Technical and Market Analysis by Vistabrokers - page 4
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Market Pulse 15.01
On Thursday, the market will be interested in data on GDP changes in Germany over the past year, as well as an important US statistics. Now investors are closely watching the US data, as they help to judge about the future behavior of the Fed with respect to monetary policy.
9:00 *** Real GDP Growth - 2014 (Germany)
9:00 *** Public Finances Balance-GDP Ratio - 2014 (Germany)
Strong impact on the market (EUR). Annual GDP is calculated based on preliminary data and is published before the data for the last quarter, so however, market participants keep a close watch in the time of publication. Unexpectedly strong data can support the euro, while the weak may cause currency sales and the risky assets refusal.
10:00 ** Trade Balance - November (Euro zone)
Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The trade balance is the difference between the value of exported and imported goods for the month. Strong data can be positive for the euro.
13:30 *** Producer Price Index - December(USA)
13:30 ** Core PPI - December(USA)
Strong impact on the market (USD). Change in the producer price index may be an early warning sign of inflationary trends change, or their confirmation. In general, the PPI growth contributes to the strengthening of the currency.
13:30 *** Unemployment Claims - January (USA)
13:30 ** Continuing Claims - January (USA)
Strong impact on the market (USD). This weekly indicator is becoming increasingly important due to the fact that the labor market is one of the main landmarks for the Fed. According to forecasts, during the reporting week the index rose more than a week earlier.
15:00 *** Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - January (USA)
Strong impact on the market (USD). Philadelphia Fed index is based on manufacturing companies survey. Values greater than zero reflect an improvement in business conditions, less than zero - deterioration.
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Vista Brokers: AustralianDollarRose only toFallevenFurther
On Thursday morning, the currency get the stimulus to growth after the publication of the unemployment rate and the employment change in Australia for December. So, for the first winter month, unemployment rate fell from 6.2% to 6.1%, while analysts expect its growth to 6.3%. The number of employees has grown much stronger than expected by 37.4K vs. forecast 5.3K.
Vista Brokers analysts note that the Australian dollar rally was short enough. The labor market data did not help the Australian dollar to recover from fears associated with the commodity market fall, which put a pressure on it. This week not only oil updated fresh lows, but also copper, on which the Australian economy depends on, has fallen dramatically in price.
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Vista Brokers: NationalBank of Switzerland Refused the 1.20 Franc per Euro Cap
On Thursday, the National Bank of Switzerland shocked the market, refusing the hard franc per euro cap at a level of 1.2, which was holden since 2011. Also the interest rate was reduced to -0.75%.
Vista Brokers analysts note that immediately after the announcement of the Bank of Switzerland franc rose by more than 30% against the dollar and the euro. Then, the rate stabilized at around +14%.
In the head of the Swiss regulator Thomas Jordan's statement it is said that the central bank has made such an unexpected decision, seeking to comply with changes in the monetary policy of the largest central banks: the Federal Reserve and the ECB. Analysts remind that the ECB may announce the launch of the quantitative easing program and the expansion of its balance sheet by 1 trillion euros during the next meeting on 22 January. As for the Fed, the US regulator plans to tighten monetary policy. Perhaps the Fed will tighten interest rates this summer.
Among the Thursday statistics may be noted the weak labor market data and the PhiladelphiaFedmanufacturingindex in the US. For the latest reporting week the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 316K instead of expected 299K. Continuing claims also rose more than analysts expected. As for the Philadelphia Fed index, it fell in January to 6.3 points versus revised 24.3 in December and expected 20.3.
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Market Pulse 16.01
On Friday, the market will wait for data on сonsumer price index in the euro area and in the United States, as well as for the Prelim University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment in the USA.
10:00 ** Final Consumer Price Index - December (Euro zone)
10:00 ** Final Consumer Price Index - Core - December (Euro zone)
Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Inflation is one of the key indicators, because the monetary policy usually depends on it. In December, experts expect a decrease of the index by 0.2%.
13:30 *** Consumer Price Index - December (US)
13:30 *** Core CPI - December (US)
13:30 ** Consumer Price Index - December (US)
13:30 ** Consumer Price Index Core Index - December (US)
Strong impact on the market (USD). In December, analysts expect a decrease of the consumer price index in the US by 0.3%. The index excluding prices for food and energy, according to the forecast, has increased by 0.1%. Exceeding the forecasts will be favorable for the dollar.
14:15 ** Capacity Utilization Rate - December (US)
14:15 ** Industrial Production - December (US)
Moderate impact on the market (USD). The level of capacity utilization allows us to estimate how much free capacity the economy has, or whether it is "overheated". Excess of 80% is considered to be dangerous for the development of inflationary pressures, ie the growth of the indicator supports the currency.
14:55 *** Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - January (USA)
Strong impact on the market (USD). The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. Allows us to estimate the confidence of consumers in the current and future state of the economy. Is a very important leading indicator of future costs. Exceeding the prognosis is favorable for the currency.
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Vista Brokers: IEA CommentsSupportedOil
Futures for Brent crude oil on Friday rose above $49 per barrel after the International Energy Agency had mentioned that the trend may still turn. However, analysts agree that in the near future, such a reversal is hardly possible, because the world production continues to exceed demand. Also concerns about the economic growth slowing remain.
Vista Brokers analysts reminde that oil prices have dropped by more than half since last June. Although the IEA experts believe that the trend reversal is possible in the current year, but it is nobody knows how much more the price can drop until it begins to rise. Nevertheless, Brent, which was traded on Thursday at $ 48 per barrel, was supported by comments of the International Energy Agency.
