the fiscal policy front. Patience may be needed for policies designed to promote stabilization to demonstrate their effectiveness" - Chief economist at Caixin Insight Group.
The Asian Development Bank has cut its estimate for China's growth to 6.8 percent for 2015. It expects the growth rate of the world's second largest economy will fall to 6.7 percent in 2016.
Mario Draghi, European Central Bank President, will speak on monetary policy before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Committee providing insight into whether the central bank is contemplating expanding its bond buying and if so, when.
The Eurozone continues to experience extremely low levels of inflation and unemployment is very high.
The UK manufacturing sector growth stalled for the first time in more than two years, with a stronger Pound and weak exports weighing on the sector's margins and volumes.
The trade surplus in Switzerland contracted in August, as the strength of the Swiss Franc hit demand in the European Union and China.
Crude oil is trading higher at $46.80 as market survey points to fall of crude oil stocks.
Gold is trading lower in the Europe at 1127.06, while Silver is up at 14.79
23rd Sept 2015 – 09:00hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 23rd Sept, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
EURGBP breakout of the triangle with a range of 0.7060 decline
For a month EURGBP moves in a shape of downward triangle. This formation promises falls and it is in line with long-term downward trend. On Monday there was a break below of the triangle after a longer test of the level 0.7240. Support came to help bulls, which is located at the 0.7210 level. There was a rebound and return to the interior of the triangle.
If the rebound will be successful it may test level 0.7340, which is the top of the triangle. However, if in the near future the bulls will press harder break below the triangle will become a fact. Range of the falls will be equal to the height of formation. The target level after breaking the triangle will be 0.7060. Before that, supply will have to deal with more supports: 0.7210, 0.7160, 0.7100, 07040. Alternatively, if the triangle has been break above a nearest resistance is 0.7390.
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 23rd Sept, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
AUDNZD - a trend reversal or just a corrective rebound?
Since 4 months AUDNZD moves in a consolidation between 1.0900 and 1.1430. On August 24 there was a dynamic upward movement. Within a 30 minutes candle price moves up and fall about 900 pips. Since then the price has reduced the range of its movement. Right now it moves in the consolidation between 1.0900 and 1.1340. AUDNZD now rebounded from the resistance at the indicated level and is heading 1.0900.
Wider view, interval W1
Since 5 years AUDNZD moves in a downward trend but the minimum, which took place at the beginning of April this year, begins to indicate a possibility of trend reversal. Direction of breakout from flag will be very important. Flag is a pattern of trend continuation and it should be break above. Break above will give a chance even to trend reversal. However, if the flag breaks below, then this whole movement will take the form of a rebound and AUD/NZD will come back to the main trend (the downward one).
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 28th Sept, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
EURGBP - the appropriate breakout of the triangle up
On September 21 was a break below the triangle. However already the first support on 0.7200 mobilized bulls to buy and on next day there was a return to inside the triangle. Using the situation that on chart is formation fakey (false breakout) the bulls were attempted broke above the triangle. It was successful. Upward movement has been stopped at 0.7400 and currently the price is moving between the triangle and resistance. If break above the level 0.7400 will be successful the next target of upward movement is 0.7480. However, if bulls show the weakness the price should return to inside the triangle again.
Wider view, interval W1
Since 2009 EURGBP moves in a downtrend. In this time price has fallen from 0.9800 to 0.6940. Currently rebound is in progress and move up abolished only 23.6% of the last downward movement. Level 0.7650 could be tested which is 38.2% fibo. Earlier, the bulls will have to deal with some resistance: 0.7480, 0.7550, 0.7590. The strongest of the indicated resistance will be 0.7550, which marks the downward trendline.
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.