Daily Market Analysis by FxGrow - page 15
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Daily Market Analysis – 23rd July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Cuts Rates a Second Time
The Reserve Bank today reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.0 percent.
Global economic growth remains moderate, with only a gradual pickup in activity forecast. Recent developments in China and Europe led to heightened uncertainty and increased financial market volatility. Particular uncertainty remains around the impact of the expected tightening in US monetary policy - Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
New Zealand’s economy is currently growing at an annual rate of around 2.5 percent, supported by low interest rates, construction activity, and high net immigration - Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
The New Zealand dollar has declined significantly since April and, along with lower interest rates, has led to an easing in monetary conditions. While the currency depreciation will provide support to the export and import competing sectors, further depreciation is necessary given the weakness in export commodity prices - - Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
A reduction in the OCR is warranted by the softening in the economic outlook and low inflation. At this point, some further easing seems likely - Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Following the rate cut by the RBNZ New Zealand Dollar climbed to a one week high as NZDUSD touched a high of 0.6691 in the European trading session today.
Australian Dollar has declined over the week mainly led by a weakness in the commodity prices and as US economic data boosts expectations for higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
Greek parliament has approved the second package of reform measures required for getting the third bailout package of €86bn from the European Union.
The crucial vote saw 230 members voting in the favor, 63 members against it and 5 members abstained from the voting.
Following the vote EURUSD rose from a low of 1.0923 to trade at 1.0991 in the European trading session.
The Standard & Poor's rating agency has upgraded the credit rating of Greece from CCC- to CCC + with a stable outlook after Greece repaid the IMF and ECB.
"The upgrade reflects Greece's improved liquidity perspective following last week's consent, in principle, from the Euro group to the three-year loan program for Greece via the ESM, alongside the provision of €7.16 billion in three-month bridge financing to the Greek government, which it used on July 20 to clear its arrears with the IMF and the Bank of Greece and to repay the ECB” - Standard & Poor's rating agency.
In UK Retail Sales fell 0.2% in June according to the Office for National Statistics, London.
GBPUSD declined from a peak of 1.5665 to touch a low of 1.5589 due to unexpected drop in the Retail sales.
US Home Resales climbed to their highest level in 8 years in the month of June. Existing Home sales rose 3.2% to an annual rate of 5.49 million.
Crude oil prices have moved lower to $49.19 after US crude oil stocks rose 2.5 million barrels according to the EIA weekly report.
Gold has recovered its losses and is currently trading at 1101.80, while Silver is flat at 14.87
23rd July 2015 – 10:20hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Market Analysis – 24th July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
Gold prices hit 5-year lows on weak China PMI, Global cues
Gold prices fell in the Asian trading session as globally investors see a slowdown in the Chinese Economy which is one of the top buyers of the precious metal.
Gold touched a record low of $1078.67 in the early trading session and consolidated at $1081.40in the European trading session today.
The China Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed a decline to 48.2 a 15-month-low, well below analyst expectation of 49.7 on backdrop of the recent stock market crash and weak global exports.
“In our opinion, the movements in the gold price earlier this year reflected market expectations that the events in Greece or the pullback in Chinese stocks were local – not global – risks and that the possibility of a disorderly outcome was/is still low. This does not necessarily mean that the market is correct. It simply reflects its current view” - World Gold Council.
“Investors now seem focused on the direction of the US dollar and the Fed’s monetary policy stance... The gold price already reflects a possible rate hike later this year and that the US-centered perspective is missing a more comprehensive view of the market” - World Gold Council.
“Whether it happens over before the end of the year, or later, we believe that the gold price should already incorporate, at least in good part, current market expectations of a rate hike. In our view, the gold price may be less susceptible to the first rate hike when it actually occurs and the main focus will be the pace at which the Fed signals it will continue raising rates” - World Gold Council.
“Should the conditions change and the risk of contagion or the unintended consequences of a Greek exit increase, we would expect to see a stronger reaction from the gold price. As a high quality, liquid asset, it is likely that many investors would use gold to protect wealth. Similarly, the recent Chinese stock market sell-off hasn’t resulted in a large uptick in the gold price thus far. A more substantial market correction in China, however, could spill over to other economies, increase uncertainty worldwide and make gold a more relevant hedge” - World Gold Council.
The markets are now focusing on a Federal Reserve rate hike in September this year as geopolitical tension appears eased for now.
"What a conundrum we face: commodities are shouting that the global economy is deteriorating, key emerging markets are already seeing major volatility, and yet the world's most important central bank is close to tightening monetary policy" - Michael Every, Rabobank
Following the Weak China PMI Australian Dollar has dropped to a low of $0.7285 in the European trading session, the lowest levels since 2009.
Crude oil prices have moved lower to $48.64 on concerns of global oversupply and weak demand.