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Vista Brokers:USAConsumer SentimentatHighest in 11Years
On Friday, the dollar received significant support after the publication of data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan in the United States. For the first time since November 2003 the single currency fell below $ 1.15. During the trading day it has reached $ 1.146.
In January, the prelim UoMconsumersentiment index rose to 98.2 - the highest level since January 2004. In December, the indicator stood at 93.6, and analysts expected that it would grow only to 94.1. After the publication of these data, the dollar has stopped a five-day drop against the Japanese yen. The dollar index DXY rose on Friday from 92.16 to 92.75.
Vista Brokers analysts believe that the employment increase and the look down gasoline helped Americans to feel more positive on the prospects for economic growth.
Experts also point out that the pressure on the euro last week was provided by the Swiss National Bank's decision to scrap the franc’s cap. The decision came as a surprise to the markets, and the reaction to it was the high volatility and active movements of currency pairs, in which there is a franc. The JPMorgan Chase & Co's index, which shows the level of volatility in the currency markets, rose to 11.68 - a maximum from June 2013.
The Swiss National Bank kept the rate of EUR/CHF at around 1.20 since 2011. Also, the regulator announced the reduction of the main interest rate.
The new week in the financial markets will be marked by the expectation of the European Central Bank meeting on January 22. Investors expect that Mario Draghi will announce the launch of the quantitative easing program.
Market Pulse 19.01
Monday's economic calendar is almost empty. There will be no important information that could affect the markets.
11:00 ** Bundesbank Monthly Report - January (Germany)
Moderate impact on the market (EUR). In the monthly report, the Bundesbank publishes its global vision, and describes how the situation has changed in the intervening period. Publication rarely has a significant impact on the markets.
13:30 ** Foreign Securities Purchases - November (Canada)
Moderate impact on the market (CAD). Net purchases of Canadian securities by foreign investors. The growth of the surplus reflects the flow of money into the country from abroad, which is beneficial to the Canadian dollar.
14:45 **ECB Announces Covered Bond Purchase - January (Euro zone)
Moderate impact on the market (EUR). ECB announces its weekly balance sheet, from which investors and market observers conclude on the extent of the European Central Bank purchases securities on its balance sheet.
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Vista Brokers: Euro Flirts with 11-year Lows
On Monday, the euro is flirting with 11-year lows. Investors expect that the European Central Bank will announce the launch of the quantitative easing program this week.
Vista Brokers analysts note that the single currency last traded at $ 1.1557, near the level of $ 1.14595 reached on Friday. Against the Japanese yen, the euro is near a 3-month low, at around 135.17. Against the Canadian dollar the currency is trading at 16-month low of C$ 1.3749, reached on Friday.
Most experts believe that on the next meeting on January 22 the ECB will announce new steps of the economy stimulation. The question is only how the head of the regulator Mario Draghi will describe the action plan of the ECB, and what comments he will give on this occasion.
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Analysts expect the volatility in the markets at the end of the week will be high. Not only because of the ECB meeting, but also due to the upcoming elections in Greece. According to preliminary surveys of the electorate, the population prefers the radical left political forces, and if they come to power, the membership of Greece in the euro area will be open to question.
Vista Brokers: QEExpectations Support EuropeanMarkets
EUR/USD started Monday trades near 11-year lows. Most experts believe that on the next meeting on 22 January the ECB will announce new steps of the economy stimulation, and until Thursday, these expectations will influence on the market.
The euro decline was short-lived - the pair soon began to grow showing the biggest jump since December 16 to $ 1.1625. Late last week, the single currency has reached its lowest level since November 2003, trading against the dollar at $ 1.1460. However, a new week has given the euro a chance to reassert oneself.
The single currency also rose against the yen, versus which last week it was trading at the lowest level since October 16 - 134.71. Having lost 17% last week against the Swiss franc, the euro rebounded on Monday to around 1.0193.
Vista Brokers analysts point out that the belief that the ECB President Mario Draghi will announce the launch of quantitative easing (QE) this Thursday, is very high. This is confirmed by the Bloomberg survey, according to which 93% of respondents believe that the events will move in this way. Experts believe that Draghi will announce will announce a 550 billion-euro bond-purchase.
On these expectations European stock markets on Monday rose to a 7-year high. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose by 0.22% to 354.54, the highest closing level since January 2008.
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Market Pulse 20.01
On Tuesday the most interesting publications are ZEW indices, which will show the sentiment about the economy in Germany and in the euro zone. Canada will publish the data on changes in the volume of industrial supplies, which may have an impact on the Canadian dollar.
10:00 *** ZEW Economic Sentiment - January (Germany)
10:00 ** ZEW Survey (Current Situation) - January (Germany)
10:00 ** ZEW Economic Sentiment - January (euro zone)
Strong impact on the market (EUR). ZEW indices are closely monitored by markets, providing a noticeable influence on them immediately after publication. Analysts give optimistic forecasts in all three indices. If the evidence does not justify these expectations, the euro could come under pressure.
13:30 *** Manufacturing Sales - November (Canada)
Strong impact on the market (CAD). Manufacturing Sales can serve as an early indicator of the acceleration or deceleration of economic activity. The growth is favorable for the Canadian dollar.
13:45 ** BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe Speaks - January (UK)
Moderate impact on the market (GPB). John Kanlif holds the post of Deputy Governor of the Bank of England's financial stability. He is a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, so his comments are relevant to the market.
15:00 ** FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks - January (USA)
Moderate impact on the market (USD). Jerome Powell is actively involved in the Fed monetary policy creating. His comments may have an impact on the market as they show the attitude of FOMC members.
15:00 ** NAHB Housing Market Index - January (USA)
Moderate impact on the market (USD). The indicator is based on a survey of 900 developers in respect of current and future sales of private homes. Rarely has an impact on the market.
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