Euro Dollar Rate Forecasts for 2014-2015 - page 9
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bearish euro bets reach extreme levels
Weekly sentiment index published on Monday revealed that speculators added to their bearish bets against the euro in the week ending April 17.
According to the report, 27.2% of investors held long positions in EUR/USD as of last week, down from 33.7% in the preceding week. A reading below 30% indicates oversold conditions.
Meanwhile, 34.8% of investors were long in GBP/USD, compared to 41.9% a week earlier, 54.7% of market participants held long positions in USD/JPY, up from 51.0% in the preceding week, while 50.1% of investors were long USD/CHF, improving from 47.3% in the previous week.
Amongst the commodity-linked currencies, 51.6% were long USD/CAD, up from 48.5% a week earlier, 30.3% held long positions in AUD/USD, compared to 27.4% in the preceding week, while 34.5% were long NZD/USD, down from 40.6% a week earlier.
Elsewhere, 31.3% of investors were long the S&P 500 as of last week, up slightly from 30.1% in the preceding week.
In the commodities market, 52.9% of market participants held long positions in gold futures as of last week, compared to 56.7% in the preceding week.
A reading between 50%-70% is bullish for the instrument, a reading between 30% and 50% is bearish, a reading above 70% indicates overbought conditions and a reading below 30% indicates oversold conditions.
The Investing.com series of indexes is developed in-house. Each index measures overall exposure to major currency pairs, commodities and indexes, using data from futures exchanges and OTC providers on all long and short open positions.
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A Greek default within the zone – the worst for EUR – SocGen
The euro seems to be paying more attention to teh troubles in Greece and less to US indicators and euro-zone ones.
All in all, EUR/USD is trading within a wide range for quite some time. These moves are quite interesting, but a more interesting move would be a break down out of the range towards parity. This scenario could make the break, according to Kit Juckes of SocGen:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
“The Greek crisis was ignored by the FX market last week as peripheral spreads widened and the Euro rallied. This morning, it is cited as the reason for the Euro to be softer and the dollar to be rallying again.
The reasons given for day-to-day gyrations of EUR/USD within its broad 1.0450-1.1050 range need to be taken with a pinch of salt!
However, a Greek default without ‘Grexit’, might be the single most negative outcome for the Euro, and ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio, pointedly observed that default doesn’t automatically imply exit. Meanwhile, as the government scrambles around for cash, there is much talk of Greece introducing a parallel currency.”
Kit Juckes – SocGen
Greek default without grexit will make what SNB did a kids game. The change would be so big that there is barely a broker that could survive that
Q3 Fed Hike To Take EUR/USD Below Parity; We Target 0.95 – SEB
EUR/USD continues trading in the wide 1.0450 to 1.1050 range and sometimes in a more narrow range. What could take the pair down?
The team at SEB weighs in:
Here is their view :
As US macroeconomic data have been a weaker than expected since the beginning of 2015, this has delayed expectations on Fed tightening according to market pricing, notes SEB Group.
“Usually we would expect this would be fairly well reflected in the EUR/USD exchange rate. However, because of extensive bond purchases by the ECB and probably several other reasons including offshore dollar funding, a lower oil price and capital flows of reserve managers, the dollar remains in demand. Consequently, EUR/USD has instead been consolidating in recent weeks rather than correcting higher,” SEB argues.
“As EUR/USD currently trades around 1.07 despite waning expectations on Fed tightening, we have lowered our EUR/USD forecast for the end of this year to 0.95 from parity. Subsequently we expect the combination of more positive news on the US economy later this year and the Fed delivering two hikes in 2015 (in September and December to 0.6%) and even more to 1.50% in the following year to benefit the dollar,” SEB projects.
“As a result, EUR/USD may easily move below parity as the ECB continues to expand its balance sheet. Also, it is hard to imagine Greece’s problems will recede unless it defaults on its debt, which would create additional euro-related uncertainty,” SEB adds.
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There will be no rate hike - Bernanke told that long time ago
Goldman's entire outlook for markets and the economy in one slide
Markets are recovering from Friday's big selloff, with stocks in Europe and the US rallying.
West Texas Intermediate crude prices are near year-to-date highs, while gold is falling.
In a recent note, Goldman economist Jan Hatzius said he sees US economic growth bouncing back in the second quarter after a below-trend first quarter.
As for what else the rest of the year holds, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin included the following slide in his US Weekly Kickstart note, summing up the firm's outlook for every major market in 2015 and beyond.
source
Trend for EURUSD still bearish. The moment we stop thinking so, it will go down again
Goldman Sachs EUR/USD Elliot Wave view - "still one last leg lower"
A Goldman Sachs EUR/USD Elliot Wave view.While not a user myself I know there are plenty of Elliot Wave people out there. What say ye about GS' analysis?
It hit it today. Now what is next?
EUR/USD: Getting Very Tricky – Goldman Sachs
EUR/USD is moving up but is still in the wide range. The pair is getting tricky according to the team at Goldman Sachs.
With the loonie, the picture seems clearer: USD/CAD is in a sharp hammer pattern.
Here is their view :
EUR/USD has been very tricky as of late with the market testing the zone around 1.0911-1.0914 – 76.4% retrace of the Apr. 6th/13th drop and 76.4% of the swing target from Apr. 13th, notes Goldman Sachs.
“The break opens topside risks to 1.0988-1.10 which includes the full extension from Apr. 13th and the trend across the highs since Mar. 18th,’ GS argues.
“While it’s still possible that this is wave ii of a v wave from the Apr. 6 th high, it’s also worth considering whether this is a broader, extended version of a triangle that started in mid-March (perhaps we were pre-mature in chasing the break-out?). If this is true, would really need a break below the Mar. 15th/Apr. 13th trendline (triangle support) to confirm that the next leg lower is taking place. This comes in all the way down at 1.0548,” GS adds.
All in all, GS argues that while EUR/USD current technical set-up suggests that there is room to see further sideways/choppy price action, the broader underlying structure is still intact targeting the 1.618 extension zone from the May ‘14 high and projecting it off of current levels implies that wave 5 could go roughly to ~1.01.
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