Gold prices tumbled to 5 year low and is currently trading at 1079.92, while Silver is weak at 14.49
24th July 2015 – 10:55hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Technical Analysis – 27th July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
EURUSD
EURUSD was bearish last week and opened the week higher in the early Asian trading session. Now the pair is trading above its 20day moving average of 1.0971 in the Asian trading session. The near term bias remains Bullish with targets of 1.1070
RSI (14), STOCH (9, 6), MACD (12, 26), ADX (14), Ultimate Oscillator, ROC, MA100, MA200 indicate a BUY; STOCHRSI (14) is Overbought; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 1.0969 while Resistance is at 1.1017
27th July 2015 – 03:21hrs GMT
GBPUSD
GBPUSD was bullish last week and opened the week lower in the early Asian trading session. Now the pair is trading above its 20day moving average of 1.5507 in the Asian trading session. The near term bias remains Neutral to Bullish with targets of 1.5580
RSI (14) is Neutral; STOCH (9, 6), ADX (14), CCI (14), Ultimate Oscillator, ROC indicate a BUY; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 1.5466 while Resistance is at 1.5532
27th July 2015 – 03:25hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Technical Analysis – 27th July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
AUDUSD
AUDUSD was bearish last week and opened the week higher in the early Asian trading session. Now the pair is trading above its 20day moving average of 0.7281 in the Asian trading session. The near term bias remains Neutral to Bullish with targets of 0.7350
RSI (14), STOCH (9, 6) are Neutral; STOCHRSI (14), ADX (14), CCI (14), Ultimate Oscillator, ROC indicate a BUY; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 0.7259 while Resistance is at 0.7341
27th July 2015 – 03:29hrs GMT
USDJPY
USDJPY was bullish last week and opened the week lower in the early Asian trading session. Now the pair is trading below its 20day moving average of 123.79 in the Asian trading session. The near term bias remains Bearish with targets of 123.00
RSI (14), MACD (12, 26), ADX (14), ROC, MA100, MA200 indicate a SELL; STOCHRSI (14) is Oversold; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 123.42 while Resistance is at 123.81
27th July2015 – 03:37hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Market Analysis – 27th July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
US Dollar weak ahead of FOMC Rate Decision
The US Dollar is weak ahead of the much awaited Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting this week on Wednesday.
According to the Analyst expectations 80% believe that Fed will hike interest rates in September and give a clear direction to the future rate hikes.
The Fed officials will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday and issue a statement at the conclusion of Wednesday’s meeting. Investors will be looking for directions as to whether the Fed is moving closer to raising interest rates in September this year.
Globally investors seem to be cautious if Fed fails to give any indication of a September rake hike in its policy meeting on Wednesday.
In the FOMC statement, look for only minor cosmetic changes to the post-meeting communique... do not expect policymakers to provide any new clues with regard to a potential rate hike in September - Deutsche bank.
In the minutes to the April meeting the FOMC had a discussion about whether or not to signal in the statements leading up to liftoff that a rate hike is likely coming in the near term. The Committee concluded that it would not signal a rate hike in the meeting prior to liftoff. Instead, the first hike would be decided on a meeting-by-meeting basis - JP Morgan.
The July FOMC statement should emphasize data dependence and eschew any overt signals about the timing of liftoff. We look for a cautiously optimistic assessment of the outlook as data have been somewhat more mixed since the June meeting. With the market pricing less than a 40% chance of a September hike, July communications should push those odds up slightly - Bank of America.
At issue is whether the FOMC will alter its forward guidance to prepare the markets explicitly for a near-term rate hike. If the Committee feels confident it can start normalizing policy in September, which has been our forecasted lift-off date, we believe it will adjust the language - Credit Suisse.
The Euro zone's manufacturing sector declined as the PMI for the Euro area came in at 52.2 for the month of July. German PMI fell to 52.2 while French PMI fell to 49.6 in the month of July.
"Eurozone economic growth lost only slight momentum in July amid the rollercoaster events of the Greek debt crisis during the month. The rate of expansion remained reassuringly robust to suggest that it was by-and-large 'business as usual' for the region as a whole" - Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.
Crude oil prices have moved lower to $47.87 due to a weak trend in Asia and slump in the manufacturing sector in China.
Gold has recovered its losses and is currently trading at 1099.57, while Silver is flat at 14.68
27th July 2015 – 09:55hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Technical Analysis – 28th July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
EURUSD
EURUSD was bullish yesterday as it touched a high of 1.1127 and remained firm towards the end of the trading session. Now the pair is trading just above its 20day moving average of 1.10827 in the Asian trading session. The near term bias remains Neutral to Bullish with targets of 1.1150
CCI (14) is Neutral; RSI (14), MACD (12, 26), ROC, MA100, MA200 indicate a BUY; STOCHRSI (14) is Oversold; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 1.1031 while Resistance is at 1.1130
28th July 2015 – 00:32hrs GMT
GBPUSD
GBPUSD was bearish yesterday as it touched a low of 1.5552 and remained weak towards the end of the trading session. Now the pair is trading above its 20day moving average of 1.5546 in the Asian trading session. The near term bias remains Neutral to Bullish with targets of 1.5600
CCI (14) is Neutral; RSI (14), MACD (12, 26), ADX (14), Ultimate Oscillator, ROC indicate a BUY; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 1.5497 while Resistance is at 1.5587
28th July 2015 – 00:36hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Technical Analysis – 28th July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
AUDUSD
AUDUSD was bearish yesterday as it touched a low of 0.7263 and remained weak towards the end of the trading session. Now the pair is trading below its 20day moving average of 0.7286 in the Asian trading session. The near term bias remains Neutral to Bearish with targets of 0.7200
RSI (14), STOCHRSI (14) are Neutral; MACD (12, 26), ADX (14), Ultimate Oscillator, ROC, MA100, MA200 indicate a SELL; STOCH (9, 6) is Neutral; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 0.7263 while Resistance is at 0.7287
28th July 2015 – 00:42hrs GMT
USDJPY
USDJPY remained indecisive yesterday as it touched a low of 123.09 and a high of 123.28 towards the end of the trading session. Now it is trading below its 20day moving average of 123.27 in the Asian trading session. The near term bias remains Neutral to Bearish.
