Daily Market Analysis by FxGrow - page 12
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Daily Market Analysis – 09th July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
FOMC Minutes: Fed Cautious over weak Consumer spending, Risks in Greece and China
“Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced.” – FOMC.
"Many participants emphasized that, in order to determine that the criteria for beginning policy normalization had been met, they would need additional information indicating that economic growth was strengthening, that labor market conditions were continuing to improve, and that inflation was moving back toward the Committee's objective." – FOMC.
"Most participants judged that the conditions for policy firming had not yet been achieved; a number of them cautioned against a premature decision" – FOMC.
The FOMC minutes show that officials are cautious about the economic outlook. Their concerns include weak consumer spending, and drags on investment and exports resulting from lower energy prices and a stronger USD.
Concern over Greece and China, Fed officials were open to delaying their first interest rate increase since 2006 amid uncertainty over Greece’s future in the euro zone.
"While a worst-case scenario of a Greek exit from the euro leading to sizable financial and economic impacts on the global economy cannot be ruled out, it remains an unlikely tail risk" - San Francisco Fed President Williams.
In China, Stock markets have stabilized with the Shanghai Composite up 6.35% and the Shenzhen Composite up 3.76%. With support from the Chinese government to rescue stock markets, the People's Bank of China has cut interest rates to a record low; brokerages have committed to buy billions worth of stocks.
The Greek government sent a formal request for a new bailout to the European Stability Mechanism, asking for a three-year loan facility.
Greece has said it will provide details of credible and concrete reforms to its creditors today to try to secure a third bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
Canada’s Building permits declined to C$6.7 billion for the month of May, showing signs that the Canadian economy struggled to regain momentum after shrinking in the first quarter of the 2015.
Crude oil is trading lower at $52.44 after a surprise build in US stockpiles.
Gold is trading higher in the Europe at 1164.45, while Silver is up at 15.39
09th July 2015 – 09:04hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Technical Analysis – 10th July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
EURUSD
EURUSD was indecisive yesterday as it touched a low of 1.0990 and then moved upwards at the end of the trading session. Now the pair is trading above its 20day moving average of 1.1114 in the European trading session. The near term bias remains Bullish with targets of 1.1160 to 1.1180
RSI (14), STOCH (9, 6), MACD (12, 26), ADX (14), Ultimate Oscillator, ROC, MA100, MA200 indicate a BUY; STOCHRSI (14) is Overbought; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 1.1061 while Resistance is at 1.1172
10th July 2015 – 06:52hrs GMT
GBPUSD
GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday as it touched a high of 1.5418 and a low of 1.5342 towards the end of the trading session. Now the pair is trading above its 20day moving average of 1.5383 in the European trading session. The near term bias remains Bullish with targets of 1.5450
STOCH (9, 6), RSI (14), MACD (12, 26), ADX (14), Ultimate Oscillator, ROC indicate a BUY; STOCHRSI (14) is Overbought; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 1.5343 while Resistance is at 1.5420
10th July 2015 – 06:57hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Technical Analysis – 10th July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
AUDUSD
AUDUSD was mildly bullish yesterday as it touched a high of 0.7490 but then it came down towards the end of the trading session. Now the pair is trading above its 20day moving average of 0.7458 in the European trading session. The near term bias remains Bullish with targets of 0.7500
RSI (14), STOCH (9, 6), MACD (12, 26), ADX (14), ROC, CCI (14) indicate a BUY; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 0.7449 while Resistance is at 0.7495
10th July 2015 – 07:01hrs GMT
USDJPY
USDJPY was bullish yesterday and maintained its up tone towards the end of the trading session. Now it is trading below its 20day moving average of 121.88 in the European trading session. The near term bias remains Bullish with targets of 122.50
RSI (14), STOCHRSI (14), ADX (14), MACD (12, 26), CCI (14), Ultimate Oscillator, ROC indicate a BUY; STOCH (9, 6) is Overbought; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 120.50 while Resistance is at 121.97
10th July2015 – 07:05hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Market Analysis – 10th July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
Euro Higher as Greece submits new Bailout Proposal
Greece has submitted a new detailed proposal to its European creditors asking for a three year bailout loan. The chairman of Euro group finance ministers, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, received the documents which will be assessed by the officials from the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund.
"We got a mandate to bring a better deal than the ultimatum that the Euro group gave us, but certainly not given a mandate to take Greece out of the Eurozone. We are confronted with crucial decisions, we are all in this together" - Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.
Greek PM Alexis Tsipras has taken care to draft a new proposal along with his cabinet which proposes tax rises, pension reforms meeting the demands of the creditors. The new proposal is due to be approved by the Greek Parliament today and will be presented before the Euro group of Finance minister's summit on Sunday.
EURUSD is lifted by the news that Greece has submitted a new proposal for bailout from a low of 1.0991 to trade at 1.1118 in the European trading session.
“The realistic proposal from Greece will have to be matched by an equally realistic proposal on debt sustainability from the creditors. Only then will we have a win-win situation” - European Council President Donald Tusk.
