Swiss franc news - page 13
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USD/CHF: Buck Elevated on Confidence Leap The greenback increased against the Swiss franc on Tuesday after a set of favorable US data, namely upbeat consumer confidence in December, but in general the trading activity remained muted ahead of the year end.
Therefore, the USD/CHF cross managed to extend its rebound from the bottom at ₣0.9853 seen on December 24 as the buck managed to find some ground around the ₣0.98 level, following the sharp drop from its five-year peak at ₣1.0335 reached late in November. The turmoil was induced by the latest meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) where the central banks' officials expanded the current monetary stimulus at the lower band of markets' expected range.
In the afternoon, the greenback added 0.38% to trade at ₣0.9914, dwelling below an intraday high of ₣0.9944, while the US dollar index climbed 0.20% to 98.18 points.
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SNB likely to post a record loss for 2015
Bloomberg reporting an article from newspaper Schweiz am Sonntag published today
SNB profit & loss (CHFbln)
The table above shows the sharp reverse from a record profit in 2014 of CHF 38bln
The SNB forex reserves totalled CHF 563bln at the end of November and can be assumed to have grown since, given the on-going intervention to weaken the franc/prevent further appreciation. Some of these H2 currency purchases will be showing a profit given the rises in many CHF pairs and the full year results will be less than the half yearly CHF50bln loss reported
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SNB's Jordan says good sign that dollar, Swiss franc near parity It is a good sign that the U.S. dollar and the Swiss franc are near parity, Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan said in an interview with Swiss television SFR.
"We see that the dollar has strengthened versus the Swiss franc recently. It is now at about parity and that is actually a good sign for us," Jordan told Swiss televison programme ECO in an interview to be broadcast on Monday. An extract from the interview was available on the SRF website on Friday.
Jordan said the decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates last month had relieved upward pressure on the Swiss franc and that Swiss interest rates, now negative, had to stay low in a low-rate international environment
SNB's Jordan expects CHF to stay at current level or weaken
Swiss National Bank president Thomas Jordan speaking just now to SRF Radio
There is little doubt in my mind that the SNB have been lending a helping hand lately, as I have repeatedly highlighted in my order board posts, evident from the lack of falls in EURCHF and holding above 1.0750 when all around it euro pairs were tumbling.
If, as I believe, we are to see a resurgence in the euro such as that which we saw yesterday after the NFPs, particularly vs the beleaguered pound ( I called for higher EURGBP in my 2016 forecasts) then the SNB's intervention will have a welcome ally.
Jordan's job meanwhile, and as much why he's been very vocal of late, is to convince Swiss exporters suffering from the stronger franc that the SNB did the right thing by removing the CHF cap and that everything will be alright in the end.
This week the SNB reported provisional 2015 losses of CHF 23bln also due to CHF strength with final figures due in March, but 2016 should bring better times for their reserves valuation.
The SNB's work is far from done though and we should expect them to continue prop up both EURCHF and USDCHF for some time yet.
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USD/CHF: Bulls Still In Control — For Now Markets are a bit more stable across the board today as traders navigate another essentially economic data-free day. The fundamental tranquility will likely be rudely interrupted later this week – Key upcoming reports include Chinese trade balance figures tonight, AU employment tomorrow night, the BOE’s Super Thursday festivities and US Retail Sales / PPI / Consumer data on Friday – but technical concerns and market sentiment should be the primary driver of trade in today’s US session.
One currency pair that has held up relatively well through 2016’s market volatility is USD/CHF. The unit rallied into 61.8% Fibonacci resistance last week before dropping sharply back to 4-month bullish trend line support to start this week. Yesterday, rates carved out a clear Piercing Candle* pattern, showing an intraday shift from selling to buying pressure and raising the odds of a near-term bottom forming.
The secondary indicators generally support this bullish view: the MACD is trending higher above both its signal line and the “0” level, signalling growing bullish momentum, while the RSI is holding above its own multi-month bullish trend line and is nowhere near overbought territory, where the risks of a near-term dip would grow.
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USD/CHF: Franc Attacks Parity as Risk-Off Sentiment Re-Emerges The Swiss franc was attacking parity with the US dollar on Wednesday, backed mainly by its safe-haven status, while the ZEW survey of the business environment in Switzerland and US inflation data had little effect on the pair.
The USD/CHF pair traded 0.30% lower at ₣1.0003 during New York session, at one point falling below parity and registering an intraday low of ₣0.9991.
Safe-haven currencies were boosted on Wednesday once again, as traders sold riskier and higher yielding assets as the risk aversion wave re-emerged, pushing down stocks, commodities and their linked currencies such as the AUD and NZD.
"Over the last few weeks, equity markets have been on a rollercoaster ride; yesterday we were moving higher with equity markets and commodity currencies pairing gains but today it's time to go south. Asian stocks fell sharply on Wednesday, erasing yesterday's gains. The Japanese Nikkei broke another support as it moved below 16,592 (low from January 2015), down 3.71%," Arnaud Masset, market strategist at Swissquote Bank, said.
"In the FX market, investors have made clear their preferences for safe haven assets such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, running away from the aussie, loonie, kiwi and the Norwegian krone," he added.
Oil fell further on Wednesday, with both benchmarks trading below the $29 level, as worries over the global supply glut deepened.
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Switzerland trade balance Dec CHF +2.54bln vs +2.9bln exp Latest Swiss trade data now out
Strong franc still making its negative impact felt.
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USD/CHF: Pair at 7-Week Highs, Touches ₣1.02 The greenback was surging on Friday, hitting seven-week highs on the way as it was trading around ₣1.02 during the London session.
Today is a very heavy day for the greenback from the macro releases point of view, as the US GDP for the fourth quarter is projected to decline from 2.0% to 0.8%, according to this first estimate. In addition, the GDP price index will be released and the PCE annualized data are also due. Moreover, the Chicago PMI is expected to improve to 45.3 from 42.9 and the UoM confidence gauge should slow in January.
In the previous session, the US durable goods orders for December crashed from -0.5% to -5.1%, with the ex-transport gauge dropping to -1.2% from -0.5% previously. The greenback declined against the euro after these data, however, the USD/CHF pair remained resilient and declined only marginally in the initial reaction, with the greenback erasing all the losses later in the day.
In addition, the odds for the March rate hike dropped below 30% after the latest developments and somewhat dovish Wednesday's FOMC , which means the Fed will most likely wait until June to hike rates, if any hike will happen at all.
"Given that the next Fed meeting isn’t until March, the FOMC will probably prefer to wait to establish whether we see a decent recovery in Q1 data before they make another decision on rates, and given some of the weakness in some of this month’s manufacturing numbers that isn’t a given by any means," Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said in a note.
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EURCHF demand has the SNB scent all over it Sharp gains in this pair with the Swiss National Bank in the frame
I've repeatedly highlighted the demand in this pair and the constant threat of the SNB backing up its intervention rhetoric.
We can point the finger at them again today making the most of the month-end mayhem to drive EURCHF up to post 1.1166, new highs since Jordan & Co removed the CHF cap just over a year ago.
Today's euro demand has been exacerbated by EURGBP sovereign buying that I've also highlighted and earlier I reported the SNB's net gain in Q4 euro fx reserves.
EURCHF currently backing off at 1.1140 but I recommend buying into the dips still. Support now will come in at 1.1120,1.1100 and 1.1080.
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SNB's Jordan, the broken record SNB's Thomas Jordan speaks in Geneva
Stop him if you've heard that before...please