Swiss franc news - page 6
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At least with CHF it is clear : SNB will always intervene
USD/CHF forecast for the week of July 20, 2015
The USD/CHF pair rose during the course of the week, slamming into the 0.95 level, and breaking above it. I’ve been saying for some time that the 0.96 level needed to be cleared in order to start going long. It appears that we are in fact going to do that, and as a result we are buyers on a break above the top of the range for the week as the US dollar continues to be favored in general. Pullbacks should be buying opportunities as it appears that we are building up momentum to the upside.
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Franc Gets Boost From Widening Trade Balance
The Swiss franc leaped against its US peer on Tuesday after it received fresh impetus from the latest trade balance data from the Alpine state that surprised on the upside.
The so-called Swissie gained 0.34% to ₣0.9613 versus the US dollar during the European mid-session. The pair started the day at around ₣0.964s and was seen in the positive earlier in the day.
The move came as data showed that Switzerland's trade surplus widened in June to ₣3.58 billion, compared with a revised ₣3.41 billion registered in the previous month. Market analysts had projected a ₣2.80 billion surplus during the sixth month of the year.
However, the franc's appreciation is most likely short-lived as the broad based US dollar strength is expected to push the USD/CHF pair higher later in the day.
Commerzbank analysis
"USD/CHF has eroded the 200 day ma at .9527 and the May high at .9543. We have a buy signal on the DMI indicator and the MACD is above zero," Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones wrote in a note.
"The break higher has introduced scope to .9725, the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the March high. The 2015 resistance line is also now in view at .9874."
"The market is bid while above the 0.9417 support line ahead of the 0.9359 55 day ma."
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EUR/CHF higher for fourth day. What's behind the bid?
EUR/CHF up 180 pips since Friday's low
The euro is threatening the highest levels since March against the Swiss franc. The displeasure of the Swiss National Bank with the strong franc is no secret but there aren't any clear signs of intervention.
When they've bought euros over the past two months, it was usually swift and strong. The move over the past week has been gradual.
What else could it be?
1) The euro is broadly higher this week after bottoming at 1.0808 on Monday.
2) Greek worries have ebbed and safe-haven funds could be finding their way out of Switzerland
EURCHF catches another bid in a rush
Lately the pair either sits on its hands or has a bit of a giddy moment
And we're seeing another spurt higher in late European trading from 1.0520 to 1.0557 in rapid time
SNB will be in the frame again of course with USDCHF finding a bid below 0.9600 after the earlier option expiry pushed it lower but it's a bit late in the day for them in theory
They've certainly put a line in the sand recently at 1.0400 though
Currently 1.0552,and 0.9618 with EURUSD happy to push higher with it to 1.0972
There's a barrier option at 1.0600 to be defended should we edge/rush closer. USDCHF has offers at 0.9630 and 0.9650
source
CHF: Risk Sentiment Key; We Stay Long USD/CHF Targeting 1.00 - Credit Agricole
The CHF has been capped, mainly on the back of subsiding worries related to Greece. Looking ahead, we expect the currency to remain driven by both stabilising risk sentiment and capped rate expectations.
Although rising Fed rate expectations are likely to keep investor demand for risk assets limited in the short-term, a further improving global growth outlook should ultimately compensate for tighter monetary conditions. Accordingly risk sentiment is unlikely to deteriorate sustainably.
When it comes to the SNB it appears unlikely that a less dovish monetary policy stance will be considered anytime soon. On the contrary, the still overvalued currency as well as weaker growth prospects should keep price developments muted and the SNB in a comfortable position to keep an aggressive stance.
As a result of these outlined conditions we remain in favour of selling CHF rallies, for instance against the USD. We remain long the pair.
**CA maintains a long USD/CHF position from 0.9325, with a stop at 0.90, and a target at 1.00.
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Swiss UBS consumption indicator June 1.68 vs 1.62 prev
Not price changing data
Switzerland KOF leading indicator July 99.8 vs 90.4 exp
Latest KOF indicator
The KOF Leading Indicators Index is designed to predict the direction of the economy over the following six months. The index is a composite reading of 12 economic indicators related to banking confidence, production, new orders, consumer confidence and housing.
USDCHF 0.9692 just backing off from 0.9702 highs
EURCHF 1.0624
Stronger dollar rises to 3-month highs vs. Swissie
The U.S. dollar rose to a three-month high against the Swiss franc on Thursday, as mounting expectations for a U.S. rate hike in September boosted the greenback and overshadowed an upbeat economic report from Switzerland.
USD/CHF hit 0.9715 during European morning trade, the pair's highest since April 23; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9709, up 0.33%.
The pair was likely to find support at 0.9599, Wednesday's low and resistance at 0.9769, the high of April 15.
The greenback strengthened broadly after the Fed gave no clear indication of the timing of the next rate hike, but left itself room to act as early as September, citing continued "solid" gains in the job market.
At the conclusion of the Fed's two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, the central bank said policy makers voted unanimously to keep U.S. interest rates unchanged and reiterated their dependency on data to determine plans for tightening monetary policy.
In Switzerland, data on Thursday showed that the KOF Leading Indicators Index rose to 99.8 this month from 89.8 in June, whose figure was upwardly revised from a previously estimated reading of 89.7.
Analysts had expected the index to rise to 90.3 in July.
The Swissie was also lower against the euro, with EUR/CHF edging up 0.19% to 1.0654.
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Swiss National Bank Reports Loss In H1
The Swiss National Bank posted a loss in the first half of the year largely caused by declines in the foreign currency positions.
The SNB logged a loss of CHF 50.1 billion in the first six months of 2015 compared to a profit of about CHF 16 billion last year. In the second quarter, loss totaled CHF 20 billion.
The loss on foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 47.2 billion in the first half of the year. The discontinuance of currency ceiling in January lifted the value of Swiss franc and in turn led to exchange rate-related losses on all investment currencies.
Further, a valuation loss of CHF 3.2 billion was recorded on gold holdings.