European Union leaders will be meeting for an emergency summit in Brussels on Sunday where they will decide on the future of the Greece in the Euro. If there is no deal by Sunday then the Greek economy will collapse and possibly leave the Euro.
“Greece seeks to reach an agreement with the institutions immediately, but we want an agreement that will respect the country and the people’s dignity, and that will open windows for a way out of the crisis. We do not want to add a third Memorandum of harsh austerity, suffering and deprivation to the two previous ones without offering a prospect to the country" - Greek Energy Minister.
The future of Greece in the Eurozone will be decided this weekend when the European leaders will discuss a third bailout program in the light of new proposal submitted to them.
US Initial Jobless Claims jumped to 297K, as the number of people applying for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week.
Bank of England has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% on backdrop of strong growth. IMF expects British economy to grow 2.7% this year.
In Australia Unemployment rate rose to 6.0% for the month of June according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
China’s Consumer Inflation rose to 1.4% for the month of June according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
Crude oil has rebounded to $53.26 as China stock markets have recovered from collapse.
Gold is trading higher in the Europe at 1163.16, while Silver is up at 15.47
10th July 2015 – 09:38hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Technical Analysis – 13th July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
EURUSD
EURUSD was bullish last week without any major movements and opened the week lower at 1.1096 today. Now the pair is trading below its 20day moving average of 1.1144 in the European trading session. The near term bias remains Neutral to Bearish with targets of 1.1050
RSI (14), CCI (14) are Neutral; STOCH (9, 6), ROC, Williams %R indicate a SELL; STOCHRSI (14) is Oversold; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 1.1065 while Resistance is at 1.1151
13th July 2015 – 07:51hrs GMT
GBPUSD
GBPUSD closed last week higher and opened the week slightly up at 1.5518 today. Now the pair is trading above its 20day moving average of 1.5509 in the European trading session. The near term bias remains Bullish with targets of 1.5600
RSI (14), MACD (12, 26), ADX (14), Ultimate Oscillator, ROC, MA100, MA200 indicate a BUY; CCI (14) is Overbought; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 1.5420 while Resistance is at 1.5616
13th July 2015 – 07:38hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Technical Analysis – 13th July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
AUDUSD
AUDUSD was lower last week and opened the week lower at 0.7412 today. Now the pair is trading below its 20day moving average of 0.7435 in the European trading session. The near term bias remains Neutral to Bearish with targets of 0.7350
RSI (14), STOCH (9, 6) are Neutral; STOCHRSI (14), MACD (12, 26), Ultimate Oscillator, MA100, MA200 indicate a SELL; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 0.7409 while Resistance is at 0.7462
13th July 2015 – 07:46hrs GMT
USDJPY
USDJPY was bullish last week and opened the week lower at 122.17 today. Now it is trading above its 20day moving average of 122.70 in the European trading session. The near term bias remains Bullish with targets of 124.00
RSI (14), STOCHRSI (14), CCI (14), Ultimate Oscillator are Overbought; ADX (14), MACD (12, 26), ROC, MA100, MA200 indicate a BUY; while Average True Range (14) indicates High Volatility.
Support is at 122.45 while Resistance is at 123.31
13th July2015 – 07:59hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Market Analysis – 13th July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
Eurozone Leaders have reached a Greek Bailout Agreement
Eurozone leaders have agreed upon a Greek bailout deal and keep Greece in the Euro. European Summit Chair Donald Tusk tweeted in a message “Euro Summit has unanimously reached agreement”. The new bailout proposed for Greece will include serious economic reforms and financial support.
"After 17 hours of negotiations, we have finally reached it. One can say that we have ‘agreement’. Leaders have agreed in principle that they are ready to start negotiations on an ESM programme, which in other words means continued support for Greece" - EU council President Donald Tusk.
"There are strict conditions to be met. The approval of several national parliaments, including the Greek parliament, is now needed for negotiations on an ESM programme to formally begin" - EU council President Donald Tusk.
Following the news EURUSD shot up and touched a high of 1.1195 in the European trading session. Euro was unable to hold on and drifted lower as the traders sentiments shifted towards US rate hike later this year.
The third bailout program for Greece is estimated at 86 billion euros and will require Greek parliament to push legislation including tax and pension reforms as demanded by its creditors.
“Greece had secured debt restructuring and a 35 billion euro growth package. We fought a tough battle. We face difficult decisions” - Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.
“I think the euro is being pulled down by expectations that higher US rates will support the dollar, and the cost of Greece deal, including a worsening Greek economic crisis and increasing fissures in Europe’s leadership” - strategist at Union Bancaire Privée.
“The country which we help has shown a willingness and readiness to carry out reforms. The advantages far outweigh the disadvantages" - German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The Greek Parliament needs to approve the terms of the agreement without any delay. A fund will be created to monetize some Greek State assets owned by the Greek government to help pay down the country’s debt.
Greece will also need to seek the assistance of the International Monetary Fund to monitor the country’s adherence to its bailout commitments.
