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USD/CHF forecast for the week of May 18, 2015
The USD/CHF pair fell during the course of the week, testing the bottom of the hammer from the previous week. We still see quite a bit of support near the 0.90 level, which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the massive bounce higher. Ultimately, we think that this market is probably going to actually touch the 0.90 level, and that it will more than likely be fairly choppy. With that, we are staying out of longer-term trades, but recognize that short-term opportunities in both directions may end up presenting themselves.
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USD/CHF: Pair Higher on Broad-Based Dollar Strength
Earlier today, the US dollar index extended this week's gains, adding 0.85% and breaking through the 95.000 mark, after the euro plunged following the ECB's announcement that it would frontload QE asset purchases in May and June. The euro has 57.6% of the weight in the US dollar index value calculation.
The recently released April building activity data was higher than at any other point in the recovery, and was a bright spot compared to the recent weak tone of US macro data. US builders broke ground on 1.135 million new sites in April, in annualized terms, which is an increase of 20.2% from a month earlier and dwarfs the 1.015 million starts the market had been expecting.
The USD/CHF currency pair advanced from an intraday low of ₣0.9244 to ₣0.9377, up 1.44% as the US dollar index reached the 95.450 mark - a level not seen since May 5.
Later today, the Swiss National Bank's Governing Board Vice-Chairman Jean-Pierre Danthine is due to deliver a speech entitled "Swiss Monetary Policy Facts and Fictions" in Geneva.
Tomorrow, the markets will closely watch the FOMC minutes, which might support the greenback further, if the tone remains neutral or slightly hawkish.
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There ill be no hawkish sentence in FOMC minutes, don't they remember the last FOMC statement?
There ill be no hawkish sentence in FOMC minutes, don't they remember the last FOMC statement?
What I do not understand is where does the whole correction is coming from when ECB clearly states (as well as Germans) that weak Euro is good for them
There ill be no hawkish sentence in FOMC minutes, don't they remember the last FOMC statement?
Dovish as hell - zero impact
What I do not understand is where does the whole correction is coming from when ECB clearly states (as well as Germans) that weak Euro is good for them
Google "Wall Street’s biggest banks admitted Wednesday to rigging currency markets". It will explain everything
USD/CHF forecast for the week of May 25, 2015
The USD/CHF pair broke higher during the course of the week, bouncing off of the 0.92 level. However, we have the vital 0.95 level just above, and we believe that will be somewhat resistive. With that being the case, we believe that longer-term traders can have to wait until we get a nice close on the daily chart above the 0.95 level in order to start going long. As far selling is concerned, we have no interest whatsoever in going so at the moment, especially considering that the US dollar is so strong all of a sudden.
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USD/CHF: Franc Shrugs off Swiss Q1 Contraction
The Swiss currency reversed initial losses versus its US peer during the European mid-session, after official data showed that the Swiss economy contracted in the first three months of the year.
The Franc was traded 0.26% higher at ₣0.9415 against the greenback. It started the session higher, but lost all of its gains immediately following the GDP print. Even so, it didn't hover in the red for a long time, as it rebounded later in the session.
Markets now await US GDP data for major impact on the forex market.
Meanwhile, it was 0.03% lower at ₣1.0335 against the euro.
Swiss contraction
Swiss GDP fell by 0.2% in the first three months of the year, worse than the stagnation that economists expected. During the last three months of the year, the economy grew 0.4% of GDP.
The strong Swiss franc is generally being blamed. "The trade balance in goods and services in particular delivered negative growth contributions," the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs wrote in a note on Friday.
The franc soared in January after its central bank gave up trying to keep it artificially weak. The move made Swiss exports less competitive.
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It wil contract even more when they beat ECB to lower negative interest rates than ECB
USD/CHF forecast for the week of June 15, 2015
The USD/CHF pair fell during the course of the week as we continue to see quite a bit of resistance in the 0.95 region. With that, we feel that the market is probably more likely to go lower from here, perhaps testing the 0.90 region again. However, we don’t see a lot of room to move at the moment, so quite frankly we are to simply sitting on the sidelines when it comes to trading the market. If we got above the 0.95 level, that would of course be very bullish, just as a break down below the 0.90 level would be extraordinarily bearish