CCI (14) is Neutral; RSI (14), MACD (12, 26), ADX (14), Ultimate Oscillator, ROC, MA100, MA200 indicate a SELL; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 122.99 while Resistance is at 123.70
28th July 2015 – 00:46hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Market Analysis – 28th July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
China Slowdown worries Global Investors
In China growth has fallen to the lowest level since 2009 as Shanghai stocks plunged by 8.48% on Monday, in spite of government efforts as the world’s second largest economy is heading towards a slowdown.
Globally investors are worried that the slowdown in China will pull other major economies including the US and Japan as Europe is already under pressure from its member countries.
Major concerns are that the foreign trade between US and China may get affected and the slowdown will affect industries in USA. Many of US companies are involved in trade with China which may get affected.
As the economy of China is driven by debt, the slowdown will start a financial crisis which could spread to the other parts of the world.
"Even if China's economy maintained its growth rate, the main contribution would be from public investment, so the effect on Asian economies and Japan's exports warrants due attention. The slowdown in exports and output are likely temporary" - Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso.
Many U.S. consumer companies are brushing aside worries that China's weakening economy and sputtering stock market will dramatically damage their bottom lines even with early trouble signs in recent earnings reports - Reuters.
The Chinese economy has faced difficulties this year as decelerating growth in factory output, retail sales and domestic investment has been compounded by a slowing property market - Reuters.
A slowdown in China will have a spillover effect on many countries including USA, UK, Australia, India and Europe.
In China Manufacturing activity plunged in the month of July to 48.2 hitting a 15 month low showing signs of a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy.
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras seeks support of the Syriza party to tackle the new 86billion euro EU-IMF bailout.
"Collective, democratic regrouping procedures are called for. Our strategy must be clarified... The congress procedure must be set into motion as soon as possible" - Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.
Greek PM is aiming to strike a deal with its European creditors soon, before dealing with the internal conflicts in the party.
Crude Oil is trading lower at $47.13 on China stock market collapse and oversupply concerns.
Gold is trading lower in the Europe at 1094.60, while Silver is weak 14.57
28th July 2015 – 03:02hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Technical Analysis – 29th July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
EURUSD
EURUSD was indecisive yesterday as it touched a low of 1.1023 and then recovered upwards at the end of the trading session. Now the pair is trading just above its 20day moving average of 1.1058 in the European trading session. The near term bias remains Neutral.
RSI (14), STOCH (9, 6), STOCHRSI (14), ADX (14) are Neural; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 1.1031 while Resistance is at 1.1097
29th July 2015 – 08:39hrs GMT
GBPUSD
GBPUSD was bullish yesterday as it touched a high of 1.5625 and remained firm towards the end of the trading session. Now the pair is trading above its 20day moving average of 1.5607 in the European trading session. The near term bias remains Neutral to Bullish with targets of 1.5700
ADX (14) is Neutral; RSI (14), STOCH (9, 6), MACD (12, 26), Ultimate Oscillator, ROC, MA100, MA200 indicate a BUY; STOCHRSI (14) is Overbought; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 1.5551 while Resistance is at 1.5627
29th July 2015 – 08:46hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Technical Analysis – 29th July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
AUDUSD
AUDUSD was bullish yesterday as it touched a high of 0.7338 and remained firm towards the end of the trading session. Now the pair is trading below its 20day moving average of 0.7328 in the European trading session. The near term bias remains Bearish with targets of 0.7250
RSI (14), STOCH (9, 6), ADX (14), CCI (14), Ultimate Oscillator, ROC, MA100, MA200 indicate a SELL; STOCHRSI (14) is Oversold; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 0.7256 while Resistance is at 0.7328
29th July 2015 – 08:52hrs GMT
USDJPY
USDJPY was bullish yesterday as it touched a high of 123.77 and remained firm towards the end of the trading session. Now the pair is trading above its 20day moving average of 123.55 in the European trading session. The near term bias remains Neutral to Bullish with targets of 124.10
STOCH (9, 6) is Neutral; RSI (14), MACD (12, 26), ADX (14), CCI (14), Ultimate Oscillator, ROC, MA100 indicate a BUY; STOCHRSI (14) is Overbought; while Average True Range (14) indicates High Volatility.
Support is at 123.33 while Resistance is at 123.67
29th July2015 – 09:09hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.