Euro group head Jeroen Dijsselbloem said a fund will be set up to tackle the debt and recapitalization of the country’s banks. The total size of the fund would be around 50 billion euros.
“Once approximately €25 billion needed to recapitalize the banks have been used, 50% of the remaining funds will be used to bring down debt even more, and 50% can be invested in Greece by the Greek government. This is one of the key elements on both debt sustainability and to let growth return to Greece.” - Euro group head Jeroen Dijsselbloem.
Crude oil is trading lower at $51.66 after IEA reported that world oil demand will be slower in the next year.
Gold is trading lower in the Europe at 1156.24, while Silver is weak at 15.47
13th July 2015 – 10:05hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Technical Analysis – 14th July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
EURUSD
EURUSD was bearish yesterday and came down below 1.1000 remaining weak towards the end of the trading session. Now the pair is trading below its 20day moving average of 1.1006 in the European trading session. The near term bias remains Bearish with targets of 1.0900
RSI (14), STOCHRSI (14), MACD (12, 26), ADX (14), CCI (14), Ultimate Oscillator, ROC indicate a SELL; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 1.0969 while Resistance is at 1.1131
14th July 2015 – 07:28hrs GMT
GBPUSD
GBPUSD tried to go up yesterday as it touched a high of 1.5586 but then it came down below 1.5500 and remained weak towards the end of the trading session. Now the pair is trading below its 20day moving average of 1.5493 in the European trading session. The near term bias remains Bearish with targets of 1.5400
RSI (14), MACD (12, 26), ADX (14), ROC, MA200 indicate a SELL; STOCHRSI (14), CCI (14) are Oversold; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 1.5423 while Resistance is at 1.5507
14th July 2015 – 07:33hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Technical Analysis – 14th July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
AUDUSD
AUDUSD remained indecisive as it touched a high of 0.7460 and a low of 0.7383 yesterday. Now the pair is trading above its 20day moving average of 0.7412 in the European trading session. The near term bias remains Neutral to Bullish with targets of 0.7480
RSI (14), ADX (14) are Neutral; STOCH (9, 6), CCI (14), Ultimate Oscillator, ROC indicate a BUY; while Average True Range (14) indicates Less Volatility.
Support is at 0.7392 while Resistance is at 0.7449
14th July 2015 – 07:57hrs GMT
USDJPY
USDJPY was bullish yesterday as it touched a high of 123.48 and remained strong towards the end of the trading session. Now it is trading just below its 20day moving average of 123.46 in the European trading session. The near term bias remains Neutral to Bullish with targets of 123.85
STOCH (9, 6), CCI (14) are Neutral; RSI (14), MACD (12, 26), ADX (14), Ultimate Oscillator, ROC, MA100, MA200 indicate a BUY; while Average True Range (14) indicates High Volatility.
Support is at 122.45 while Resistance is at 123.64
14th July2015 – 08:02hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.
Daily Market Analysis – 14th July, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team
US Dollar Gains on expectations of Fed Rate Hike this year
US Dollar rose against its major counterparts after global tensions eased on the news that Eurozone leaders have reached an agreement for a new bailout package for Greece.
Following the Greek deal investor sentiment has improved as they are now looking at the growth divergences between the US and Europe. Safe heaven currencies such as the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc are also weak reflecting the investor sentiment.
Globally investors have shifted their focus to the US Federal Reserve as it is expected to hike interest rates later this year.
Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will provide more cues of the timing of the rate hike at her semiannual testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.
Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said in her statement last week "It will be appropriate at some point later this year to take the first step to raise the federal funds rate and thus begin normalizing monetary policy."
The US Dollar remains steady against the Japanese Yen as it touched a high of 123.74 today after the risks of a Greek exit from the Eurozone were avoided.
EURUSD touched a low of 1.0968 as trader’s reverted back to dollar buying after the easing of concerns over Greece and China.
Greek's 10 year sovereign yields fell to 12.01 per cent, German 10 year yields to 0.85 percent, while the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 2.44 per cent.
Wall Street rallied on Greek deal with the DJIA and the S&P 500 indices rising +1.22% and +1.11% respectively. The Stoxx600 jumped a further +2%.
Chinese stocks rose with the Shanghai Composite rising 2.4 per cent and the Shenzhen Composite ending 4.2 per cent higher.
In UK CPI Inflation dropped to zero for the month of June, following the significant drop in oil prices at the beginning of this year.
In Germany investor confidence dropped as the ZEW index dropped to 29.7 for the month of June. ZEW economic sentiment for the Eurozone came in at 42.7 amid uncertain conditions in Europe.
China's Exports increased by 2.8% for the month of June as compared from the previous year. China's customs department said that the country's trade performance will improve in the second half of 2015.
Japan industrial production declined 3.9% in May as the world's third biggest economy faces pressure to sustain a healthy growth in the second half of 2015.
Crude oil is trading lower at $51.18 after Iran reached a nuclear deal which is expected to increase the supply of Iranian crude on world markets.
Gold is trading lower in the Europe at 1153.98, while Silver is weak at 15.35
14th July 2015 – 10:34hrs GMT
For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.
Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.