Swiss franc news - page 11
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Switzerland SECO consumer confidence Oct -18 vs -17 exp Data out a few moments ago
Not a price changer but USDCHF underpinned still on the $ demand albeit tempered by EURCHF selling
Currently 0.9944 with EURCHF dipping below 1.0800 again
Credit Suisse Trade Of The Week: Buy USD/CHF Currency investors should consider buying USD/CHF this week, advises Credit Suisse in its weekly FX pick to clients.
"Further follow through after Friday’s NFP print is likely to continue, and we see USDCHF as a good leveraged trade on the theme of policy divergence in G10.
Later this week the tone of Fedspeak could shift further towards signalling a December liftoff, and our economists also expect a modest rebound in US retail sales (+0.4% mom ex-auto/gas, in line with consensus)," CS says as a rationale behind this call.
"We reiterate our recommendation for a six-month USDCHF 1.05 digital call," CS advises.
CHF: SNB Ready To Fight - Nordea The SNB stands ready to intervene before they cut deposit rate - if at all. That should keep the CHF weak. EUR/CHF downside should be limited to 1.05 where the SNB will act aggressively. Expect EUR/CHF rise to resume.
The EUR/CHF has been range trading since September. As it approached the 1.07 level after the ECB meeting, there were rumours that the SNB intervened. They act as a support for the EUR/CHF.
SNB ready to fight
There is little evidence that the SNB has been very active, if intervention has happened at all, over the past few weeks. At least the sight deposit data suggests so. However, the SNB has been vocal lately, saying it is ready to do so, if needed. It seems the 1.05-1.07 level is what the bank will defend at any cost. The recent communication from the SNB suggests the CHF is "significantly overvalued" and the FX intervention remains their preferred tool to fight it.
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USD/CHF: Dollar Strongest Since SNB's January Action Although the US dollar consolidated slightly on the downside in the overnight session, it still remains at its highest versus the Swiss franc since the Swiss National Bank (SNB) removed the cap on the exchange rate with the euro on January 15.
The US dollar strengthened overnight on the back of slightly better-than-expected US consumer prices, driving the market implied probability of a December Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike back up to 68% from 66%.
The greenback eased from its overnight high of ₣1.0170, its highest since January 15, down 0.06% to ₣1.0140 on Wednesday. The prospects of a Fed rate hike at the December meeting is currently the main bullish driver behind a stronger USD.
The major focus today will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes along with several Fed speakers.
In the previous session, US CPI came in slightly stronger-than-expected at 0.2% year-on-year against expectations for 0.1%, adding to the strength of the USD.
At its October meeting the Fed wrong footed the markets completely by publishing a surprisingly hawkish statement in the face of a much weaker US economic outlook than was the case at the September meeting. Since the October minutes the US dollar risen another 2.5% to be over 13% higher year-on-year.
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USD/CHF: Buck Steps From 11-Mth High, Rests After Latest Rally The USD/CHF pair was seen below the ₣1.02 level on Thursday, as the greenback failed to return to the highest level since January at ₣1.0221 reached on November 18, after a new set of data from the US failed to bring necessary fuel for exhausted bulls.
In addition, the buck earned approximately 200 pips over last five business days amid expectations of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) meeting minutes. On Wednesday afternoon, the detailed look showed that a majority of the central bank's members got comfortable with the idea of a monetary policy shift as external headwinds faded slightly.
"That the dollar is lower signals that this outcome of the December meeting is increasingly discounted, particularly in the wake of recent, very heavy USD buying," Citi's head of G10 FX strategy Todd Elmer said. "It likewise means that for the USD to head higher still, some signal on the trajectory of rates beyond the first hike may be needed."
On Thursday, the USD/CHF decreased 0.37% to ₣1.0160, falling from an intraday high of ₣1.0202 seen earlier in the morning.
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Trading CHF Shorts - Morgan Stanley The radically dovish ECB stance has implications for other European central banks, says Morgan Stanley.
"The Riksbank and the Danish central bank have made it clear that they will shadow the ECB in its actions, but with DKK pegged and the Swedish economy showing signs of autonomous strength, easy approaches by these two central banks will be difficult to trade.
The matter is different in the case of CHF. The SNB having a -0.75% negative deposit rate now needs to think how it can make commercial banks charge deposit holders.. Should these efforts bear fruit, Switzerland may face a wave of capital outflows and CHF hedging, weakening CHF," MS argues.
"We remain USDCHF long, but also see substantial downside potential in CHFJPY shorts," MS advises.
MS maintains 2 long USD/CHF positions targeting a move to 1.0250, and 1.03.
Switzerland UBS consumption indicator Oct 1.6 vs 1.56 prev Data now out but not Tier 1
The UBS Consumption Indicator is a leading indicator of private consumption trends. This indicator is a combined reading of five indicators, including consumer confidence, consumer spending, tourism, new car sales, and retail activity.
USDCHF 1.0157 EURCHF 1.0835. Neither going anywhere in a hurry right now
SNB's Jordan says negative interest rates have proved very useful SNB head on the wires from an interview with newspaper
And helps repair the hole in SNB finances too eh?
As I've been highlighting many time in recent months
When asked about introducing a new CHF cap vs EUR at 1.1000 he said:
"The policy is clear. Negative interest rates and willingness to intervene in ccy market"
And of course we can trust them to stick to that. Can't we ?
USDCHDF and EURCHF unfazed but both a bit lower dragged by euro sales still
source
USD/CHF: Pair Has Trouble Holding Cycle Highs The USD/CHF pair was fighting for cycle highs, which are around ₣1.0240 as these were the last prices seen in January, a day before the shocker from the Swiss National Bank sent the pair 30% lower.
This resistance still wasn't conquered and confirmed by a clear daily close above and therefore bulls might get frustrated and close their long US dollar positions, if this level is not breached soon.
During the London session on Thursday, the pair was seen hovering around ₣1.0230, 0.3% higher on the day.
As the USD/CHF pair is negatively correlated to the EUR/USD pair and traders are expecting the European Central Bank to expand its QE program in December, the franc might weaken in the near-term due to the depreciation of the euro.
In the previous session, a set of US data was released. Firstly, durable goods for October improved rapidly from -0.8% to 3.0% month-on-month, while the ex-transport gauge ticked higher from -0.1% to 0.5%.
Personal spending, however, remained at 0.1% and fell short of expectations of 0.3%, with personal spending rising from 0.2% to 0.4%. Moreover, new home sales had grown 10.7% month-on-month and jumped from 447,000 to 495,000.
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USD/CHF breakout signals more gains - Barclays Year-to-date highs in USD/CHF yesterday The break higher in USD/CHF was accompanied by a surge in trading volumes, Barclays said, and that signals commitment to the move. They cite proprietary data for volume info.
"We see potential for significant upside in USD/CHF over the coming months," technical analysts at the firm said.
The break on higher volumes "points higher toward targets in the 1.0300 area and then 1.0630," they said.